CAPE

Remains to be seen but it looks a lot like 2009-10 to me.

It fits. And not like its out of nowhere. The weeklies have been very good/great for many runs now. Last 2 are in the epic category.

Please, tell us what is. Eh, Never mind.

I dunno. I think I'm gonna pour another IPA and lovingly stare at that second one.

Epic run. We are getting a couple KUs if that is even close to right.

WB panels flow like molasses at 12 degrees.

Good thing -NAO is always over-modeled. Should end up just about perfect for the MA.

I love the run verbatim. Not so sure the final outcome will bear much resemblance.

God help us if we miss another southern slider by being too north widespread panic.

Soon to be MA lol. This winter will end up being 2009-10, SE. We will be New England.

Yeah getting that sweet look up top. Looks like heights are really set to build in the NA beyond d15. An actual legit -NAO maybe.

Metfan in the storm threat thread offering up deep thoughts.

As usual at this lead time, its an evolving situation. I saw a bunch of potential in that Euro run. The storm might ultimately be on the weak side, or south, but I would be pretty surprised if it plays out as depicted.

Interesting take from Mount Holly on the potential, and the current differences in the models. This sets the stage for a rather complex scenario for the weekend. Upstream, highly amplified ridging will occur in the western U.S., with models generally depicting a northern-stream system lifting well north into Canada late in the week while a southern-stream component struggles to move through the ridge in the Southwest. Meanwhile, a downstream northern perturbation will be digging into the eastern North America trough. However, models are at odds as to how strong this perturbation is and where this digging will occur. The GFS occasionally hints at this process occurring in the Great Lakes region Friday night and Saturday, which would be sufficiently far west to allow for phasing with the advancing southern-stream perturbation before it moves offshore. The ECMWF is considerably farther east (generally east of the Great Lakes), so the phasing with the southern-stream system generally occurs after moving offshore. The ECMWF has been reasonably consistent the past few cycles, whereas the GFS has been quite variable. However, given the complexities of the setup, the volatility of the GFS is statistically meaningful. The ensemble means more closely match the ECMWF than the GFS, but the deterministic GFS is also a more extreme solution (which would ultimately make it more likely to deviate from the ensemble mean). This makes me question if the ECMWF is a substantially more likely solution than the GFS. Given the phasing the ECMWF eventually develops, my suspicion is the damped ensemble solutions are more a result of model variability than higher probability.

I think we were both referring to timing for a pattern flip. I suppose you get "credit" for sniffing out the storm potential. eta- Its nice things appear to have moved forward in time. Back when we were stuck in PAC puke with only minor hints of change on the guidance, a flip to a workable pattern between the 15-20th was probably optimistic. Now we have have a decent storm threat before the 15th, and by the 20th we might be looking at the front end of a classic favorable (and stable) h5 set up.

Chuck is like an astable multivibrator. His thoughts are constantly in oscillation.

That looks like low pressure on the NC coast to me. Haven't seen an h5 look like this for a while.

Yep

Foot Long Foles is the man.

Very odd. And he made the first kick easily. Those damn 'freeze the kicker' timeouts never work! lol. The Bears will have a new kicker soon.

Foles will be probably be a 2 time SB MVP, and still be a backup.

Not much, but this run keeps my yard in the game.

Yup pretty much perfect. Except it crushes Southern/Central VA. Plenty of time for minor tweaks.

lol just a wee bit different than 12z.

Happy hour delivering.