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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It's so pitiful it cant be found.
  2. CAPE
    Finally got around to actually building a firepit to go with the surround I did back in the Spring. I built a couple planter boxes to put trees in, and I will make a bench once I figure out exactly what I want.
  3. CAPE
    Plenty of sun here this morning. Still feels pretty decent out there, although the dewpoint is creeping up. currently 79/64.
  4. CAPE
    Some excerpts from this morning's AFD from Mount Holly on the potential for late today into the evening- A third perturbation arrives late today, and this is the one that should produce stronger convection. There are two main forecast questions associated with this perturbation. Where will it track, and how will the downstream environment destabilize? Regarding the first question, the 00z NAM tracks it along the Mason-Dixon Line. The 00z GFS tracks it across northern Virginia eastward to Delmarva. The 00z ECMWF is much farther north (generally through PA/NJ). These differences are critical because convection will likely develop in close proximity to this vort max. Hi-res models are similarly variable, with HRRR runs developing strong convection anywhere from eastern PA/central NJ to central/southern MD eastward through Delmarva. Where the environment remains relatively unperturbed by the predecessor precipitation/clouds, BUFKIT soundings show MLCAPE approaching 1000- 1500 J/kg this afternoon in an adequately sheared (30-35 kts deep- layer bulk wind difference) environment. Low-level helicity will also improve through the day, with hodographs exhibiting modest curvature (0-3 km SRH approaching 150 J/kg by evening). Where convection develops, mixed convective modes may occur initially with all types of severe possible, though convection-allowing guidance is tending to develop a mesoscale convective system rather quickly. Timing of the stronger storms looks to be after 3 pm and may peak during the evening hours based on the latest HRRR/NAM Nest simulations.
  5. CAPE
    Mount Holly's take this morning on the active upcoming period and severe potential for Sunday and esp Monday for most of our region. The aforementioned cold front will be approaching the lower Great Lakes east-northeast to northern/central New England on Sunday, with several weak perturbations moving west-to-east near the boundary. Convection should readily develop along/downstream of the front by afternoon, mainly to our north/west but probably also in our CWA as well. The 00z GFS is depicting a stronger vort max approaching the northern Mid-Atlantic during the evening, with a round of strong/widespread convection in our area by this time. The 00z ECMWF is fairly similar, which provided enough confidence to raise PoPs to high-chance and even likely in northern portions of the CWA Sunday afternoon/night. Precipitation will wane late Sunday night as nocturnal stabilization takes over and the strongest large-scale lift moves to our east. The CAPE/shear parameter space would be sufficient for severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening, and I am rather concerned the GFS is underdoing instability in the pre-frontal warm sector given increasingly warm/moist conditions. Moreover, BUFKIT soundings/hodographs suggest a substantial amount of low-level shear/helicity may exist. Will need to watch Sunday afternoon/night closely for the severe-weather threat in the coming days. After perhaps a brief reprieve late Sunday night into Monday morning, chances of strong convection return Monday afternoon. Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF depict another strong perturbation moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/evening. Once again, the CAPE/shear parameter space is favorable for severe storms, though shear may be somewhat weaker than the previous day. However, the pre-frontal warm sector may be more unstable (using model sounding comparisons Sunday versus Monday). Complications from antecedent convection will exist (increasing the uncertainty in the forecast by this point), not to mention the model volatility already in place with the perturbations responsible for the larger-scale lift associated with the convection. Nevertheless, I am becoming quite concerned with the severe threat both of these days, and hydro issues will be an increasing concern as well given the multiple rounds of storms that may affect the area.
  6. CAPE
    Yeah some of the meso runs had this, but I was skeptical. I am over 7" for May now.
  7. CAPE
    Round 2 has arrived. Nothing severe, but looks like there could be some persistent(training?) cells. Torrential rain currently.
  8. CAPE
    Here is another shot of the same storm a few miles southwest as I was driving.
  9. CAPE
    Damn. At least it wasn't a flood.
  10. CAPE
    Total rainfall for the storm here was 0.85". It was going sideways though, so probably more than that fell.
  11. CAPE
    Shot of the storm approaching here from the end of my driveway. The rush of wind was impressive on the front end, and the power went out pretty quick. Just came back on after about an hour. Lots of tree debris and branches down but no major damage. Nice storm.
  12. CAPE
    Yeah lots of booming thunder here. Picked up 0.65" of rain.
  13. CAPE
    Is there a category below garden variety? If so, that's what I had in my yard. Some brief, heavy rain, some T&L(mostly from the better storms to my south), and virtually no wind. Picked up 0.35" of rain though. Has gotten a tad dry here lately.
  14. CAPE
    Interesting read from Mount Holly on the severe potential, and limiting factors: Although showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, will continue to be possible in the warm sector through the morning, the main round of storms we are concerned about are storms that are expected to develop along and ahead of the pre-frontal trough late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Some of these storms could be severe. Most models depict ML CAPE values near or above 1000 J/kg in the 21 to 00Z time frame along with 0-6km bulk shear values of 40 to 50 kt. Not only is this a significant amount of shear, but model soundings depict plenty of veering with height (especially within the first 3 km). This further enhances the risk that updrafts could be persistent. There are a few potential caveats. First, low/mid level clouds may not erode through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating (in anticipation that this may be the case, have gone with the cooler guidance for highs on Thursday), which would limit instability/CAPE values. Secondly, related to the first caveat, the NAM depicts a low level inversion (around 900 mb) which never fully erodes through the day (unlike the GFS which depicts this eroding between 21 and 00Z). Even if we are cooler and the inversion stays in place, I think we will continue to have at least some severe threat as lift along the trough could be enough to lift elevated parcels above the inversion. The final caveat is that remarkably, model soundings are depicting several dry (and one very dry) layers through the afternoon and evening. This means the LCL will be higher than normal, and will have an impact on the risk for wind, tornado, and heavy rain. Speaking of hazards: Damaging wind: This looks to be the primary hazard thanks to a low and mid level jet, and plenty of shear. The low level inversion mentioned above may limit how efficient the mixing is down to the surface, but the dry levels will help to increase the risk of downbursts thanks to an increased risk of dry air entrainment. Hail: Severe hail (1" in diameter or greater) is certainly possible, especially if we warm up as much as what the GFS is depicting and are able to realize the higher CAPE values. The highest threat for hail looks to be over Delmarva and far SE PA where the highest CAPE values are possible. Tornado: The veering wind profiles increase the risk for rotating updrafts. However, as mentioned above the LCL will be higher than normal which could limit the threat for tornadoes.
  15. CAPE
    Mesos depicting some decent FGEN associated with a boundary at 850 mb. Looks like that is where the axis of heaviest rain will set up later tonight. Probably along I-95, and more towards NE MD and SE PA, and into SNJ.
  16. CAPE
    Some thunder and drizzle here. Nice storm to my south.
  17. CAPE
    Best part of this event is occuring now. Moderate rain with that low rolling, long duration, house shaking thunder. So cool. Wish I understood the mechanism better. Also wish my subwoofers could rock the house like that lol.
  18. CAPE
    Was pretty garden variety here. Heavy rain, some wind, and some T&L. Over an inch of rain today with what fell this morning.
  19. CAPE
    Line rapidly approaching here. Wind really picking up and lots of thunder.
  20. CAPE
    Get out there and get some pics or a vid! looks like it could be really close to your location.
  21. CAPE
    Lots of thunder here. I am west of Easton and its staying mostly just to the east of here.
  22. CAPE
    I am in Easton but saw that cell on radar. Looked like it went right over my yard. Stuff is popping already. The hodos on some of the meso models show some decent veering and curvature. Later today should be interesting.
  23. CAPE
    Interesting. I have not paid much attention to this admittedly, with a lot of other stuff going on. Just read the AM AFD from Mount Holly... A surface low in the Midwest will continue northeastward today in advance of a southern-stream vort max that is beginning to phase with a digging northern-stream shortwave trough. Amplification and negative tilting will continue through the morning as the large- scale trough approaches the Appalachians by midday. The Mid-Atlantic will be at the nose of a potent midlevel jet streak/vort max this afternoon, with strongly difluent flow in the upper levels favorable for substantial large-scale ascent along and in advance of a surging cold front. A warm front will lift north through the northern Mid- Atlantic today, with the warm sector likely making it through about the southern two-thirds of the CWA or so by early afternoon. Latest convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive of an environment favorable for organized severe storms this afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate backing surface flow as the large-scale system and associated surface low to our northwest deepens within the warm sector this afternoon. Hodographs are strongly indicative of potential for rotating storms. Low-level storm-relative helicity of 200-300 J/kg is not out of the question in advance of the cold front late this afternoon and this evening. In addition, several of the hi-res models develop decent mixed-layer based instability (with mitigating effects near the colder waters, as usual). The resulting CAPE/shear parameter space is adequate for tornadic supercells, though the strong large-scale ascent may favor more of a quasi- linear convective system (QLCS) with embedded transient/rotating storms.
  24. CAPE
    "Near" is relative. In the context of a very localized event, that was not near me. And I live NW of Greensboro, so its more like 25 miles. Also the tornado was 2.5 miles south of Federalsburg, so now we are pushing 30. But thanks Yoda!
  25. CAPE
    That's pretty far south of me. I am in the northern part of Caroline county, which is pretty expansive north to south. This was the same event that produced the stronger tornadoes in southern DE I believe, and could have been associated with the same localized cell(s)- which would make sense as that location is pretty close (just NW) of the Seaford/Laurel area.
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