CAPE

Can't look at any one element in isolation, but the QBO trending from positive towards neutral(maybe even negative) heading into winter is better than it being super negative and trending less negative into fall and winter. That combined with a near solar minimum lends some support for a weaker winter PV/ -AO, which is also more conducive for development of a -NAO.

Mine is running now. I reseeded over a week ago lol. So far, so good. Other than stressing my well pump for a few hours a day. Some significant rain would be nice. eta- ofc now I am waiting for the moles to start effing it all up.

Would be nice if our rain prospects were better during the transition. Doesn't look impressive overall, but hopefully a few can cash in.

He messaged me. I assume he has been reading some of the threads. Hope he starts posting again.

Yeah not sure how it goes from that Dec look to what it has for Jan. Complete flip up top. Ofc its the CFS- give it a few days and it will offer up something else.

Latest runs of the CFS now look remarkably similar to the last run of the CanSIPS.. HL blocking galore for Jan and Feb. Still waiting for the new edition of the CanSIPS. Probably will look much different lol.

The QBO is heading in the right direction. 30 mb index dropped from 14.36 in June to 10.96 in July to now 9.97 for August. Hopefully it keeps moving towards neutral as we get deeper into fall. eta- thanks to @mitchnick for pointing out a flaw in the data I originally posted. Fixed now.

Picked up 0.14" in a quick downpour. Mostly the usual though- lots of thunder, a healthy looking cell completely decaying on approach, and near hits.

Didn't mean to crap up the Obs thread with lawn talk. Maybe a mod could move the recent posts to banter or the lawn/garden thread.

The original(what I use) is probably the most drought tolerant, and best for seeding a new lawn. https://www.jonathangreen.com/categories/grass-seed-products.html All their products and where to buy.

@frd Since you are overseeding, maybe try the Black Beauty Ultra- supposed to be great for overseeding. All the Black Beauty products are pricey, but there is nothing greener, and it does well in both sun and shade.

Me too. Love moss. One side of the yard is mostly moss, and the front and entire north side of the house is a carpet. Its only the back yard I try to keep a decent lawn, but one side gets a ton of sun and the other side barely any. I am back to Jonathan Green Black Beauty. The original stuff I put down years ago eventually burned up in the sun, but the new version is supposed to be more drought tolerant. It really does do well in the shade(as advertised). Every other fescue I have tried since has been a complete fail after one summer.

I have to get going early due to being in the middle of the woods. I will end up overseeding a bit in areas I missed, but I need the new grass to be well established before the leaves start coming down. Ofc its mostly a futile endeavor here with the moles, competition from the trees, and the well drained soil. It's a rinse and repeat this time every year until I get sick of it again and just let nature take its course lol. Clover!

Yeah its very dry. I went ahead and did my re-seeding last weekend after we got that nice rain, not a drop since. Grass is coming up but I am stuck watering for a couple hours each day now. Need effing rain.

Decent morning for the first day of fall. 64. Very comfortable.

I assume he is mostly referring to the ENSO. Even though it is officially neutral, and expected to remain so for fall and winter, there may be some residual atmospheric Nino-like effects. I am keeping an eye on the QBO. Be interesting to see where August ends up. Looks like a steady move towards neutral currently. Even if it doesn't go negative, a positive QBO becoming less positive as we head into the winter months correlates to at least somewhat colder in the east. That plus near solar minimum certainly would be a net positive. Ofc we also have Cohen's hocus pocus to look forward to as another possible clue about the winter AO state.

And if you must have snow, be prepared to chase. Luckily, places that average 90-120" are a 3-5 hour drive, depending on your location. And then there is the occasional odd beach blizzard chase.

Agreed. Way too early to get into the subtleties. That general look at this juncture is a good one. Lets see what its got in another 10 days.

I am slightly optimistic on a winter -NAO because it has been persistent throughout the summer, the QBO as we head into fall looks somewhat favorable, and we are at/near solar min. Also I believe we have had exactly 1(maybe 2) out of the last 24 winter months with an official -NAO. So we have Showme's WDI going for us.

It was posted here I believe. Pretty nice looking PAC, and EPO ridge, but meh NA.

Details! At this point it's at least nice to see the suggestion of a decent NA. CFS has been back and forth, and the Euro seasonal looks legit +NAO. We shall see. As I said, my only tracking interest over the next 1-2 months are ENSO and PDO. The rest we wont know much about until later in fall.

@showmethesnow Just saw this- its from Monday. Looks like he revised his initial tweet about the CanSIPS "fix". I thought the hindcast thing was mentioned in our discussion here, or maybe I saw it somewhere else. I didn't see this map posted anywhere in this thread, but maybe I missed it. Anyway it's interesting, and still a decent look.

That is a nice write up and cool vids on the SSW. I am with you on the CanSIPS. Just going to wait and see what the Sept edition looks like in about 10 days. I also expect it will look quite different.

Would be nice to analyze/pinpoint the cause(s) of that. Been pretty persistent. Part of the reason may have to do with a topic most don't want discussed in these threads.

I guess one argument for what the CanSIPS is advertising is it would be a continuation of the HL blocking pattern that has been established for several months now. Not sure that works statistically, but one would think the WDI would apply to a -NAO for the winter months.