CAPE

Even with the baroclinic boundary suppressed for midweek way down along the Gulf and SE coast with developing low pressure tracking off NC and then likely offshore from there, as advertised there is a strong jet streak that moves over the MA with some NS vorticity at h5. Decent mid level moisture advection combined with lift underneath the right rear quadrant of that jet streak could produce an area of light to moderate snow that is pretty far removed from the actual SE low. That seems to be what the GFS is depicting for places along/SE of I-95. Ofc I am a bit drunk and high so I could be wrong.

Hate to say it, but the 12z runs will be YUGE. Euro evolution/track is fine, but it's a bit dry. Don't want to see it do what the GFS did last run, and need the GFS to take a step towards the outcome it had in its previous few runs.

There are a few members on the 6z GEFS that get some snow up this way, and a few others are close. Its going to be a fight with Arctic cold HP entrenched.

Euro is still ok. GFS took a step towards the CMC, and the depicted dry slot on the latest run is the biggest problem for the lower eastern shore. Inland/tucked low won't end well.

SBY gets .05" total qpf on that run lol

It's not really even a mix line. Hideous dry slot. Some light precip as the low pulls north. That track isn't good for over here but more like the CMC, which has been pretty consistent.

A light dusting and some big flakes flying out there now. Not expecting much but at least a little something.

Looks pretty on WB.

Graphically it's fucking beautiful on WB. That precip shield. The shape and symmetry of it makes you think.. KU. But alas we know isn't. It's AI.

Your geography is just a little off over here my man. That's more like Chestertown lol.

I swear when I read it I thought you must have been involved lol. Awesome.

Yeah one over you and one over me lol

You still get more snow than me most winters.

I'll happily take 3 inches of snow and no rain and not give a damn what you get. It's all about me, remember?

I just like the track and that it's on the colder end of guidance lol. I like seeing snow in S DE.

I think I am past that with the Ravens after the AFC championship last year. Buffalo will be tough, the weather will be bitter and probably windy. If they lose playing 'their game' and don't make a bunch of mistakes and give it away, I will be ok with it. I'll root for the Bills to beat the Chiefs, who have become pretty damn annoying.

Seems odd to worry about liquid given your location and the fact this wave is moving along an Arctic boundary pushing southeastward. Some recent trends make it a potential issue for us eastern folks. I am way over worrying about things I have no control over. Whatever happens, happens.

Latest Heavy snow disco from WPC- Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Day 3... A trailing wave along the southern periphery of the Arctic front will exit out of the southeastern U.S with an expectation for the wave to amplify as it approaches the Southern Mid Atlantic with attendant surface cyclogenesis across the Deep South, moving northeast. Recent ensemble and deterministic output via the 12z suite of NWP has become increasingly aggressive with the signal for a low end moderate event for heavy snow prospects, mainly from southwestern VA up through the Central Mid Atlantic, eventually bleeding into the periods following as the pattern shifts northeast up through the Northern Mid Atlantic (PA/NY) and Southern New England. There has been some discrepancy within the suite on the exact placement of the heaviest precip potential with a split on two camps favoring a more amplified setup (UKMET/CMC) and a less amplified evolution (ECMWF) with the GFS now solidly in the middle of the two camps. ECMWF AIFS ML output has been very steady over the course of the last 3+ days of output with the latest run showing great consistency when assessing run-to-run variability. This lends credence to a slightly better confidence with regards to snowfall potential across the area with the probabilities of >4" going from close to 0% overnight towards (10-30%) within a span of one run. It's a period to monitor as heavy snowfall threat would impact the population centers of the DMV up through Philadelphia and points northeast in the periods beyond.

Kinda splitting hairs here. The 6z Euro has 4-6 along I-95, and a little less NW and SE.

Well it flipped(or flopped) in conjunction with the GFS. What do we make of this?

Yeah that may be increased depending on the next few model cycles. Their general thinking I believe is that the push of Arctic air will favor coastal development more southward/offshore.

I get what you are saying, but there are always multiple variables at play that factor in to the ultimate outcome. In this case it is more where the thermal boundary is located vs a more amped wave. The flow is relatively flat and west to east, and the vorticity is stretched out accordingly, underneath an upper level jet streak. Compare the vorticity on the 6z GFS and 6z Euro runs. No real dig in either case, and a subtle difference in the boundary location. For all practical purposes their outcomes are the same. In this situation the heavier snow(such that it will be) could be biased a bit NW or SE.