CAPE

Looks like the SPV will undergo some perturbation/elongation after an apparently brief strengthening. GEFS has the TPV on our side of the pole in the long range with surface pressure building up top in the AO domain. Current CPC forecast has the AO trending negative after the first week in Nov. Lets see how this plays out, and if it verifies, does it actually become a sustained feature going forward.

Pretty gross out. Was outside blowing leaves and sweating. This storm did have tropical origins so I guess it's not that unusual, but it's late October man!

Looks like its about over, but feels tropical. Maybe something fires along the actual front. 0.80" here, and 5.12" for the month.

Mid 70s tomorrow with marginal risk of severe. woohoo. Late October football weather.

Yup. A -AO along with a Nino have the highest correlation to above avg snow for DC I believe. Not surprising. When there is a sustained -AO, there is also a tendency for NA blocking to develop. Nino strength and location also has an influence on the NAO state.

It's early yet. We just can't know.

Looks like plenty of east coast ridging and mild temps for the foreseeable future. Nothing too extreme but several degrees above average(nothing new). Cool shot still showing up on the means for early November- probably seasonal temps or maybe slightly below for a few days. Beyond that- more ridging?

Well at least we now know(as we should have all along) that the CanSIPS was still a crap model, as it always had been, and despite this "update" it surely will continue to be...complete crap.

This was the CanSIPS h5 look for Nov when the Sept 30(October run) initially came out. It only got better from there. This is the message on TT- CanSIPS hindcast climatology has been updated for the new version of the model, and anomalies are now correct again. Meaning a complete 180 from this map, lol.

You are correct. The original Oct 1 run looked like the previous 2. Mega HL blocking. They clearly did some sort of update.

Well it was pretty much the only climate model with that look. As we have discussed over and over... a legit -NAO is pretty much extinct during winter until it materializes in real time.

Yes it sure has changed. Pretty much a 180.

Yeah I just looked. The original Oct1 run had a -AO/NAO. I Posted about it when it came out..So there has been some sort of an update. Pretty crapola now.

Yeah it has been advertising that look since July I believe. Been steadfast with a bigtime HL blocking look. I guess the true test is to see if it begins to develop in early to mid Nov, as it has been indicating that to be the case for several runs now. We won't have to wait too long to see if it is onto something, or way out in left field. eta- just looked and it is much different now, so something has changed lol. The original Oct 1 run had a bigtime -AO/-NAO like the previous runs- now it looks more like the CFS. Oh well. More in line with the rest of the seasonal/climate models.

So maybe the CanSIPS has been on to something for several months now? Asking for a friend. I would love a wall to wall winter with HL blocking, but cant get past the persistence aspect of a predominantly +AO/+NAO regime during the winter months for what seems like an eternity now.

Yeah remember a week or so ago when all 3 global ensemble means were advertising that epic pattern for the end of October? We really need to stop falling for that shiit lol.

We want to see the SPV consistently and systematically disrupted and perturbed. Perpetually pummeled. That translates to the negative phase of the AO, and that process starts in the fall. During the winter months, a sustained –AO correlates strongly to cold and above average snowfall for the MA region.

I was being more critical of the post by BTRWx than yours. You need to be more selective wrt the posts you reply/react to.

lol what a bad couple of posts- the one he replied to is even worse. Yes, because what we want to see heading into early Nov is a strong SPV- a big consolidated blue ball. That means Dec should rock!

Luckily no one really cares given the time of the year, but I will go out on a limb and say the GFS will 'trend' towards the Euro idea. The pattern is active and progressive, so big discrepancies at range are not uncommon when comparing op runs.

That is truly the new normal. +3 to +5 month after month. If DJF ends up + 1 or 2, it's a major win.

Low 70s in early November is fine. I have adjusted to the new normal.

39 here

Looks like a good radiational cooling night so I guess they are going a few degrees below guidance for the outlying areas. Calm winds and pretty low dews- mid 30s will produce some scattered frost. Had some pretty impressive frost here last Saturday morning in the open areas, with a forecast low of 39, and no frost advisory.

PDO looks like it might be trending towards the warm phase. Always difficult to read the significance for winter at this juncture, but this certainly isn't a bad sign IMO.