CAPE

I really like the PV dropping south this run. Its also more intense/expansive. We have a daughter vortex on our side, and she will surely shed off some...granddaughters?

EPS seems to be bringing the epic pattern from the weeklies forward in time. 12z is pretty damn sweet at the end.

More intense TPV dropping south towards Hudson Bay by day 13 on the 12z EPS, with +heights forming near GL.

Just goes to show how quick things can change in this biz. We were mired in a Pacific puke shutout pattern with no end in sight and now we have the EURO teasing with a potential KU inside of 10 days.

I have been cautiously optimistic, but given how quickly things seem to be changing in our favor over the last day or 2, mid month might be our first legit threat window in what seems like forever. But yeah beyond that the h5 looks are beginning to look very palatable.

Only 9 days to get a 50-75 mile shift. Admittedly thats going to be difficult.

Smokes eastern NJ up through SNE.

Go back and look at what it had at 0z lol. Seems there might be some middle ground there.

I had a 'gut feeling' the pattern would change sooner than recent guidance was depicting. I mentioned in a post yesterday evening that the next couple runs of the EPS would have people feeling giddy in here. Still, I was a bit surprised to see the sudden shift to more favorable on the 0z run this morning. The op runs today also seem to be hinting at a quicker flip as well. Maybe the models are playing catch up and really just now locking on to whats been going on with the Strat and MJO events.

I love the concept of a cold and snowy December. The holidays are upon us, the low sun angle/short days- the idea of cold and snow at that time is just so freaking romantic. But yeah, the reality is it happens so rarely in this region its best to just let it go and accept that it really is just another Fall month- even though its the first month of Met winter.

Important thing is that we appear to be moving out of this Pac dominated pattern and transitioning to what we were all expecting. My feeling for a while now has been that because the Nino is a late starter/ SOI had been positive, it was going to take some time to see a legit atmospheric response. The strong MJO pulse plus the SWE were wildcards and became complicating factors. The timing of the SPV split, and the forecasted progression of the MJO both argued for more lag in the pattern evolution. I was never impressed with the possibility of sneaking in an event around New Years or into early Jan. I pretty much closed the shades and have been focusing on the idea of getting a serviceable pattern around mid month. I always try to be realistic with my expectations if nothing else, but have remained optimistic that mid-late Jan will become more favorable for winter weather around here.

That was the "front loaded" winter many seem to pine after. It pretty much died after December. And how is it remembered?

He doesn't have exclusive rights here to that projected flip date.

That's a true statement. Best look this year for sure.

Yes a combination. The SOI has been dropping, and finally it looks as though we are seeing a Nino like response from the atmosphere. The EPS has been incrementally improving IMO, but this is a pretty big and undeniable step forward. I have been expecting the ens to 'catch on' to whats been happening with the SPV, and the manner and magnitude of the impact on the troposphere. And yes the MJO is also moving out of the warmer phases.

0z EPS made a significant move to a more favorable h5 look much sooner. Several days ahead of the weeklies.

We getting there now..

When is it not in winter? Personally, I think I have maintained my manic state quite well.

If we have a day 10 event and the weeklies start showing up on the eps...oh man Already started really. 12z run today was a nice step forward- up top and in the EPAC. I bet the next few runs will have people getting giddy in here.

I made note of that earlier, and even yesterday runs (wrt to previous edition of the weeklies). The progression and timing has looked pretty close... within a few days.

I think we are still in the game for a workable pattern by the 20th. Some sort of a fluke deal is certainly not impossible before that.

IDK dude. Maybe take another look at the Sat photo above of the La Nina Bomb cyclone.

^Every panel beyond that looks epic.

New Weeklies- Gets really good starting with this panel.