CAPE

Darnold is off tonight I'm guessing. Haven't really seen him play much this year but given their success he must be a lot better than this.

28/7 Probably 5 hrs or so for first flakes here.

A bit offshore on the ens mean

Loaded

What kind of weenie am I posting a 10:1 map lol

30.5 lol

I did lol. Got the leaf blower out to clear the random leaves that blew back from the woods too.

Interesting snippet from their afternoon AFD- As far as the storm, It is currently located near Arkansas with banded F-Gen driven heavy snow located north and east of its center towards the midwestern states. In terms of overall trends in the forecast as far as how it will affect the mid Atlantic, there continue to be some differences in our forecast guidance regarding the exact track and evolution of system. Generally speaking, global guidance weakens the banding a lot more as it approaches the area and has heavier precip amounts farther south compared to the Hi-res guidance. Our forecast leans more towards the higher QPF of the hi-res guidance but has it shifted slightly south a little more towards the Global guidance. This is based on overall trends and reports from how the system is evolving upstream.

Backend fluff still going. Temps in low 20s.

18z 3Km NAM is incredibly nice

31 Wind dying down a bit. Frozen ground(with lots of lumps and ridges-effing moles)

How long have you been back in the area?

The EPS re-strengthens the -NAO just beyond mid month with a ridge retrograding from Scandinavia. Impressive NA look. There should be continued east coast winter storm chances.

Hard to get a more favorable h5 look than this leading up to an east coast storm. Always a risk of non snow p-types if a storm winds up or hugs the coast. The general look up top- a west based/weakening -NAO and an impressive 50-50 low tends to favor a track along/just off the coast.

6z GEFS

Pretty impressive snow mean for this range. There are plenty of members with snow for the lowlands, including some SE of our region.

I tend to agree, but they have owned the Ravens lately, minus the game a couple weeks ago.

I certainly won't check them lol. Snow depth maps aren't really relevant when there is a cold air mass in place/low sun angle- basically if melting/compaction isn't an issue.

It's looking like the Ravens will be playing the Steelers in the first round. They are reeling. Their offense is impotent. Wilson is washed. Don't fuck it up Ravens.

Yeah I mentioned this in the storm thread- the wide min to max range for forecast snowfall totals is an indication of the unusual uncertainty across the guidance at this range.

LOL Not less than 30 hours from game time. And you run a weather page...

Went from 6 to 14 in my yard in one run. Volatile.

I think I have. But its a legacy product set for retirement so I pay no attention to it.

I generally don't look at it until game time. When the radar is lit up immediately to our west I will consider it.

I mostly stay out of the storm thread when we get to this point. Gets annoying.