CAPE
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Did you seriously expect this to produce? In THIS area? In late October? Should be a decent squall line a bit later with some very localized wind damage..that's about it.
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Latest CFS runs concur. November may be kinda fun.
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Impressive -WPO and +PNA with a -AO and some nice ridging in the NAO domain as well on the EPS. I am totally down with an h5 pattern like this becoming a mainstay for winter.
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So as October comes to a close, what is the verdict on the SAI? Have we met the criteria for rate of change of snow cover for Eurasia south of 60N? What shall we expect as a result for the winter AO state? PV weakling or big blue ball locking up all the polar air well north? Will Cohen take credit regardless? All questions inquiring minds need answered.
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I am going to try like heck to stay up for the Baseball game, but no, not losing sleep for severe "potential" in late Oct in the MA.
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Severe in this area usually underwhelms even at peak times for it. Severe in late October... Yeah, enjoy the heavy rain with some wind gusts. I am looking forward to an awesome fall weather weekend with widespread frost on Sunday night.
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Well lets throw a CP Nino in there too so we have the holy grail for the MA.
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0z EPS has the same general look at the end of its run (hr 360).. +AO/NAO, EPO/WPO +heights.
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Looks like the heaviest snow was on the east side of Denver. Saw a report of 10" this morning for your area, and 6.6" at the airport.
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Nats got this. Home team can't win in this series.
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We knew that winter was a fluke as it was happening. Ton of luck, and the -EPO/WPO drove it and brought the cold. Likely the only way to overcome a sustained +AO during winter around here.
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Everything except heat. We almost always over perform on that one.
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Looks like the Denver area will end up with 10" of cold powder with this next storm. Heavy snow with temps in the single digits and teens. Snow on snow too in October. Something that is rare here in mid winter. @smokeybandit Keep us posted.
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Things always look good this time of year. The glass is half full. The swings come from those who hang onto every post/discussion on the key indices and the advertised LR pattern. That is all objective stuff and some speculation mixed in. There are always those who will exhibit early signs of panic because they get overemotional or lack understanding. Panic room open for business yet? I hope all turns out well with your back surgery.
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Both the EPS and GEFS have the AO and the NAO turning negative for early November. Again lets see how this plays out, and whether it means anything further down the line wrt persistence.
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I took a quick glance at h5 on the EPS this morning and saw the negative height anomalies down south towards the end of the run and was like hmm...that looks interesting, and how nice to see the antithesis of a SE ridge. Hopefully we see more of that look going forward.
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If the winter months feature a legit +AO, there better be a well placed ERO ridge on steroids to get any significant cold air delivery down here. We have seen that work recently, although we got lucky with the results at least one of those years. Even so, the mean pattern that sets up in that scenario mostly supports nickel and dime snow events with big ticket warm cutters.
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Except in this case all 3 major globals had the same h5 look for the same time frame, and it matched the CanSIPS fall progression before it suddenly got reprogrammed.
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We all know better, but it's just so hard to not fall for those 10-14 day advertised patterns of pure epicness.
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I don't think you endorse him lol. I am sure there are many people who think his work is useful, but I find his shtick to be a complete bore. I never go out of my way to read his stuff, but when I see something here or elsewhere from him, it's mostly the same old broken record.
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Cohen is a sensationalist and seems to always be rooting for the extreme. He is like a one-trick pony version of Bastardi. We don't need SSWE and PV splits, we just need the damn thing in a weakened state so all the cold doesn't stay bottled up in the high latitudes.
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Looks like another 4" plus event for Denver tomorrow, and maybe record breaking low temps in its wake.
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Yeah its not the big deal it used to be. The local stores around here have constantly had it on the shelves for the last year.
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In general, more persistent/frequent cold air excursions into the mid latitudes, and increased prospects for snow in the MA.
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6 bucks a beer for a high gravity bourbon barrel aged stout is a bargain!
