CAPE

If the latest runs of the GFS are correct, not much chance of rain through the end of the month. My current total is 0.48". That will probably end up being the Sept total.

Picked up a couple hundredths. I forgot to cover the rain gauge before I turned the sprinkler on.

Well if you are getting drizzle, that means places nearby are getting a deluge.

50% chance of showers here tonight. lol. We'll see.

86 with a hot, dry desert-like wind blowing. Don't think it can get much drier out there.

Half the leaves will be off the trees before actual color change can occur.

-AO is at the top of the list for increased chances of colder and above average snow for this region.

Agreed. I don't really mind temps in the 80s for a few days here and there. So far its been short lived, then a nice cooldown, then repeat. I would just like some rain and this pattern is not conducive for more than low chance passing showers with most of the energy with cold fronts staying north. It is good to see the propensity for heights to build up top on the guidance. Pretty stout looking -NAO being advertised. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come.

Maybe, but the initial piece of NS energy dropping down, then a following piece, are going to flatten the current ridge after tomorrow. Should be pretty pleasant for the midweek period. As we approach Friday another eastern ridge will begin to pop as the NS motherload drops down out west and forms a deep trough. Next weekend might be warmer than this weekend. That ridge could stick around for 6-7 days, although with a strong NA ridge and NS energy moving underneath it, there is a chance it could flatten/break down the east coast ridge sooner. Looking at the overall long wave pattern, and rolling that forward, it likely favors more eastern ridging beyond that though. Torchtober! Hopefully the pattern retrogrades enough to place the mean ridge to our west after the first few days of October.

My point/click. I mean, this isn't hideous. It could be worse if not for the h5 heights building over Greenland and the deep vortex sitting underneath. Impressive NA block on the means. Without it, there would likely be a full 7 days of temps near/above 90. Too bad there is little chance of rain. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Monday Night A chance of showers, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 79. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 80. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Friday Sunny, with a high near 81. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

45 here currently. House feels a bit cold this morning.

Looks like we heat up well into the 80s Sat through Mon, then a cold front moves through. Despite the heat, dews should be in the upper 50s to around 60. That front offers probably our "best" shot at some rain over the next week. After that temps drop back to 80 or so for highs and upper 50s at night, before we heat up again by next Friday. Beyond that we may torch for a few days, but with ridging building in the NA around Greenland, there is an an upper low showing up south of that (50/50ish) on the means, so it may deliver a back door front as we see more of a NE trough develop and the upper ridging retro a bit more westward late next weekend into the following week, before weakening. Not at all sold on the idea of a persistent heat ridge/ torch for the rest of the month into early October. I put this here because no one really seems to read the Mid/LR thread lol.

I never go in expecting the winters of a few years ago. We fail way more than we score. That's just reality. Plus even if we do get good set ups with cold air in place, we still need luck. Last December was a good example. I am prepared to chase.

Now is the time to be optimistic. I have been focusing more on what appear to be 'good signals' at this juncture. All our hopes and dreams will surely be crushed, probably incrementally, in due time.

Probably the worst time to plant grass. It can barely get established and then the longer days and brutal sun come along and burn it up.

Normally I wouldn't care so much, although the trees are dropping lots of leaves here already so not sure the color is going to be that great. I am trying to get a new lawn established out back, and its a real battle to keep the soil moist with no rain. Been watering for multiple hours a day for 3 weeks now.

I guess it depends on what your definition of roasting is lol. Sat-Mon look quite warm- mid to upper 80s. Looks to drop back to more normal temps for mid next week, then we will see what happens the following weekend. It will likely get quite warm again with a trough digging out west, but it looks progressive. Personally I don't mind (I actually expect) days in the low 80s in this area in mid to late September, as long as we don't have ridiculous humidity levels like last fall, and there are no signs of that. My concern is there is literally no chance of significant rain for yet another week, and its already abnormally dry here.

See this a lot around the bay near the wildlife refuges.

48 when I left for work this morning. Nice out there.

Looking a little like fall, and definitely feeling like it. Mostly its the dryness giving the early fall look.

This is one of the good signs IMO. If the current SSTAs in the ENSO region hold for the most part, we should have the convection in a location that would allow for more ridging around AK and the western US. If we cant get the Atlantic to help(winter -NAO extinct), we need the Pacific to not be hostile.

Bob will be back. Like most people, other than us losers, he has better things to do when the weather is nice.

Yeah I finished my firepit back in June, and tried it out twice during the summer. Hopefully we have a nice, normal period of fall weather(with some rain!) in October through November. Then the -AO/NAO/EPO ridge the CanSIPS is advertising can lock in with a cold, snowy December.

Forecast low of 51 here tonight and 49 tomorrow night.