CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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It would likely be rain, with the midweek cold going stale/moving out. I am down for a soaking rain though. It's starting to get a bit dry here again.
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I'll give the Euro another run or 2 to really raise expectations with a region wide warning event before crushing everyone's dreams.
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0z Euro got it done. A 2-4" deal for the region. EPS snowfall mean improved nicely.
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It is an odd looking evolution, and one I highly doubt ends up being ground truth reality. Seems to have an initial wave along the front, then develops low pressure somewhere along the coast, so snow NW of the metros then rain changing to snow SE, but mostly rain in between.
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It has generally been about the same for several runs, but there have been better. It is splitting hairs though for a mean. The 0z run had an inch+ for DC to Dover through 0z Thursday, compared to 0.7" for the 12z run.
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lol it sucks. But to be expected given its early Nov. Keep expectations in check.
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We a long way from knowing how this plays out. One wave, or 2? Wound up cutter? I just can't get excited about it because, well, climo. If I lived in Canaan, yeah I would be totally into it. If I see a few flakes in the air here before Nov 15th, it's a win.
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Doesn't suck for me.
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CMC looks very similar
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Rain/Snow in my forecast for Monday night. I will enjoy that while it lasts.
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He may very well be right. I guess I was gently bitching about all the posts featuring opinions by random folks on twitter who I don't know, and have no idea why I should care what they think(excluding someone like HM). Maybe i'm just getting old lol, but I know where to find Twitter if I "need" it. I don't mind a few twitter based posts here and there that add value, and frd does a nice job in general as he adds in his own take, and doesn't simply plop tweets into a post.
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I always wonder who these Twitter self promoter types are and why I should value their opinions. So Webb is a frustrated snow weenie from NC. Now I got it.
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Latest CFS runs agree. Torches us Dec through Feb. Cancel winter I guess..oops hold on- it says March will be rockin'!!
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December looks neutral to me, Jan looks Positive, and Feb- who knows. The fact that Nov and Dec look fine is good enough given the skill of a seasonal model. Jan may look entirely different on the next edition in a month.
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Fwiw, the Nov 1 edition of the Euro Seasonal is out. Looks like a continuation of the good look in the EPO/PNA domains, and no red flags in the NA. Gets pretty ambiguous with the height anomalies after the first month, but looking at height lines the NAO is probably neutral-ish for the most part. Temps are below avg for November(obvious) and verbatim look normal for Dec, Jan, and Feb.
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This h5 look is something I would rather see as we are approaching mid Dec, but it's on the table so what the hell, maybe some part of our region can score something given the highly anomalous nature of the advertised pattern.
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29 here this morning
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It needs to get steppin' to catch up to pretty much all other guidance, including the ICON. Or maybe it will score a coup with the suppressed event.
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@showmethesnow Nice write up. This period has been popping out as one with some potential. The usual caveats- its early, climo, etc. It would take a pretty anomalous airmass/set up for it to snow on the coast the second week of November, but it can happen, and the h5 looks we are seeing from the guidance lately is pretty anomalous looking lol.
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I don't think this is going to work out well for the FV3.
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He sure the eff did. Wtf?
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Guidance keeps spitting out looks like this, and it is real, things could get interesting early.
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Sure does. I went to watch the Steelers-Colts game for a bit, then came back and looked at the rest of the run. Interesting. Long way out.
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12z Euro has a moderate snow for N half of PA into SNE.
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Colors here definitely seem uninspired. Not much vibrancy. So many leaves were off the trees early due to stress. There is some decent color, but mostly I see bare trees or brown, and still some green in the case of some of the oaks.
