CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Doesn't suck for me.
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CMC looks very similar
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Rain/Snow in my forecast for Monday night. I will enjoy that while it lasts.
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He may very well be right. I guess I was gently bitching about all the posts featuring opinions by random folks on twitter who I don't know, and have no idea why I should care what they think(excluding someone like HM). Maybe i'm just getting old lol, but I know where to find Twitter if I "need" it. I don't mind a few twitter based posts here and there that add value, and frd does a nice job in general as he adds in his own take, and doesn't simply plop tweets into a post.
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I always wonder who these Twitter self promoter types are and why I should value their opinions. So Webb is a frustrated snow weenie from NC. Now I got it.
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Latest CFS runs agree. Torches us Dec through Feb. Cancel winter I guess..oops hold on- it says March will be rockin'!!
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December looks neutral to me, Jan looks Positive, and Feb- who knows. The fact that Nov and Dec look fine is good enough given the skill of a seasonal model. Jan may look entirely different on the next edition in a month.
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Fwiw, the Nov 1 edition of the Euro Seasonal is out. Looks like a continuation of the good look in the EPO/PNA domains, and no red flags in the NA. Gets pretty ambiguous with the height anomalies after the first month, but looking at height lines the NAO is probably neutral-ish for the most part. Temps are below avg for November(obvious) and verbatim look normal for Dec, Jan, and Feb.
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This h5 look is something I would rather see as we are approaching mid Dec, but it's on the table so what the hell, maybe some part of our region can score something given the highly anomalous nature of the advertised pattern.
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29 here this morning
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It needs to get steppin' to catch up to pretty much all other guidance, including the ICON. Or maybe it will score a coup with the suppressed event.
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@showmethesnow Nice write up. This period has been popping out as one with some potential. The usual caveats- its early, climo, etc. It would take a pretty anomalous airmass/set up for it to snow on the coast the second week of November, but it can happen, and the h5 looks we are seeing from the guidance lately is pretty anomalous looking lol.
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I don't think this is going to work out well for the FV3.
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He sure the eff did. Wtf?
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Guidance keeps spitting out looks like this, and it is real, things could get interesting early.
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Sure does. I went to watch the Steelers-Colts game for a bit, then came back and looked at the rest of the run. Interesting. Long way out.
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12z Euro has a moderate snow for N half of PA into SNE.
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Colors here definitely seem uninspired. Not much vibrancy. So many leaves were off the trees early due to stress. There is some decent color, but mostly I see bare trees or brown, and still some green in the case of some of the oaks.
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Slight differences in the LR on the GFS- the big blue ball of doom for the 13th is gone. The negative 15-20C departures are now +3 lol. No more Barney. Then we really torch after that.
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It tries to do a bit of a phase job- definitely more dig in the NS- but positive tilt/progressive and it's too little, too late.
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This is a touchy setup to be fair- fast flow, cold pressing, plus a SS vort in the SW that could try to partially phase with NS energy as it ejects. That looks less likely on recent runs, and ofc that's what folks in NE are rooting for. This is good practice for us, because odds are no matter how it plays out, it's probably mostly if not all rain for this region. Not sure I saw any flat wave scenarios on the Euro ens members that had much more than a r-s mix on the northern fringe
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Gonna be fun around here this winter with the "new" GFS.
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Need to cash in over the next 2 weeks with fantastic cooperation on the Pacific side bringing the cold. Sense of urgency!! Good to see persistence in the LR with the favorable PNA/EPO/WPO. If the pattern plays out as advertised, there probably will be some relaxation towards the end of the month, which would be a good thing.
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Completely different context. QBO monitors the periodic shift in the zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere. These winds periodically shift between westerlies and easterlies. The easterly phase is associated with a weakening SPV, and potentially the development of HL blocking.
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0z Euro is flat, suppressed, and weak. Doesn't come together the same way in the upper levels. Precip gets as far north as SE PA. Verbatim maybe a R-S mix on the northern fringe. There are a significant number of ens members with a storm. The ones with legit snow almost all have it to our north favoring NE. These members develop a stronger coastal low further north. Mean total snow for extreme N MD is 0.8" through next Sat morning. Anywhere south of that is 0.1-0.2. The 2" line in N PA.
