CAPE

Hell of a second half on his birthday. Re: Todd Monkon. Remember this in the playoffs.

Because they look good.

Brandon Stephens is god awful. Amazing the Ravens don't have a better option.

Euro wobbles a bit north and a bit south from run to run, but not really budging.

The Ravens OL is mediocre against big, physical Defensive fronts. Teams like the Eagles and Browns expose them.

Dude. They are playing a team with nothing to play for. Why give them hope? Just take the damn points. No excuse the second time.

Could be up 20-3 despite that. Harbaugh lol.

Harbaugh ya know, sometimes just take the damn 3. Twice now.

Just numbers. Lets hope Zay is okay.

Ok Ravens, take care of business. No injuries. Get a lead and rest some players.

try some weed

No one can ever resist hugging whatever model pukes the most snow in their yard lol.

His maps never make sense lol Area of 8-12, then the next line out is 8.. I am in between, so 8 to 8. 8 it is!

Pretty much splits the difference between the 0z and 6z ens runs. The mean is just bouncing around a bit like the op. Wouldn't expect to see much difference between them at this range.

At this point I would expect reality to be somewhere in between the GFS and Euro simulations.

gap filler

I think we just discount the Ukie. And the Icon. Like most actual forecasters do lol. Rarely see either mentioned in an AFD.

That's happened pretty often in recent winters.

Its bouncing around a bit, but no trend, yet. 12z is essentially the same as the 0z run.

Me too. Also snow on snow. I will be hiking on Monday if this forecast holds.

The storm track is really dependent on the degree of confluence up north from pieces of vorticity rotating southeastward into the '50-50' vortex. There is no HP up top to speak of. The key difference imo remains the piece of energy(vorticity lobe) in SE Canada, west of Maine. On the GFS it stretches into a vorticity ribbon as it flows into the gyre, so there isn't as much dig southward as other guidance. The Euro, CMC, and Ukie keep that vort lobe more intact/further south, increasing confluence and acting to suppress the storm track a bit more.

Euro will likely tick north a bit more over the next few model cycles, or at least expand the precip shield in that direction.

Snippet from WPC Heavy snow disco this morning- Over the past few days models have converged on a stronger and slightly north solution regarding the initial placement of this upper low, with still some differences regarding it's track and ability to maintain strength as it moves eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Downstream confluence is quite strong and limits to what extent the precipitation shield can lift north. The GFS/GEFS remains alone in a stronger solution which leads to more potent WAA and a farther north heavy snow axis, as well as mixing issues spanning farther north than most other guidance. The answer likely lies somewhere in between, but may be closer to the ECMWF suite given latest trends.

27 nearing sunrise, with a dusting of snow otg.

Why not compare it to the previous run? These maps have been posted every model cycle- the difference between the current and last run is all that matters at this point.