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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
    Recent cycles have ejected significant energy and the outcome in those cases has been a low cutting west/ Miller B. 6z GFS does the latter, but the coastal gets going at our latitude. Still a range of possibilities imo. Timing with energy moving into/through the 50-50 region is also going to be a key factor in the outcome. Everything is on the move.
  2. CAPE
    0z EPS- The primary energy ejecting from the SW does pop a low along the Gulf coast and moves off the NC coast. It gets some precip into the MA on the mean. Cold looks marginal but interior areas at elevation might be in a good spot should precip make it there. Just beyond that it looks mild with a temporary ridge over the east. Then we shall see about the potential around the 20th or so.
  3. CAPE
    There is a drama free thread where we discuss the nuts and bolts of the pattern and possible outcomes, with no judgment or emotional silliness.
  4. CAPE
    Love their early stuff, esp this one.
  5. CAPE
    And other rational, smart people who choose to join in. But I'm good talking to myself lol.
  6. CAPE
    Temp has been around 17 since early this morning. Was 20 at 6am. The high temp is probably 30 which occurred just after midnight prior to the Arctic front.
  7. CAPE
    18z GFS crushes the initial wave as the NS vortex digs too far south and exits, then the unfavorable Pacific takes over. The HP from the initial NS confluence exits stage right with no NA blocking, and the result its a cutter with mostly rain. Just one of many possible outcomes. Only a week to go!
  8. CAPE
    Glad to see the forecast of 55-60 mph winds hasn't verified. Not even close by my estimation. Maybe 40-45? eta: just checked Ridgely Mesonet- Max gust 45.7 mph
  9. CAPE
    Usually get some great snow devils here with all the wide open fields, but the glacier with no additional snow on top prevents that. Also prevents the blowing and drifting from making a continuous mess of the roads.
  10. CAPE
    Its Miller B-ish. Would like to see the secondary further south, but ofc we have an eternity for the models to correct their errors.
  11. CAPE
    $12,500
  12. CAPE
    Took this at Tuckahoe yesterday.
  13. CAPE
    A couple shots from Kent Narrows.
  14. CAPE
    I agree. The cold is very dependent on the NS wave train as vortices in the flow move through the 50-50 region. We don't have a typical NAO Rex block with a quasi-stationary/closed (50-50) low underneath a poleward ridge, so the confluence is fleeting.
  15. CAPE
    Snow maps galore. 50 miles east or west or north or south. A week out lol. Back to the other thread. I would rather talk to myself.
  16. CAPE
    12z EPS has the same general idea as the op with this 'frontrunning' midwestern wave Friday into early Sat- Then here later with energy ejecting from the SW. They don't play well together like the op. That said there is some precip for our area on the mean. Still a week out and given the likely errors with wave timing at this point, it will evolve/morph into something else.
  17. CAPE
    We are relying on the NA, but there isn't really a true block to slow the flow, so timing really is critical with these features.
  18. CAPE
    Yeah the GEFS. EPS comes out slow on WB, but the 6z EPS was even better than the GEFS- had a bit of a suppressed look which I will take at this range.
  19. CAPE
    Gonna be a cutter on the 12z ens mean. Was more of a Miller B at 6z.
  20. CAPE
    Pretty good synopsis.
  21. CAPE
    Good look on the 12z GEFS leading into the potential weekend storm. Energy in the 50-50 region is in a good spot with surface HP underneath in the convergence/confluence zone. Energy is ejecting from the southwest with surface low development.
  22. CAPE
    There is now another winter thread you can post in that is free of pettiness and drama.
  23. CAPE
    Wasted cold though. No refresher snow the whole time we have had the glacier, with only a couple days a few degrees above freezing.
  24. CAPE
    Yes. I hit on some of that in my intro post. As you said, that 50-50 low is vital for this to work out, but we don't want it displaced too far south as has been depicted on some recent op runs. Weakens/suppresses the shortwave southward without enough space.
  25. CAPE
    Favorable upper levels and surface leading into the next weekend potential. Need to keep an eye on wave spacing, any minor wave(s) moving east in the flow midweek vs the bulk of the energy being ejected from the southwest later, and the strength/ position of NS energy near the 50-50 region. Good surface and upper level depiction leading into a potential winter storm-
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