CAPE

0z EPS made a significant move to a more favorable h5 look much sooner. Several days ahead of the weeklies.

We getting there now..

When is it not in winter? Personally, I think I have maintained my manic state quite well.

If we have a day 10 event and the weeklies start showing up on the eps...oh man Already started really. 12z run today was a nice step forward- up top and in the EPAC. I bet the next few runs will have people getting giddy in here.

I made note of that earlier, and even yesterday runs (wrt to previous edition of the weeklies). The progression and timing has looked pretty close... within a few days.

I think we are still in the game for a workable pattern by the 20th. Some sort of a fluke deal is certainly not impossible before that.

IDK dude. Maybe take another look at the Sat photo above of the La Nina Bomb cyclone.

^Every panel beyond that looks epic.

New Weeklies- Gets really good starting with this panel.

Everyone is a bit frustrated. You never give up. You cant. It's a disease. You always track till the end, brother.

It took about 6-7 days last run to get from borderline decent to sweet look.

Disaster because everytime they come out it looks great week 3. Its a running joke now with Bob But he is a Deb, so..

I am done worrying about the damn MJO, lol. If this "Nino" is legit, the MJO should not be the predominate pattern driver. It is late to get going though, so maybe we see more Nino like behavior from the atmosphere as we progress into and through Feb.

Not updated on WB yet. Good to hear if true. Based on the EPS runs lately(0z specifically) I was expecting it to follow the same general progression as the last edition, other than kicking the can a bit again.

I am adjusting expectations on the fly. Any ideas of this becoming an epic Nino winter with a sustained -AO/NAO and multiple KU threats is all but gone. I accepted that at least half of Jan was toast a week ago. Maybe we get shut out for the whole month, after a snow-less Dec. That would be remarkable, but not impossible. If so, we still have Feb, and it usually finds ways to snow in Feb. My yard has seen 1/2" of slop so far, but I wont complain. I was over climo snowfall last winter, and chased a blizzard at the beach. Many others got next to nothing. This winter now has all the earmarks of a major struggle just to get a single pure snow event. I am pretty sure it will happen at least once or twice some place in our region outside of the mountains though. It would be awesome if we could thread the needle and get a region wide warning level event once over the next 10 weeks.

Not sure we have a Nino- at least not much atmospheric response yet. I would take last Jan over the way this one looks to play out, and its not even close.

Guidance really doesn't have much cold in our part of the world post SPV split. There is one small consolidated TPV that rotates down south of GL. Our little daughter vortex isn't sharing her cold.

Incremental improvement!!

Pretty sad to see the 540 line barely into the N US in what will be mid Jan, lol.

My WAG is it has the same general progression, but shifted back a few days.

Its pretty close to the weeklies look for the same date. Better up top, not quite as good in the EPO region. Heading that way though. We rollin! eta- the ridge N of Hawaii really weakens/flattens at the end of the run.

EPS is trying. Getting better up top. At least we have normal h5 heights over us at day 15 lol.

Think about what this place would have been like if the Dec 2009 storm had missed. There was no significant snow until the end of Jan after that if I remember correctly.

If we had a legit Nino, I doubt the MJO would be "overwhelming" the pattern.