CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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And the heavier snow is south and east. @psuhoffman
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A stronger piece of vorticity pops a surface low sooner/a bit closer to the coast.
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EPS looks pretty good. Throwing out the CMC, this looks like a weak wave moving along an Arctic front with the potential to produce a quick hitting minor snow event, with legit cold coming in on the heels.
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This logic seems silly. This is the best Euro run of the last 4. You mean if it was a bit further SE there wouldn't be that 4"+ 'jackpot'. Come on lol. That 4-5" area easily could be a bit further NW, or SE, depending on the exact location of the boundary, sharpness of the shortwave and associated dynamics. etc.
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I'll take it. The last few runs are all "weak". This is not going to be a significant event. A little snow before the Arctic blast is fine.
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DeCosta is so good lol
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As it has been for the most part.
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People tend to freak out and misinterpret a mean when they see this look. Oh noes a SER!! There are paths to victory with this advertised h5 pattern on the ensembles.
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High of 30. Currently 27. Still 95% snow cover in my wooded abode. Driving in the open areas there are some large bare spots in places mostly due to the perpetual wind thinning the snowpack, plus the sun doing its thing.
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EPS and CMC ens have been trending in that direction for late month. GEFS took a step towards that today.
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6z GEFS for late next week
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High of 32 early. Upper 20s late afternoon. Currently 23 at 6pm.
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Much better upstairs, and reflected at the surface. re
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Shortwave digging
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He is who we thought he was. Panics under pressure. Holds the ball too long. Makes poor decisions. Seeing ghosts. Lucky for the Vikings the last 2 games happened.
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The EPS is hinting at a Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain towards the end of the month. This was showing up on guidance a week or so ago but then it backed off. If the EPO ridge does shift back towards the Aleutians, some help in the NA should mitigate the SER tendency.
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There are some differences in the advertised longwave pattern between the globals. Euro digs the trough more than the GFS and delays the eastward progress of the thermal boundary a bit. Shortwave energy and associated surface low track is further NW.
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Not much interest on the GEFS for Sunday-Monday.
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Is that the Tony Pann model?
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Better than 12z. Trending in the right direction, but not quite there yet.
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HH GFS be good
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Spire lol. What's the Panasonic showing?
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