CAPE

The h5 look on the EPS should become noticeably more favorable over the next couple runs. Today's 12z run ends on Jan 17th. The advertised h5 look from today's run aligns quite well with the 17th from the most recent edition of the weeklies. I know for some the the progression seems painfully slowwww or non-existent, but it is in pretty good alignment with the look and the timing from the weeklies of a few days ago- the EPO ridge started to really take shape around the 18-19th, and the overall pattern became progressively more favorable from there.

I also doubt there is much truth to it.

Actually 0z looked a tad better at the end. Appears no 'good' trend is underway though. EPS is on one hell of an extended run of bad chili.

Bob's inner Deb may be going away for awhile.

I think this is how to interpret it. I also think even on the means the AN heights will disappear on future runs if the look up top is legit, and NA blocking persists.

Its probably a combo of the EPAC ridge axis being a bit too far west, PAC jet undercutting, and NA ridging is a tad weak/too far north. Correctable with minor tweaks.

That look is nothing new. EPS is incrementally progressing towards a more serviceable pattern, but it wont be until beyond the 20th if recent runs are correct. I suspect odds are the GEFS will cave somewhat to the EPS, rather than the EPS speeding up the progression to a better pattern. But yeah, its going to be a while yet.

EPS is getting there, just painfully slow. There is progression with the ridge building towards AK and splitting the area of lower heights in the EPAC. Up top and in the NA, there is incremental improvement, but again- slowww. Can see hints towards D15 of the NAO trending towards neutral. Just a gut feeling, but I think the EPS will accelerate the pattern change over the next few runs with the MJO moving into better phases and as it nails down the post SWE TPV position(s).

Only thing I see that's better is the trough in GOA is weaker on the 12z run. Have to see if its just noise or if the lower h5 heights continue to shift more over the Aleutians going forward.

NYC subforum? Go hang out with them.

I agree with you for the most part. The SOI has finally moved into negative territory, and with the MJO moving towards the better phases I think we will gradually see some response over the next few ensemble runs. Hopefully the result of the current strat warming will produce 'favorable' impacts on the troposphere as well. Just 2 more weeks !! and we could be back into a serviceable pattern.

Its a step in the direction of what the EPS is advertising though. There is a lot going on currently, so both models are probably going to struggle to get the evolving pattern correct in the LR. Its a wait game, and no one is any mood for more waiting. It is what it is though.

The SOI has been positive, ENSO is officially neutral, and the atmosphere has been behaving like a Nina. I suppose the strong warm phase MJO pulse could be overwhelming the pattern and making it behave even more Nina-like. With the drop in the SOI, and the MJO moving out of the warm phases(or dying out) I would think we see a more Nino like atmospheric response emerge over the coming weeks. At least that's my hope. Of course the other wildcard is the SWE and the potential impacts from that.

CPC/NCEP Here is the most recent update (today): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

I honestly think I am done blaming this "disappointment" of a pattern on the MJO. Remember the concept of, when sh*t is going wrong, we bring up the MJO- otherwise, its barely mentioned? Here is the reality- we currently do not have a legit Nino- the background state is not Nino, and in fact, the overall pattern is behaving much more like a Nina. Currently, and officially, the ENSO is neutral, so this 'unfavorable' pattern really should not be a shocking development. Sure the current MJO pulse is robust and lagging in the warmer phases, and while it does have an influence, obviously it alone does not dictate the large scale long wave pattern. The SOI has been positive- more in line with a Nina. Just today it has flipped slightly negative I believe. I suspect going forward the troposphere will begin to behave more like a Nino(assuming the guidance is correct and a weak Nino is in fact underway), and we will see more favorable h5 "snowy" looks heading into the very end of Jan and esp Feb into early March. This Nino is both weak and late to the party, and I think the high expectations have largely been a function of the early hyperbole associated with unreasonable comparisons to winters such as 2009-10. I expect the EPAC will become favorable, and we will see a period of sustained NA blocking, much later than most preferred, but in line with a later developing El Nino.

Daughters or sisters? I think I prefer twisted sisters.

GEFS has been pretty consistently advertising a pretty decent/serviceable h5 look in the LR for the past several runs. I am totally good with this look. If only the EPS would make a move in this direction.

Except we had a Nino by early August of 09 IIRC. The ENSO is still officially neutral as of today. We could still have an epic latter third of winter though if this thing gets its sh*t together.

That's damn near perfect.

Yeah, we need a Nino instead of a Nina.

Poop away lad. Turd dropping in this thread has not been uncommon!

Wonder how far we can kick the can? Honestly, Feb into March should be our best period for snow chances, esp given the late start to this Nino. Yes, as of today, ENSO is still offically Neutral.

EPS weeklies look epic for Feb. We just need to punt the second month of met winter in addition to the first, and we will be rockin'.

You have 5 posts and should probably be 5-posted.

I know you are just "popping in" and all, but maybe let the run finish? Then lets see what the GEFS looks like before making declarations.