CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Its snowing! Woop! Its snowing! Woop! Its snowing! Woop! Be back next hour with another update.
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27 with steady snow falling. Small to medium sized flakes. Probably a quarter inch. Looking pretty out there.
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32/20 here
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Updated Map
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Pretty darn good model agreement for S MD to get pummeled. Good for Wes.
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Yup. All the central and upper eastern shore counties aren't either. The accumulation forecast for my yard has 6" on the upper end. If I get the 6, I don't think it would look any different if my county was shaded in pink on a map instead of purple.
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It doesn't really matter if your area is in a warning or not. It wont change the outcome.
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They aren't going to change anything until late this afternoon is my guess. Snow wont get going here till evening, they have headlines out and advisories in place, and the forecast accumulation ranges on the upper end already cover warning criteria (6 or 7 inches depending on location).
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Looks like most of the region will be upgraded to WSW later. Potential for 6" exists for most places based on latest runs.
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Minus the 12k NAM (Not Happening!), guidance is in pretty darn good agreement.
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ICON and RGEM both look a lil NAMish
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My soil is starting to thaw. Its wet. Melts the snow from below.
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Looks like you might do pretty well there.
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3K NAM is actually in line with recent Euro runs. 4-6" for most, with 8-10" in VA south of DC, southern MD, over to S DE.
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I've upped my bar from 2" to 6.
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Thats 20"+ on the 12km east of I-95.
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Hr 42 death band over my yard lolz.
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Lol our yards look to get crushed even tho we flirt with the 850 mb 0 line as the coastal gets cranking.
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SREF!
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Its going to be a nice event here, but remember the vort is going to become increasingly stretched and gradually weaken is it moves east and encounters confluence. The local forecast offices seem to have a good handle on the high end potential with this. The coastal low is a bit of a wildcard but at this point it seems most of the area wont see much impact from that.
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Don't really want +height anomalies over the Maritimes, but the TPV is a wildcard with this potential event, and there is time for adjustments.
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Given where I live, I always prefer entrenched cold air.
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22/15 Let the radar panic and hallucinations begin.
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Mount Holly keeping a WWA for now, but mentioned a possible upgrade in the AFD for tonight. Also noticed they have a bit more of a 'wide range' than usual for accumulations in the text forecast, owing to the possible tight gradient and uncertainty with the coastal enhancement across this area. Calling for 2-6" here and 3-7" around Easton. Less NE. Seems reasonable.
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I expect it will probably cut back some, but not appreciably. At least that's my hope.
