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The advertised look for mid month looks prime for a major east coast snowstorm. The 0z GEFS 13-16th window is active.

It would help if it was actually located at 50-50. As modeled it is displaced too far SW.

z, g, whatever lol

All the latest model runs have 6" here. I'm way good with that.

Better

Yeah I'm kinda down with that.

Some crazy ass h5 looks we are seeing. Mid month and its snowing on the Gulf coast here verbatim. I doubt it lol. More likely a setup for our KU.

HNY weather weenies. Shocked I am still conscious.

Tis good.

I like that eastward extension over my yard. 6" is nothing to sneeze at. I'm told.

I'll take it and run with more chances to come. Hell yeah.

NFL MVP disco- Weird but it seems only QBs can win it now, and it has become almost exclusively stats driven. That being the case, Lamar Jackson should win it. I don't like that criteria, but if that's it, the Josh Allen love among many pundits doesnt make sense. If there are other considerations, then maybe he is in the discussion, but then why isnt Sam Darnold, or Jared Goff? One of them would be just as deserving as Allen if other factors like team wins were considered. I guess the perception is- it is just Josh Allen's time? Lol that's arbitrary crap.

I've smoked some weed, drank a couple big ass stouts.. hoping I will still be conscious in another hour.

And on NYE.. fuck yeah. Like going to a Killers or Strokes concert. Must experience it at least once in life.

An atmospheric block involves both a ridge and a trough. The NAO block is typically a Rex configuration- the ridge up top and the trough/vortex to the south. Self sustaining once established. eta- (technical) Energy in the atmosphere is carried in troughs(vorticity) so that drives the flow, and ridges form downstream( to conserve mass and absolute vorticity). Once the block is established, it takes energy(shortwaves) feeding into the trough to sustain it. One way our lovely NAO block will break down is if the upstream pattern shifts- the EPO ridge breaks down/TPV recedes, decreasing vorticity impulses in the flow moving into the trough component of the block.

This 'event' got a mention in the latest AFD from Mount Holly- On Friday, an upper trough with strong shortwave energy approaches from the west. Weak low pressure develops at the base of the trough over the southern Appalachians and dives into the Mid-Atlantic late Friday. Some snow may develop over Delmarva and extreme southeast New Jersey, but QPF looks to be light, so not expecting much in the way of accumulation. Cold air will be locked in place over the region with highs in the 20s and 30s.

Had some small hail. Lots of T&L.

Thunder with constant flashing in the western sky.

That bowing segment looks like its heading this way. Not sure what that means on Dec 31st lol.

It's not that it is just establishing itself, it is the extreme nature of it as currently advertised. It looks like a classic omega block, where our typical NA blocks are more of the rex type. And it is displaced southward, with a busy NS feeding continuous energy into the vortex component- that may very well be overdone, but if not, some of these recent runs represent plausible outcomes.

If this is it Chill is gonna have a visitor.

18z Euro is a tick souther.