CAPE

I guess i'm not. One reason is the tellies on the EPS runs lately have consistently shown both the AO and NAO trending to neutral as we get to Dec 1. So not too surprising the weeklies have both indices positive a week or 2 later. I also have little confidence that is correct, although playing the odds (given recent winters) it probably would not be a bad bet to make. If the currently advertised HL blocking does in fact verify per the current global ens guidance over the next 10 days, then I would expect the weeklies to adjust. My preference is to just take it 10 days or so at a time using the global ensembles, given the utter failure of the weeklies/climate models last winter. Using that metric, I like what I see going forward.

Thats one reason why I find them mostly useless. They are smoothed to the point of almost complete ambiguity. Some people will see those panels as pretty decent, and others will think they completely suck ass.

If you ignore the shaded anomalies and focus on the height lines it ain't too bad.

Not sure why you care lol. I know I don't. Give me a sec and I will post a couple panels tho. They aren't great, but I have seen worse.

If the QBO keeps trending to neutral/negative, combined with near solar min, favorable tropospheric forcing mechanisms that act to weaken the PV, and potentially weak Nino forcing, we may end up with a -AO and by association a -NAO. No one knows exactly how the HL look will evolve. Its difficult to predict at long lead times. I can see a case for some relatively short lived blocking in the near term, a relaxation, then a more significant NA block developing later in winter. Hopefully the PNA/EPO/WPO will be generally favorable when the NA is less so.

I agree. The super LR models are not worth more than the casual glance IMO. Just saying, what they are currently advertising in general is probably the mostly likely outcome given the persistence of a +NAO during the winter months in recent years.

The thing about the weeklies/seasonal/climate guidance- pretty much all depicting a +NAO moving forward- is they align with the persistence of the (+)NAO phase for winter going back many years. Just sayin'. It's like predicting warmer than avg temps for met winter. By default, you will probably be correct.

Not too concerned with seeing "extreme" cold here in the near term. It rarely does us any good before mid Dec. There are some hints on the ens guidance of ridging trying to reestablish in the EPO domain, so there is that. We are all just trying to get a feel for the potential background state at this juncture, and seeing persistent troughing near the Aleutians and the lack of a SE ridge are good signs. We will see how things evolve in the HL/NA. Not seeing any indications yet of a raging +AO/NAO developing going forward.(other than most climate/ seasonal models suggesting it lol)

I don't think too much blocking is even remotely a concern at this point. A good start is to see if it materializes as advertised. Most likely we see a -NAO for the end of the month period. How negative it gets and how long it lasts is TBD. EPS is not as robust as the GEFS with the NA blocky look, and has been trending both the AO and NAO to neutral as we move into December. As always, we shall see.

Third string pounding the block.

That was a seriously fun winter. Lots of luck involved, but hey sometimes things just go our way. The frozen inland waters and even large parts of the bay was awesome too. Love that stuff. eta- I think that was the winter that featured the epic poetry thread. lol fun times.

Yes a legit block and a moderate Nino combo is a great equalizer. Otherwise it's mostly a crap shoot. I don't mind a Nina because we can get plenty cold, and with the baroclinic boundary further east I can catch the edge of offshore coastals/developing Miller Bs like a couple winters ago. Chased back to back early Jan big storms at the beach, and still came home to 6" of snow that stayed around for 5-6 days both years. Ofc west of the bay it was classic cold/dry. Last winter my yard failed every way possible lol. Was uncanny.

Never easy or simple in this region. Often a flawed pattern ends up getting it done. That works better for you than me though lol.

EPS looks damn good. GEFS looks good wrt to HL/NA blocking, but trends towards lower heights out west. Not necessarily a bad thing, but I prefer the EPS look.

I know you know this, but looking at composites/means do not imply that the given anomaly will be there 100% of the time. Give me a general cold look imby and I will take my chances every time- If its dry, its dry. Can't snow if it's not cold enough. You clearly view things from the other end of the stick, but thats a function of our disparate climo in this region. eta- I thought you preferred a cold winter with multiple low end events (eg NS) rather than an overall mild winter with one big dog(2016). Also, good chance the atmosphere behaves more like a weak Nino than a Nina, so there should be some STJ action undercutting any ridging out west.

Remains to be seen if there is a flip to an awful pattern ofc. If you look at the teleconnections on the EPS weeklies, the AO/NAO trends quickly positive heading into Dec on the means- not extremely so- but does align with the general idea of what the climate/seasonal models are depicting for the HL. Big grain of salt with all of this. This winter I am basically sticking with the LR ensembles, as the EPS/CFS weeklies/seasonal models are super low skill and a general exercise in frustration to glean anything meaningful. I am content with continuously monitoring 7-10 days out.

Not a fan of the weeklies in general after last year. Only as good as the eps run they are based off of. Might be somewhat useful in cases where advertised ens LR pattern is consistent across many runs. Otherwise a given weeklies run can become invalid very quickly- like one ens cycle later lol.

Yup I commented on this when you posted the GEFS panel earlier. Let's hope it materializes, and it has some persistence moving into early winter where climo becomes more favorable. Yeah we all know Dec ends up being just another fall month more times than not, but we are due for a little early winter action. We got jobbed last Dec.

That's just the nature of the beast on the coastal plain. We still get hammered usually in those classic setups.. other than something like 2016 when the poorly modeled dryslot from hell was the culprit. Even so, 'half a storm' produced 15" here.

@psuhoffman Having an established tendency for HL blocking is fine. That works. I am making a distinction between that and ridging that develops in the NAO space as a result of a deep NS vortex lobe rotating through. That might look impressive on guidance, but it lasts a day or 2 and quickly moves out- that becomes a thread the needle deal for it to work for us.

Yes it is, in winter. Extinct practically. Been what, 9-10 years now?

It's not black and white that way. Many times however, having a cold air mass firmly entrenched, with moisture moving into it , gives the best chances for widespread frozen for much of our region. We don't need super cold, just need the correct h5 setup. High pressure over the lakes, Low to the NE off the maritimes.

They all suck in general. We all know that. Ofc one might ask why anyone would bite on the LR ensembles depiction of a legit -NAO given recent history. I am skeptical until it happens in real time. Looks nice on paper. Lets see what happens. We have seen transient/bootleg stuff, but not a legit block.

EPS is very similar. Looks a bit better out west with a more defined ridge. If this ends up verifying, it will be interesting to see how quickly the NA look breaks down, given what the majority of longer range/seasonal models are depicting for Dec.