CAPE

It's not really even a mix line. Hideous dry slot. Some light precip as the low pulls north. That track isn't good for over here but more like the CMC, which has been pretty consistent.

A light dusting and some big flakes flying out there now. Not expecting much but at least a little something.

Looks pretty on WB.

Graphically it's fucking beautiful on WB. That precip shield. The shape and symmetry of it makes you think.. KU. But alas we know isn't. It's AI.

Your geography is just a little off over here my man. That's more like Chestertown lol.

I swear when I read it I thought you must have been involved lol. Awesome.

Yeah one over you and one over me lol

You still get more snow than me most winters.

I'll happily take 3 inches of snow and no rain and not give a damn what you get. It's all about me, remember?

I just like the track and that it's on the colder end of guidance lol. I like seeing snow in S DE.

I think I am past that with the Ravens after the AFC championship last year. Buffalo will be tough, the weather will be bitter and probably windy. If they lose playing 'their game' and don't make a bunch of mistakes and give it away, I will be ok with it. I'll root for the Bills to beat the Chiefs, who have become pretty damn annoying.

Seems odd to worry about liquid given your location and the fact this wave is moving along an Arctic boundary pushing southeastward. Some recent trends make it a potential issue for us eastern folks. I am way over worrying about things I have no control over. Whatever happens, happens.

Latest Heavy snow disco from WPC- Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Day 3... A trailing wave along the southern periphery of the Arctic front will exit out of the southeastern U.S with an expectation for the wave to amplify as it approaches the Southern Mid Atlantic with attendant surface cyclogenesis across the Deep South, moving northeast. Recent ensemble and deterministic output via the 12z suite of NWP has become increasingly aggressive with the signal for a low end moderate event for heavy snow prospects, mainly from southwestern VA up through the Central Mid Atlantic, eventually bleeding into the periods following as the pattern shifts northeast up through the Northern Mid Atlantic (PA/NY) and Southern New England. There has been some discrepancy within the suite on the exact placement of the heaviest precip potential with a split on two camps favoring a more amplified setup (UKMET/CMC) and a less amplified evolution (ECMWF) with the GFS now solidly in the middle of the two camps. ECMWF AIFS ML output has been very steady over the course of the last 3+ days of output with the latest run showing great consistency when assessing run-to-run variability. This lends credence to a slightly better confidence with regards to snowfall potential across the area with the probabilities of >4" going from close to 0% overnight towards (10-30%) within a span of one run. It's a period to monitor as heavy snowfall threat would impact the population centers of the DMV up through Philadelphia and points northeast in the periods beyond.

Kinda splitting hairs here. The 6z Euro has 4-6 along I-95, and a little less NW and SE.

Well it flipped(or flopped) in conjunction with the GFS. What do we make of this?

Yeah that may be increased depending on the next few model cycles. Their general thinking I believe is that the push of Arctic air will favor coastal development more southward/offshore.

I get what you are saying, but there are always multiple variables at play that factor in to the ultimate outcome. In this case it is more where the thermal boundary is located vs a more amped wave. The flow is relatively flat and west to east, and the vorticity is stretched out accordingly, underneath an upper level jet streak. Compare the vorticity on the 6z GFS and 6z Euro runs. No real dig in either case, and a subtle difference in the boundary location. For all practical purposes their outcomes are the same. In this situation the heavier snow(such that it will be) could be biased a bit NW or SE.

12 here this morning. I think the forecast low was 16. Clear skies, no wind, and snowpack.

A little lol. Other people still reply. I don't ignore, I just take a break when regulars get edgy and randomers show up.

Odd compliment. There is context to my post going back to last night. I think it's probably unlikely we see an amped wave in this situation with warning level snow. Everything looks progressive to me. Could be wrong. Go look at the members on the 0z EPS run.

Anyway I will bow out for awhile. It's that time of the winter.

You're an asshole as usual. Maybe read the thread before making dumb post.