CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Yeah the strat stuff is a definite wildcard with the guidance going forward, and it looks like the MJO will continue through the bad phases and head towards the COD as it does over the next week or so.
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Outside of a fluke, Dec is dead. There are some positive signs in the LR that indicate we may not have to punt the first couple weeks of Jan. I have been keeping any eye on the Pac wave train, particularly the persistent ridge to the N of Hawaii. Seeing some retrograding of that feature back towards the IDL in recent runs, esp on the EPS, allowing some ridging to develop in the W US.
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0z EPS is also hinting at development of NA blocking, and continues incremental improvement out west in the PNA/EPO domains over the past few runs. The AO looks more impressively negative, and there is a piece of the PV showing up on our side.
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LR guidance is far from perfect, as we all well know. It seems the strength of the MJO and (lack of) progression into the better phases may be the biggest culprit for screwing up the pattern currently. But we also have a lot going on way upstairs with the SPV that may not be picked up by the guidance for another week or so. Hopefully that Pac wave-train will shift phase some to allow more ridging in the western US and up into AK. I am hoping that's where the 0z EPS is heading at the end of its run.
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Just over an inch of rain overnight. Yay rain! eta- I read the display wrong lol. Total so far is 0.85"
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Perhaps a baby step at the end of the 0z EPS run. Some improvement in the NPAC/AK and normal h5 heights in the western US.
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If the EPS has the right idea we may be looking at mid January realistically before the pattern gets decent again. Some help in the NA sure would help offset the badness in the NPAC if it indeed goes to crap. I guess the optimistic take is we muddle through the bad MJO phases, the SPV keeps taking a beating, and we see the ensembles respond with better looks sooner. Otherwise it may be shades down for 3 weeks or so.
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This sub-forum is big. The immediate coast got crushed in early Jan each of the past 2 winters. Both were low end warning events, 5-6" in my yard. There have been advisory events mixed in too during actual winter the last 2 years in many places. It has been pretty lean overall, but nothing unusual.
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Yeah we appear to have that moving in our favor for now. Hopefully the SSW talk is not just all hype, and the SPV continues taking a beating going forward.
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So on the 'model war', it sure looks like the GEFS has moved to the EPS idea of major retrograding of the NPAC features. That big a$$ blocking ridge and downstream EPAC trough doesn't look very Nino-ish. Hopefully that look is transient. Some blocking in the NA sure wouldn't hurt.
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Yeah I went back and looked at all those panels. Like I said, on second glance, the differences are negligible. This run is essentially the same as the last run. Micro-analyzing the weeklies is fruitless. A day or 2 or 3 sooner or later with the advertised pattern progression is noise. The skill of the weeklies more than a week beyond the end of the 0z run it initialized on is pretty low. Factoring in that the EPS has been a wishy-washy mess with the pattern evolution lately, the uncertainty going forward is even higher.
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It did that last run, and kicked the can further down the road this run. Not a fan. Still hoping the strat voodoo happens and saves us. eta- Actually its pretty negligible. Timing of the 'really good' period is about the same as last run. Of course, who knows if it even has the right idea beyond week 3. Based on the EPS waffling recently, not much confidence here.
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Try it. It is the holy grail of IPAs lol. Not for everyone though. Its super big and boozy, but I really like it.
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Snow or bust dude. That's the deal for most here. Personally, I have enjoyed the cold, despite no snow. But that's just me. In other news, I am really enjoying this DFH 120 min IPA. It truly is the holy grail. This son' bitch is BIG.
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One trick pony.
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Chuck is right with the 180 comment lol. Even though the EPS has overall been unsteady run-to-run lately, it has been incrementally moving in this direction. Not sure what to think about it.
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LOL I am looking at it now. Not a Nino look for sure. I thought it might manage to take 2 baby steps forward after some improvement last night. I am just hoping the SSW stuff is real and the models will catch on in another week to 10 days. This ain't looking real pretty for now.
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The SPV will get beaten into submission and the ensembles will respond. Gotta like the look up top on this panel. We could be back to a favorable pattern sooner than we think.
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Chill can try, but he will never keep up with me. Richmond, the wretched snow hole, has a foot of snow so far. My yard- less than an inch.
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Cohen is all jacked up over major SPV discombobulation. He can smell victory!
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Its happening! (again). Until it isn't. In all seriousness, the overnight runs were encouraging, especially seeing the EPS move away from a full dump western trough. Now lets see if it manages to hold/improve on the better look in the next few runs, or if it steps back yet again.
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It is also difficult to deny that the GEFS has moved towards that general idea the last couple runs. Lots going on, with the strat and stuff. It is conceivable things could look different in a few days.
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Christmas! We need a SSW event or something. Chuck? This panel is not all bad, but you can see whats coming immediately after- trough dumping in the west and more ridging in the east.
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WB sucks bad lately.
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Interesting. I was kind of thinking they might start him this week.
