CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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GFS/3km NAM combo is suggestive of 2"+ potential in some areas. Most other guidance a coating to an inch or so. My forecast has a max of 1.5". Probably about right.
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Latest blend
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People hitting their brakes just as they approach these snow covered stretches is what causes accidents, or them ending up in a snow bank. Exact wrong thing to do. The asshole tailgaters still doing their thing too.
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9.3" Closer to a foot in Easton where I work. More than half the road I traveled to work this morning had packed snow with ice underneath, and in some cases drifts blocking one lane. Persistent wind/continued cold and the powdery nature of the snow make this an ongoing problem.
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18 this morning and the wind chill is going to be a little nastier today. Been a long time since there has been a solid snowpack with persistent cold and wind in the days that follow. Have not seen the magnitude of blowing and drifting of snow across the roads like this since probably 2014.
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Mount Holly's current thinking is 1-2 for my area with southern DE a bit more. An inch to freshen up the snowpack would be pretty nice.
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Latest Natty blend for reference. See which way it goes after the 12z runs.
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Low of 22 after a high of 31 yesterday
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Read up a few posts. I thought the Euro took a step towards the GFS on its 12z run, and that it might get closer to phasing that energy in just behind the southern shortwave on the 18z run. Instead it comes in overtop, suppresses the developing southern low and kicks it off the SE coast.
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My hunch was wrong. Its worse. That NS vorticity comes right over the top like a wrecking ball.
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It is busy. Amplified pattern with plenty of vorticity in the flow, and intricate interactions determine the ultimate outcome for our period of interest.
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You need to look at more than a snow map to understand why the modeled snowfall looks this way. Plus this is a total snow map.
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Yes 12z. I think that's what I said lol.
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Euro made a step towards the GFS with phasing in that last piece of NS energy earlier on the 12z run, and it was closer to something decent at the surface, but discombobulated. It takes a bigger step this run I believe.
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Driving to work this morning it felt like I was transported to the northern plains somewhere lol.
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I still have the one from last Jan per your request. This one is a similar view just a bit closer. Perhaps I will change it- it has been a year and deeper snow in this pic lol.
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5 times
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Yeah I made a post about this earlier. Looks to me like the 12z Euro made a step towards the GFS though wrt that NS energy.
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A subtle but seemingly critical difference between the Euro and GFS has to do with timing/degree of interaction with NS shortwave energy(of course) digging southward that's associated with the vorticity lobe south of Hudson. GFS phases some of that energy sooner and acts to pick up the southern low, placing it closer to the coast. Euro is lesser/later with the interaction, so that energy acts so suppress/kick the low offshore.
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1/6/25: 9.3" Total: 9.3"
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One more I took yesterday afternoon doing a Jeb walk to the back edge of the property. Just for you @nj2va
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Nice to have frozen ground preceding the storm. No snow eating from below.
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9.3" total That represents the most I measured otg and not what actually fell had I measured properly. I couldn't be bothered yesterday lol. Might have been another inch but whatever. Plenty of snow.
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6z GEFS
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It can get pretty crazy over here with blowing and drifting in a situation like this with so many wide open farm fields. Seeing little snow devils spin up in the open areas is cool though.
