CAPE

I am no MJO expert, but never have I ever heard anyone say the pattern is crap because of the MJO, or it cant be cold/snowy because an MJO pulse in in the warm phases. It used to be something we only ever heard about when the pattern sucked and we needed a reason. Oh. Like now.

I cant remember a case where the MJO was solely responsible for shutting down winter lol. I mean, yes it has influence but it is only one pattern driver. I guess i'm missing something. Hello El Nino... where are you?? I think that's half the problem- this Nino is really a Nada at this point. CPC/NCEP still has ENSO neutral with an El Nino 'watch' in effect.

I said after his 5th post he should be 5-posted.

I wouldn't. He did though. I guess it didn't fit the narrative.

Not me. One year ago today was the eve of BOMB CYCLONE I. I was positioned in Rehoboth Beach and about to experience the best blizzard since Feb 2010. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/nasa-pictures-of-the-bomb-cyclone-and-freezing-temperatures-from-space.html

I assumed he was referring the the EPS and GEFS, but excluding the 6z GEFS run.

Same here. I am 'hopeful' we can still salvage the last 10 days of Jan. Get a workable pattern by mid month or so, and maybe score a moderate event before Feb. That would alleviate a lot of anxiety around here.

It wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern.

Not by much, maybe a couple days. And arguably the EPS is a little 'ahead' with the HL look. Either way it was expected. I had already mentally kicked the can down the road a bit. I had been thinking the 15th was doable for a serviceable pattern- it still might be- but based on recent runs of the ensembles the 20th is probably more realistic.

Now is not the time to look at op runs and expect a discrete threat to consistently show up. We are probably still in shutout mode for the next 10-14 days. I am sticking with the 20th for a workable pattern.

Incremental improvement on the 0z EPS over AK/EPO domain, and overall up top.. less blue. I think over the next few runs we see the EPO ridge continue to develop and and the AO should trend negative. NA blocking probably wont get going until the last week of Jan.

I cant predict the weather, but I predict there will be marked improvement in the advertised pattern towards D15 over the next couple runs of the EPS, particularly in the N/EPAC.

That's really kinda sad.

Visions of cold and a skiff of snow on the 15th came to me in a dream, and was followed by many blizzards. Please don't like this post, Chuck.

I am working very hard to suppress my inner Deb. I believe the best global model in the world is on schedule to begin revealing the pattern of all our hopes and dreams, at 0z, and will continue the trend at 12z tomorrow. Anddddd.. the new version of the weeklies tomorrow will not kick the can down the road (anymore than a day or 2).

Lol despite the sexier HL look, the (advertised) ground truth on the last few GFS/GEFS runs for our region is pretty toasty- not much different than the EPS with it's shiitty look up top.

I guess but the HL looked crappy on the weeklies for the same time frame, and the pattern still evolved to very workable by the 22nd. I'm just hoping the EPS are still on the same "schedule", and if so, we are looking at the 20th or just beyond. I have long since accepted that the first 2 weeks or so of Jan are toast.

The h5 look on the EPS should become noticeably more favorable over the next couple runs. Today's 12z run ends on Jan 17th. The advertised h5 look from today's run aligns quite well with the 17th from the most recent edition of the weeklies. I know for some the the progression seems painfully slowwww or non-existent, but it is in pretty good alignment with the look and the timing from the weeklies of a few days ago- the EPO ridge started to really take shape around the 18-19th, and the overall pattern became progressively more favorable from there.

I also doubt there is much truth to it.

Actually 0z looked a tad better at the end. Appears no 'good' trend is underway though. EPS is on one hell of an extended run of bad chili.

Bob's inner Deb may be going away for awhile.

I think this is how to interpret it. I also think even on the means the AN heights will disappear on future runs if the look up top is legit, and NA blocking persists.

Its probably a combo of the EPAC ridge axis being a bit too far west, PAC jet undercutting, and NA ridging is a tad weak/too far north. Correctable with minor tweaks.

That look is nothing new. EPS is incrementally progressing towards a more serviceable pattern, but it wont be until beyond the 20th if recent runs are correct. I suspect odds are the GEFS will cave somewhat to the EPS, rather than the EPS speeding up the progression to a better pattern. But yeah, its going to be a while yet.

EPS is getting there, just painfully slow. There is progression with the ridge building towards AK and splitting the area of lower heights in the EPAC. Up top and in the NA, there is incremental improvement, but again- slowww. Can see hints towards D15 of the NAO trending towards neutral. Just a gut feeling, but I think the EPS will accelerate the pattern change over the next few runs with the MJO moving into better phases and as it nails down the post SWE TPV position(s).