CAPE

Could add a little today with scattered showers/storms in the forecast.

5.2" for the month per my station. That's a little more than average for May.

0.82"

SPC expanded the slight risk area northward. Now covers almost all VA and MD east of the mountains.

Looks like some scattered storms may fire late tonight/early AM tomorrow along and east of I-95 from SW to NE. Most guidance depicts this.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri May 30 2025 - 12Z Sat May 31 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...20Z Update... Continued increases in the forecast rainfall from the 12Z guidance suite, sufficient instability for storms, ample upper level forcing from a strong shortwave that rapidly turns negatively tilted, and soil sensitivity due to recent heavy rainfall have all worked to increase the concern for flash flooding across portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Friday and Friday night. Generally, the convection will track from west to east...so the portion of the Slight in Kentucky really focuses on Friday morning, whereas the portion in northern New Jersey is primarily focused on after midnight Friday night. Soil sensitivity to flash flooding is high as soil moisture levels remain well above the normal for this time of year due to rain as recently as yesterday, and not including any shower and isolated thunderstorm activity probable around the DMV region the afternoon and this evening. Further, possible repeating rounds of heavy rain on Friday interacting with the terrain and full rivers should cause onset of flash flooding to occur sooner...closer to the rainfall start time...in these areas, making any potential flooding more hazardous in West Virginia. Further east, urban concerns will increase the potential impacts from flash flooding. The storms will also occur in the afternoon and evening, during the diurnal warmest time of day, which will add more instability for the storms to feed on. Given all of the above, have introduced a higher end Slight from eastern Kentucky to the Baltimore metro. The 12Z HREF suite shows an over 50% chance of exceeding 6-hour FFGs across the DMV. The Slight Risk area was expanded northeast across the Philadelphia Metro and much of northern New Jersey with this update. While the storms will impact this region Friday evening and into the overnight, here too recent heavy rainfall will make flash flooding more common compared to if the soils were dry. By Friday evening a coastal low will be rapidly forming, and so instability will be waning as the precipitation shield evolves into more of a comma shape, with the heaviest rains along the Delaware River on the cold/more stable side of the low. Nevertheless, remnant instability and long duration of rainfall will still cause widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Check out the HRDPS. Looks like a Derecho lol.

Based on the 6z GFS and 6z HRRR, the 6z NAM may have shit the bed. Clean up by 12z.

Yeah the light rain has added up a bit. Up to 1.42" here.

Per WPC much of the region is marginal for excessive rainfall.

18z 3km NAM looks intriguing.

SPC AC 281926 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible Friday afternoon through late Friday evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Pattern amplification will occur Friday as one shortwave trough progresses from the Mid-South to the southeast Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic coast, in advance of another wave digging southward over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cyclone will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and to the southern New England coast by Saturday morning, while a trailing cold front crosses the Gulf coast, north FL and the southeast Atlantic coast. Within cloud breaks the warm sector will consist of afternoon temperatures near or above 80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, which will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg and minimal convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon. Increasing midlevel flow with time and forcing for ascent along and just ahead of the front will support storm initiation with the potential for storm clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. If wave timing and thermodynamic profiles remain favorable, some portion of this area may warrant an upgrade in later updates.

And the next one-

1.3" Just light interment rain after the heavier stuff this morning. Nice event. Plants look happy.

1.15" Almost all of that fell since 5am. Looks like lighter/more showery rain for the rest of the afternoon.

The coastal is getting going now. Heavier rain moving up from the S/SW in the next few hours. 0.62" so far.

Only a tenth here overnight but steady rain the last couple hours. Looks like a soaker with 1-2" forecast for today.

Dandelions and Wild Violets for me. The latter spreads like crazy and hard to kill.

Here they come!! Only 9 games out of the final wildcard spot ( I think) with over 100 games to go.

Looks like warmer times may lie ahead with a shift in the longwave pattern showing up on the ensembles.

Low of 49. Currently 65 heading into the noon hour. Simply spectacular.

57 here currently after a high of 68. Perfect day imo. The wind is a nitpick. Felt great outside.

Yeah I have plenty of moss. Where it grows, I leave it, but weeds grow through it. One side of my back yard(the area over the septic drain field) gets a lot of sun in the summer, and it wont grow there.

That's exactly where I got the wildflower seed mix I planted in the Spring. Great website. For the rest of the back garden area, I want a clover field lawn with wildflowers mixed in. I will probably just buy white clover seeds and the flower seeds from American meadows and mix it in. That link in my other post was for the picture- showing the look I want(minus the grass).

Back in early Spring I planted a bunch of native wildflower seeds at the back part of the yard near the edge of the woods. Lots of growth there now and starting to see beginnings of some blooms. I was thinking of making most of my back yard clover + wildflowers. Tired of dealing with the grass that never survives the Summer and constant reseeding process. White clover naturally takes over in those areas anyway, so why not just plant the stuff. Low maintenance drought tolerant ground cover. Something like this from The Vermont Wildflower Farm, although this seed mix also has some grass mixed in- https://www.vermontwildflowerfarm.com/products/magic-carpet-mix?variant=46441269920051&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=209329693&gbraid=0AAAAAD-xHrEgHFgrwptzJzqv-zz5ffLaA&gclid=CjwKCAjw3MXBBhAzEiwA0vLXQQSxPeRduIIZfvkIVk0P13QBd_cZ8nhsqIvaqhVr8ceckp02xKXd2hoCHWIQAvD_BwE