CAPE

Its happening!! because the mighty CanSIPS has been leading the way on this look beginning late fall for months, and now that the LR global ens are in range, they are all over it. Latest runs of the CFS, otoh, says huh? what blocking?

I use the spring loaded spikers. No digging, just flatten the ridge, push it in, and load it. It has been so dry though that the moles stay further down, and then would come topside and scratch around and dig down all over the place. More difficult to get with the traps when they behave that way, and not good for new grass trying to establish roots.

After 8 weeks of daily watering I have finally retired the sprinkler for the year. That got to be a tedious daily chore. Now the moles can really go to town.

CMC has it and it gets rain through most of the region. It seems to stall under the big developing ridge. Not super heavy but long duration. Then it gets kicked out with the next low moving into the GL, and more rain with the associated front from that. It likely wont play out that way, but certainly looks like a potentially active period early next week.

Plenty of potential during that period for an early season "winter like" event. Not saying frozen for the lowlands, but with the type of pattern being advertised, a snow event for the mountains of W MD and WV is a possibility.

Interesting h5 look at hour 222 on the 12z GFS.

@nw baltimore wx I use the BB Original, and it does well in sun and shade, as long as the shaded areas get at least a few hours of filtered sun. If it is a legit shady area, then the dense shade variety is the one to use.

Jonathan Greene- The Black Beauty product line has a tall fescue mixture for shade. https://www.jonathangreen.com/categories/grass-seed-products.html

Ok enough of this rain. Can we get a few sunny, dry days already?

Good post. 100% agree.

HREF looks solid for today. Highest amounts are 1- 1.25" south to north along and either side of the bay, with somewhat lesser amounts as you head west and right along the MA coast. Looks like a half to an inch in general for the entire region.

Ofc it completely evaporated on the 6z run lol. Still, with the advertised h5 looks across all guidance, it is certainly possible the highlands could see some legit snow around the end of the month.

Your area may be flirting with a little snow by the end of the month if the means are close to correct. With h5 looks like that, there might be a chance or 2.

Absolute pig of a block on the 6z GFS for late month.Would likely be some snow showers in the mountains with that look but any coastal development would probably be well offshore.

Pretty darn nice. 12z Euro ens looks even more impressive than the 0z panel I posted above, and very similar to the GEFS. Hate to keep repeating it, but pretty uncanny how similar the current LR ens runs look to the CanSIPS h5 pattern for Nov, which it has been consistently depicting since August, and continues it through March. Lets hope this is an early indication of how the pattern will roll going forward.

I am looking for positive signs in these climate/seasonals, and right now the CanSIPS is about the only one offering a very favorable h5 pattern for the MA region. For 3 straight runs it has developed the HL blocking during the October into November period, and it only gets better moving forward. So I will take it as a positive sign at this juncture that the global means are now advertising the very look it has been consistently depicting, and in the same time frame. Ofc it very well could mean nothing lol. Pretty close match between the 0z EPS at the end of its run and what the CanSIPS has been advertising for that general period..

The latest runs of the GEFS, EPS. and even the GEPS have a HL blocky look developing as we approach the month of November, very similar to what the CanSIPS has been advertising for that period(and persisting through winter) going back to it's August run. Interesting. Maybe it is on to something. Given what the other climate/seasonal models are depicting currently, I like seeing the major global ensemble means all trending towards the CIPS idea heading into late fall.

Maybe I will be able to return the desert shtick to @EastCoast NPZ

Fwiw, recent runs of the CFS have a solid +AO/+NAO look through at least January. No hints of HL blocking on our side of the globe. Luckily the Pacific looks decent, and ofc in another day or 2 the model may offer up something different lol. CanSIPS has been steadfast with the HL blocky look. In another couple weeks we can see if that holds as we move closer to the start of winter.

Forecast here is for 0.75 to 1" for Wed. I would be totally happy with that outcome.

Mount Holly's thoughts on the model discrepancies- The biggest uncertainty (as usual) is with QPF, with the GFS much drier than the ECMWF/NAM (roughly middle of the road), and the CMC much wetter. This is clearly tied to how close the newly developing low tracks to the coast, with the CMC nearest the CWA and the GFS/NAM much farther offshore. The ECMWF is well between the two extremes and agrees with ensemble means as well. Given these factors, used a blend of model QPF for the Wednesday/Wednesday night forecast as well, but with slightly more weight to the ECMWF and NAM. The result is widespread 1-2 inch totals (highest amounts north and east). Notably, the GFS features totals about 50-75 percent of these values, with the CMC in the range of 2-4+ inches. (In other words, large uncertainty remains.)

Yeah it looks to be a quick hitter for our region. Lets hope it packs a punch.

12z Euro looks similar. 1.3" for BWI and about 0.9" for DC.

After the surprising 0.4" that fell here yesterday, an inch would be great to really get some moisture back in the soil. Depending on the exact track of the southern low and timing of the phase, we could see higher amounts. Hopefully the area can maximize qpf with this event, because looking at the means, looks like we go back to a big EC ridge with warm/dry for the weekend and much of next week.

Dense fog the whole way into work this morning here after the rain overnight. Have not seen fog like that in a long time.