CAPE

In a nutshell from WPC- still plenty of uncertainty and important details still yet to be resolved... Some guidance is still showing meaningful spread and variability but there is gradually increasing potential for a heavy rainfall event somewhere within an area extending from the central Appalachians through Mid-Atlantic to the eastern Carolinas. Typical guidance error for forecasts several days out in time--as well as difficulty in resolving important smaller-scale details that will determine where heavier rainfall bands as well as training/repeat activity set up--keep the confidence in specifics fairly low at this time. Localized maximum five-day totals of 5-10 inches may be possible depending on the exact path of the upper low. At the same time the clouds/rainfall will keep high temperatures around 5-12F below normal over portions of the East. Readings should drift closer to normal by next Wed-Thu.

Picked up 0.34" today. Not very impressive, but better than nothing. I knew running the sprinkler yesterday was the right move.

It has a similarly ridiculous looking precip max further south over eastern VA though. 20"+ lol Reality will probably be some chances for scattered showers/storms for a few days next week.

Just a tad wetter than its previous runs. At least for one run, it appears to have completely folded to the Euro idea at h5. Awful model.

Mount Holly's take for early next week. Probably a good move to go with the Euro over the flip flopping GFS at this point lol.

Gross. It is what we do best unfortunately.

Still some major differences with how guidance handles the upper low for next week. Euro digs it much further south and west, towards the lower Ohio Valley, and it hangs around longer. Latest GFS runs have it further NE and more progressive. Euro looks to dump a bunch of rain SW of our region, mostly in the mountains.

Sultry.

Bring it. GGEM looks pretty wet for early next week as well. GFS, not so much.

Yeah very nice. Was 57 when I got up. Looks like it might push 90 here this afternoon.

Early next week looks a tad interesting with upper level energy dropping in and getting pinched off as ridging builds to the north. All 3 major globals have the same idea, and ofc the GFS drives it well south under crushing HP. @losetoa6 Latest EPS still have some members with biblical rains?

High of 80 here. 73 currently. Extremely nice evening. Mid to upper 80s the rest of the week but doesn't look too awfully humid. Some random storm chances too it appears.

I was just thinking this after I mowed earlier. Lush green. I need to stay ahead of the game if I have any chance of my grass not frying in the next few weeks. Despite over 2.5" of rain over the past few days, I will run the sprinkler tomorrow. Insane how quickly the soil dries out this time of year here. Being in the woods with well drained soil makes it very hard to sustain the grass during the high sun angle period, esp if it's torching and dry.

I have a mini obsession with driftwood. I have it in random places outside and inside the house. This is my driftwood/rock garden, with some potted plants and the weather station. (it sits over top the septic tank which is just below the surface, and I always had a square brown spot there lol).

64/57 Much better than this time yesterday.

Nice! Next few days will be perfect for taking the hot rod out and laying down some rubber.

There are some storms firing up now in southern/eastern areas with the juice still in place. Looks to be scattered/isolated though. Probably be pretty intense for places that get under one though.

Bit of a breeze here too now. Still hella humid. 84/75

I will gladly take h5 looks like this in mid June.

83/74

This is why some drier air probably gets in ahead of the front and possibly keeps any storms rather isolated this afternoon/evening. We are on the backside of the pre-frontal trough that moved through overnight.

Maybe some drier air has advected in over there already. It is hideous here.

Late afternoon/ evening. One inhibiting factor for storm development is the flow ahead of the main front is likely to bring some drier air into the area this afternoon. I will be keeping an eye on the dew point here. Its sultry as hell out there now. Just do anything for a few minutes and you are soaked. Already took a shower.

Steam bath out there. 78/74 Might be interesting when the front comes through later. Looking forward to the next few days. Should feel awesome after our first bout of heat and humidity.

The localized nature of rainfall in the summer can be painful. My run of frustration lies ahead I'm sure. Always seems to happen at the worst time here.