CAPE

Chargers know the passing game is zero threat at this point, and they have pretty much stuffed the run. Might be Flacco time.

Yeah actually the Browns did this late in the second half last week and it was effective. Crazy the Ravens didn't have some new wrinkles to counter.

Ravens have a secret weapon off the bench once they get down 20-0. F-L-A-C-C-O

Yeah Wince is an injury waiting to happen. A real wuss.

Yes great vibe. Love C&M and the DFH Brew Pub next door. Great beers and really good food at both places.

Been drinking this DFH IPA available only on tap for now- it is so awesome. Hopefully they will bottle it at some point. Damn, is it good. Drinking it at Chesapeake & Maine. Here is the description- Compellingly Mellowdious IPA marries the intensity of a classic American IPA with the heady, herbal sensations of Dogfish Head Distilling Co.'s line of off-centered gins. Brewed from barley, wheat and rye, and spiced with Cascade and Simcoe hops, this beer's got layers upon layers of complexity from the addition of a unique blend of botanicals ... including juniper, coriander, orange peel and green cardamom. The result is a singular drinking experience that evokes fine gin cocktails and a boatload of good times. The beer's ample aroma and dry, clean finish are an appetizing lead-in to the many memorable sips that follow!

Texans in some trouble. Better score on this drive.

I am in Rehoboth(no blizzard this time) brewpub/bar/tap house hopping and watching the games. Drinking ofc.

The Feb look is absolute perfection.

Brief relaxation; reload. don't worry!

The pattern that winter was such that an amped storm would usually cut. Monster -EPO. No NA blocking at all. That storm/set up and the results were probably as good as gets for a big event in that pattern.

Got 18 inches lol Had 4-5" of heavy snow that flipped like a switch to heavy rain and washed most of it away. Nothing but flurries on the back end. Awful storm in what was otherwise a great period of winter weather here.

I hated that storm, lol. Sucked here. I will be rooting for a different evolution.

The reality- at least it appears to be the case right now, is there are going to be multiple daughter vortices- probably 3, for awhile. And as modeled, one piece will be on our side. It is what it is, but I actually like it for now, and looking through the last couple GFS runs, you can see the TPV shedding off lobes, or smaller vortices, which rotate into the 50-50 region and produce/enhance lower pressure there towards day 15. Its a great mechanism IMO to keep lower heights in that region with blocking over top. The TPV a good feature to have around as long is it doesn't go bonkers and drop down to Toronto or something. Now, as things progress and if we do get a stout -AO/EPO/NAO then as PSU said, we probably wont need(or have at that point) a TPV in our part of the world.

Not big into poetry, But I always loved this one- Pitcher by Robert Francis His art is eccentricity, his aim How not to hit the mark he seems to aim at, His passion how to avoid the obvious, His technique how to vary the avoidance. The others throw to be comprehended. He Throws to be a moment misunderstood. Yet not too much. Not errant, arrant, wild, But every seeming aberration willed. Not to, yet still, still to communicate Making the batter understand too late.

I was quite pleased with generally light rain and drizzle, although there was a downpour in the early AM that kind of came out of nowhere.

Actually had this problem in a Calculus or Physics course in college. A curve ball does "break" and as I recall it can be proven with basic differential equations used in fluid mechanics, and a little trig.

It doesn't look any worse than the last 2 runs. I honestly wish snowfall mean maps didn't exist. Has little value unless there is a persistent, discrete threat showing up on guidance inside of day 10 IMO.

The BOMM is da bomb!

Hopefully we have a legit weak Nino now and the atmosphere is beginning to respond. Let it drive from here on out.

A few days in the good phases then let it die and get out of the way.

Yes it does and it is a good look. Go look at the op run at the very end and notice how those lower heights get into the 50-50 position.

I will go along with this. Of course, this may very well be a meteorological impossibility.

Many times when we have our 'epic' HL patterns, the 50-50 low can result from smaller vortices being shed off of a parent TPV (sitting in the vicinity of Hudson Bay), rotating down and getting 'trapped' underneath the NA block.

from bluewave <<<< Yes, I remember. The fire hose NP Jet this year reminds me of La Niña. Notice the Niña-like ridge holding on stubbornly north of Hawaii. This is creating a stronger jet further north than we typically see during an El Niño. So we continue to have these fast NP jet issues over North America. The latest EPS means continue this for at least the next week to 10 days. >>>> That Hawaii ridge flattens/weakens dramatically towards the end of the run, and the NPAC trough moves into a more favorable position. That trough is so deep and expansive though.. really want to see it weaken/retro a bit more, otherwise it could inhibit development of a -EPO, and also tend to keep a flow of PAC air into the western third of Canada. Kinda living on the edge with the current projected PAC look on the EPS. At this point I think it will retrograde and weaken enough as to not be a thorn in the side of the (desired) pattern evolution.