CAPE

Last few runs of the HRRR looking solid for much of the area.

The low flow dripping faucets need to be fixed. I can barely shower anymore.

The timing of the amplification and the orientation of the EPO ridge is key to getting the trough eastward sooner this run. Trough doesnt initially dig as far west. Boundary further east for the 20th potential.

28 My snowpack could use a refresh. Want some snow back on the trees for my hike tomorrow.

This is a pretty straightforward, general 1-2 deal for our region. Some places probably get less than 1 and some a bit more than 2. Southern MD/Lower Eastern shore/S DE best chance of approaching 3. Bob Chill is getting pummeled. 5-6". I'm never hyperbolic.

I like the following wave idea, given the way the pattern looks to evolve. Mentioned this in my post this morning. Based on current guidance the thermal boundary most likely will be to our NW for the threat around the 20th.

12z 3km NAM juiced up a bit

Americano, extra espresso shot with a choco edible. Oh yeah.

or coffee

12z HRRR eta- still snowing in eastern areas

This wasn't forecast to be some brutally cold airmass. Maybe 10 days out some op runs advertised Barney cold. Forecast high temps for here this week were upper 20s/low 30s, with lows in upper teens/low 20s. Exactly what transpired.

Yep western parts of the region got under the influence of HP that briefly shifted eastward, and will retreat today as our little storm moves in.

Again, the lows would have been lower if we could have managed to get HP overhead with calm winds and clear skies. The main culprit is the massive vortex locked in to the NE. Too much wind. Most days this week have had highs in the upper 20s here. Had a 31 Wed I think. No doubt in my mind there would have been some lows in the 8-12 range here with the snow cover and better radiational cooling conditions.

Latest blend

Yeah we could have seen multiple single digit lows this week with the snow cover, but have constantly been in a pressure gradient between the vortex over the Canadian Maritimes and HP centered to our west.

Nice signal on the 0z EPS for a significant shortwave ejecting eastward from the energy in the SW. Tricky part at this point is knowing exactly where the thermal boundary will be. With the pattern shifting a bit to a more amplified EPO ridge as the -NAO breaks down, there looks be some weak ridging along the east coast with milder air for a time as the trough digs into the central US. This might be a case where frozen will be favored mostly to our west initially, with colder air coming eastward behind- then we are in a better position for a following wave with the boundary located further southeastward. Still 10 days out so plenty of possibilities.

1-2 in the forecast here. My bar is a...

Not saying this necessarily means anything, but in the regular season the Ravens blew out the Broncos, the Bills, beat the Chargers convincingly, had a loss at KC to open the season that came down to the last play, lost a game at Steelers that they literally gave away with multiple penalties, 2 turnovers inside their 30 yd line that resulted in Steeler FGs, and Tucker missed 2 very makeable FGs. Beat the Steelers soundly at home in the second matchup, and blew out the Texans. I think that's all the AFC playoff teams.

Yeah it was a pretty slim chance he would go. Justice Hill is back, and Bateman has been making some big time plays lately. Still, without the quickness and game breaking speed of Flowers, the Steeler's D has one less(major)weapon to worry about.

No. Same as your team winning or losing. Booze time either way.

Never understood the concept of having a bar for snow. So what happens if the bar isn't reached? Call a bust? Tantrum? Kick puppies? Or go to an actual bar and get hammered maybe.

Yes and earlier.

NS vorticity with a more "constructive" interaction here compare to previous run. Digs some energy in instead of it all riding overtop. Better outcome.