CAPE

Yeah my bad I was looking at the 6 hour p-type map. Sorry @Weather Will

Can you at least wait for the run to finish? lol damn.

3km NAM is still lovely for my yard. 18z even better. Wish it could be real lol.

I am in the woods with snow cover. My station usually runs a degree warm compared to nearby obs.

Pretty close, but want it to be neutral/slightly negative right there. That could work for a coastal scraper, but more likely offshore.

39 here currently. Was 41 around noon. Forecast high of 45.

This is a strong Arctic front. The R/S line will be moving southeastward pretty quickly once the precip gets going. The Canadians with the further NW low track would delay that and be a bigger problem for the coastal plain, but most other guidance is in pretty good agreement the cold push is more aggressive.

Actually gets a little more precip over my yard this run. Canadians aside, temps aren't really an issue here other than at the beginning of the event. Missing the area of strong lift on most guidance is..

Need that area of lift to expand a tad further southeast. As is probably starts as drizzle and changes to snizzle and pixie dust lol. Temps get good here fairly early on the GFS but paltry qpf.

Hugging the 3k NAM. It's the only model that gets heavier precip here and its all snow. Given the rest of the current guidance, I'm not expecting more than an inch or 2 with this one.

Probably more favored in an El Nino with an active STJ, and especially with NA blocking and a quieter NS. A good chunk of our snowstorms are hybrid/Miller B, including at least one of the big 3 during the 2009-10 winter.

6z Euro looks similar wrt precip in our area, but slightly further SE. As I said in a post last evening, its very unlikely that southeastern surface low gets anywhere near our area. The vorticity from the digging shortwave plus the right rear quad of a strong jet streak modeled to be overhead would provide the lift. Just need some moisture advection. Monitoring this potential won't involve a northwest trend of the low as much as the exact location and strength of these features aloft/moisture availability. Note snow starting to develop in our area on this panel as that piece of UL energy approaches. It blossoms and fills in further SE on the next panel then slides off the coast. To me this looks like a potential light to moderate, relatively short duration fluff deal with high ratios.

Looks like 22 to me. 44%

Why don't you want to see Lamar Jackson win one? Every bit as scintillating to watch, if not more, and just as likeable a person. Ravens are a more talented team top to bottom, and pretty fun to watch. That said, I respect your decision as a neutral fan, wrong as it may be.

Its actually called uncertainty. Probably won't see it on the GEFS because of the under dispersive nature of the model. Hug it if you love it. It might be correct.

Remember what you said- it's all about me. I'll gladly take it. Come to papa.

Its also more correctly depicting the cold air advection given the impressive nature of the Arctic front imo. That could translate to somewhat drier, but it typically does this and juices up closer to game time. Canadians are very likely out to lunch in underdoing the cold push, with the surface low too far NW.

Drinking a DFH Fruit-full Fort. Good stuff. 16% typical. Great sipper with complex dark fruit notes. Puts you in a great place, much like drinking a 120.

Yeah I am the same with weed. And I usually pay for it the next day. Weed hangover blah feeling.

Oh I am, but I also think I'm right about how it could snow up this way with a suppressed coastal low.

Even with the baroclinic boundary suppressed for midweek way down along the Gulf and SE coast with developing low pressure tracking off NC and then likely offshore from there, as advertised there is a strong jet streak that moves over the MA with some NS vorticity at h5. Decent mid level moisture advection combined with lift underneath the right rear quadrant of that jet streak could produce an area of light to moderate snow that is pretty far removed from the actual SE low. That seems to be what the GFS is depicting for places along/SE of I-95. Ofc I am a bit drunk and high so I could be wrong.

Hate to say it, but the 12z runs will be YUGE. Euro evolution/track is fine, but it's a bit dry. Don't want to see it do what the GFS did last run, and need the GFS to take a step towards the outcome it had in its previous few runs.

There are a few members on the 6z GEFS that get some snow up this way, and a few others are close. Its going to be a fight with Arctic cold HP entrenched.

Euro is still ok. GFS took a step towards the CMC, and the depicted dry slot on the latest run is the biggest problem for the lower eastern shore. Inland/tucked low won't end well.

SBY gets .05" total qpf on that run lol