CAPE

It was sunny and dry all day here yesterday until late afternoon. Ofc the wind was blowing 55 mph and tree crap was flying all over the place..

There is a slight chance of showers in the forecast, and the mesos basically had/have that area of rain disintegrating. Guess I will find out lol.

Well that whipped through quick. Brief gusty storm. Better part of the line went just to my SW. Just a tenth of an inch of rain.

Warning here. Lots of thunder and wind picked up dramatically.

Full sun here the last couple hours.

Thoughts from Mt Holly for tomorrow- Interesting weather shaping up for Tue with a strong cold front attached to a strong H5 trough expected to swing thru the area during the afternoon. The latest SWODY2 has upgraded our CWA to a slight risk for severe with strong winds and small hail the main threats. There is plenty of cold air aloft and strong winds for tstms, but the overall moisture and instability is limited, so we`ll have to wait and see how things unfold Tue morning.

A bit dated but I just saw this. The shot I took above is looking towards Baltimore corner, where it touched down. My thought at the time was most likely a rain shaft, but that was probably the location of the tornado as well. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 300 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2020 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/13/20 TORNADO EVENT... .HENDERSON MD TORNADO... START LOCATION...BALTIMORE CORNER IN CAROLINE COUNTY MD END LOCATION...HENDERSON IN CAROLINE COUNTY MD DATE...APR 13 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...327 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...30 YARDS PATH LENGTH...4.9 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.0642/-75.8548 ENDING LAT/LON...39.0649/-75.7644 * FATALITIES...NONE * INJURIES...NONE ...SUMMARY... A WEAK EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST NORTH OF BALTIMORE CORNER IN CAROLINE COUNTY MD AT APPROXIMATELY 327 PM ON APRIL 13, THEN MOVED IN AN EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR ABOUT 4.9 MILES BEFORE LIFTING JUST SOUTH OF HENDERSON MD. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED, BUT NUMEROUS TREES ALONG OR NEAR THE PATH WERE EITHER SNAPPED OR UPROOTED IN A SPORADIC PATTERN. THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH AT THE PEAK OF THE STORM.

Very similar looking.

Was a pretty ordinary storm with heavy rain and some gusty winds here. If there was rotation it was just NE of me. If you look closely you can see a turkey buzzard gliding out in front.

I was down at the end of my driveway taking a few shots of it approaching when the warning alert came across lol. Then a lightning bolt had be "running" back up the driveway in flip flops.

Here is the SPS on the gravity wave- Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 932 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>103-105-131545- Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks- Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 932 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 ...Brief period of damaging wind gusts possible late this morning... Several surface observations from central Pennsylvania have indicated a one-to-two hour period of wind gusts between 40 and 70 mph. These stronger winds have reached the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Wind gusts may reach 60 mph in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey through midday. Tree damage and power outages may occur with these stronger wind gusts.

Yup it feels legit humid out there now. Temp is up to 68 here.

Already had a power outage here for an hour +, and the wind is really gusting again now. It had calmed down a bit when the rain stopped earlier.

Probably right on the leading edge of the dry slot. It's going to be an interesting day with the trees and power lines.

This is technically round 2 now, as the actual warm front is lifting north over the area. Next we see how unstable we can get from around mid morning on. What develops at that point would be round 3, and carry severe potential, with the best chances of mixing some of that strong wind field aloft down to the surface. Winds are really picking up here now, with some heavy showers moving through.

Well, Mount Holly went with a fairly widespread High Wind Warning. I thought it might only be hoisted for the immediate coastal counties of DE and NJ.. ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with 50 to 60 mph gusts expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central, northern and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday that could result in even stronger wind gusts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

I have a feeling the watch here will end up being an advisory, with a warning along the coasts of DE and NJ, and also the western highlands.

High wind watch in effect here, Oh joy, haven't had enough of that. Monday looks interesting for sure. Latest AFD from Mt Holly on the potential: A significant storm system producing both strong and damaging winds and heavy rain is gearing up to affect the region from late Sunday night through Monday. Broad low pressure will continue to develop and organize over the Midwest Sunday evening as a deep upper trough digs through the western U.S. Meanwhile, out ahead of this low, a strong 70-80 kt LLJ at 925 mb and 80-90 kt winds at 850 mb will lift through the region Monday morning through Monday afternoon. In addition, a southerly pressure gradient will tighten over the region as the low rapidly intensifies, lowering from around 994 mb Sunday evening over the Midwest to around 980 mb by Monday evening. The NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate a low level inversion that would suggest that the strongest winds would remain aloft. However, with a tight gradient, and with heavy rain showers through the morning, there should be strong enough mixing. Generally expecting wind gusts of 40-50 mph in the southern Poconos, far NW New Jersey, and through the Lehigh Valley. For the rest of southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, the rest of New Jersey, and Delmarva, wind gusts will generally range from 50-60 mph, and there is the potential for even stronger winds right along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, possibly as high as 60-70 mph. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for most of the region, except for the far northern zones.

Significant areas with only 80-95% of normal over a 90 day period? that's some serious shiit. My yard is only at 115. I am beginning to worry.

Did it actually snow before Jan 21? Oh yeah, I somehow managed to pick up a half inch at some point.

12z 3km NAM is wholly unimpressive, but the 12z HRRR gets a modest line of convection going for N central MD later on.

Looks like a there is good amount of shear but pretty weak instability to establish/sustain updrafts. If the warm front clears early enough, and some places can get a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s, might be enough to kick off a few decent cells ahead of the cold front. This is all above my pay grade though lol.

Mid Atlantic Fail Index.

Here is one- although it is 4 letters. MAFI. It is almost always extremely positive.