CAPE

The Avocado brings snow plus Barney cold. Hellacious look.

Would be fun

lol moderate to heavy snow with temps dropping into the low teens on this panel

OC chase for an inch+?

I'm in

It is better. Wave timing.

Right where we want it. What number is that in the weenie handbook?

220, 221, whatever it takes.

lol buries our shortwave in the SW and forgets about it.

It de-amplifies a bit more than the 0z run as it comes east. A secondary low pops offshore. The confluence/convergence upstairs on the sw side of that NA vortex is going to have some impact. We want just enough.

You should start a flizzard thread for the 4th.

As always when we have a favorable pattern with cold available, our hopes and dreams hinge on wave interactions, timing, and spacing.

At this point we just root for the foreigners Go Canada! Go Brits! Go Germany!

That's also somewhat the problem for early next week on the GFS in particular. The 12z run has even more NS vorticity phasing in to the 50-50 at the exact wrong time- just ahead of the storm. Its becoming the gyre of doom lol.

The Euro needs to stay the course, and be the correct outcome. We need this.

One difference I noticed between the GFS and the Euro/CMC is the GFS de-amplifies the trough as it moves into an upper level convergence zone(flow velocity decreases)- note the area of discontinuity as the flow within the jet streak rounds the base of the trough and encounters the region just upstream of a strong jet streak associated with the massive vortex over the Canadian Maritimes. That weakens the lift as precip moves into our area. The Euro has a more continuous/favorable jet configuration at that same point with a stronger shortwave at h5 and heavier precip at the surface.

It's kind of a saying up in here. You must be new.

Looks like the same idea previous GFS runs had.

The 0z runs will be telling!!

We can always get a simple trailing wave type deal. As for the extreme cold- when we get a pattern such as is being advertised, there is always a risk we could get an unusual cold air outbreak, and operational runs may depict that from time to time at range, but in reality it occurs infrequently at our latitude in the lowlands. Now if we get decent snow cover with a cold airmass in place in the days that follow, low temps of zero or below can more easily be realized outside of urban areas.

Well yeah but this is a winter with a weaker/retracted STJ, with most of the action in the Polar Jet, and combined with a -WPO/EPO, a -AO/NAO and a TPV lobe squeezed in between, that equals chaos. Yes, it is that complicated.

Such a delicate balance for us to get snow. In this case the NS vorticity digging south overtop on the GFS is such that the divergence from that develops another surface low to the north, which places the best lift further north. That's mostly why we end up with lighter precip. Euro is completely different up top, so I'm not worried too much about it being a tad slower or the cold not staying in place as the moisture comes in- not with that advertised NA look. Just need the Euro stay the course, and be right!!