CAPE
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Heading north?
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EPS in the MR has the big blocking ridge over Chukchi(displaced WPO), then it weakens in the LR, and shifts the PNA ridge a bit eastward. EPO looks to trend neutral/positive. AO looks slightly negative, with a neutral NAO(maybe trending more negative at the end). PV looks to remain fairly perturbed as we continue to see TPV lobes rotating down. I am down with that look heading towards the end of the month. Should be generally chilly for the EC if it verifies.
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23 here.
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I always thought you were an older dude for some reason. I guess mattie did too.
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Corona is a terrible beer, which is bad enough, but their completely annoying, awful commercial- blah blah blah, a corona gets its lime.. just makes me want to punch someone- mostly anyone who thinks it is an actual beer worth consuming. Much rather drink a Miller lite. @stormtracker
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My sis and her husband are headed to Deep Creek for the weekend for her birthday. She is looking forward to the cold and some snow.
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She gone lads.
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Some flakes were flying here when I left for work at 6:15. 36 F
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It's not going to survive the moles
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Well at least we know to keep our expectations low now since the experts have spoken. SE ridge shall dominate..we torcher.
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It would likely be rain, with the midweek cold going stale/moving out. I am down for a soaking rain though. It's starting to get a bit dry here again.
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I'll give the Euro another run or 2 to really raise expectations with a region wide warning event before crushing everyone's dreams.
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0z Euro got it done. A 2-4" deal for the region. EPS snowfall mean improved nicely.
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It is an odd looking evolution, and one I highly doubt ends up being ground truth reality. Seems to have an initial wave along the front, then develops low pressure somewhere along the coast, so snow NW of the metros then rain changing to snow SE, but mostly rain in between.
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It has generally been about the same for several runs, but there have been better. It is splitting hairs though for a mean. The 0z run had an inch+ for DC to Dover through 0z Thursday, compared to 0.7" for the 12z run.
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lol it sucks. But to be expected given its early Nov. Keep expectations in check.
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We a long way from knowing how this plays out. One wave, or 2? Wound up cutter? I just can't get excited about it because, well, climo. If I lived in Canaan, yeah I would be totally into it. If I see a few flakes in the air here before Nov 15th, it's a win.
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Doesn't suck for me.
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CMC looks very similar
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Rain/Snow in my forecast for Monday night. I will enjoy that while it lasts.
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This h5 look is something I would rather see as we are approaching mid Dec, but it's on the table so what the hell, maybe some part of our region can score something given the highly anomalous nature of the advertised pattern.
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29 here this morning
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It needs to get steppin' to catch up to pretty much all other guidance, including the ICON. Or maybe it will score a coup with the suppressed event.
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@showmethesnow Nice write up. This period has been popping out as one with some potential. The usual caveats- its early, climo, etc. It would take a pretty anomalous airmass/set up for it to snow on the coast the second week of November, but it can happen, and the h5 looks we are seeing from the guidance lately is pretty anomalous looking lol.
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I don't think this is going to work out well for the FV3.
