CAPE

Am I missing something? Are we talking today's 12z GEFS? I haven't seen it. 6z run looked good to me.

Yeah it changed quite a bit from 12z yesterday to 0z, then 6z went all in on a west based block. The big EPO ridge idea is more modest now too. Gotta like that look in the AO/NAO space towards the end though.

Might as well

I concur. But other than the last batch of leaves, I may be done my outdoor projects by then. Been outside most of the weekend in this raw cold and wind.

He totally does. I am sure he is a smart dude, but 'hidden' in many of his technical posts you can tell he is a bit of a frustrated snow weenie from the south.

The 7-10 day thing is just my general monitoring window this winter. As I have said probably too many times now, not a fan of the weeklies etc. If I discuss them it's either a subtle troll post, or something like the other night when I posted a couple panels because Bob requested them.

It is what it is. I am not going to engage in hand wringing over LR stuff. We will see how things evolve over the next 10 days, then go from there. For now, I don't see any major red flags.

I am pretty much sticking to monitoring the 7-10 day period on the ensembles. It was just a mention based on you kinda going there in your post. We, nor the guidance, just can't know what's going to happen 15 days from now.

I hope my completely objective posts on the LR don't contribute to inducing early reapings.

At the end of the 0z EPS run, the look is a bit Lots of blues up top. Who knows how the pattern will roll going forward. A bit of a reshuffle/mild period would not be unexpected or overly concerning. Hopefully it's not a move towards what the weeklies/climate models have been advertising.

Yeah the 3k NAM and Euro have a thump of snow for NE PA. Pocono chase?

"Off run". Toss it and move on, quickly. Otherwise you are probably taking a step towards a visit to the reaper's 'new and improved' complex.

I have good understanding of physics on relatively small scale systems. Fundamentally, oceans are a huge heat sink- a truly high thermal inertia system. The relationship/interaction/forcing elements between large bodies of water and the atmosphere is obviously a complex one. I don't profess to have a deep understanding of the linkage/relationships between the atmosphere, currents, and warming/cooling of large bodies of water. That is super large scale stuff. It's like an electrical engineer claiming to have a profound understanding of large scale electrostatic energy- i.e. lightning. A totally different ballgame.

I don't think the Bering Sea actually freezes over. I think there is a strong current through the Strait, so its not likely to completely freeze either. That's my recollection from some climate/physical geography courses I took in college. I could be wrong, but I think the idea of walking across the Bering Strait is a misconception.

I hope it's not fun like that lol.

Speaking of Ravens, what a matchup tomorrow. Watson is great, but Lamar is just as good(maybe better), and plays on a better team with better coaching.. Ravens are the better team, and they are at home. Unless they come out flat, or get sloppy and turn the ball over, they should win this game.

Well the NAO certainly has had some problems keeping it up(the heights, that is) over recent winters. If I have to settle for EPO erection, I will take it. Have to take what you can get. @ravensrule will pop in any minute now- bat signal sent.

That's the exact timeframe I was referring to on the Euro op run in my post above. We keep seeing the good looks on guidance from around the 24th through the 30th. Potential is there, but timing and climo are the challenge.

Dec 1 is in range on the LR Globals, and it looks pretty cold. Frontal passage and cold pressing with suggestions of moisture lurking along the Gulf coast leading up to Thanksgiving on the Euro. Verbatim its a flat wave that would slide off the coast well south, with NS energy dropping down but well behind. More SS energy in the SW. Pattern overall looks quite active last week of Nov heading into Dec. I would feel pretty good if I lived in C/SNE.

6z has the coastal for the 24th, again implying some frozen on the northern edge. Nice setup at H5. other than ofc, November.

That was sort of a rhetorical question, lol. I Agree, but that is the fundamental issue with the weeklies, and why they are essentially useless(IMO) if you go out further than say 2 weeks beyond the end of the EPS run that they initialize on. Seems in many cases they will just continue the same general advertised look(which may very well be incorrect) for a week or 2, before possibly deviating for whatever reason. That was the context of the discussion - the advertised AO/NAO state at the end of the EPS run and looking at weeks 3 and 4 on the weeklies(first 2 weeks beyond the end of the eps run).

Most recent runs of the EPS are losing the +Heights in the NAO domain at the end. If over the next few cycles(or just the 0z run Monday AM) the +heights become more anomalous at the end of the run( NAO trending negative) what do ya think the weeklies will show on the Monday edition for early-mid Dec?

Here is the AO from the weeklies. Following the mean line, it simply continues the trend from neutral at the end of the EPS run into positive territory. NAO looks pretty much the same.

I guess i'm not. One reason is the tellies on the EPS runs lately have consistently shown both the AO and NAO trending to neutral as we get to Dec 1. So not too surprising the weeklies have both indices positive a week or 2 later. I also have little confidence that is correct, although playing the odds (given recent winters) it probably would not be a bad bet to make. If the currently advertised HL blocking does in fact verify per the current global ens guidance over the next 10 days, then I would expect the weeklies to adjust. My preference is to just take it 10 days or so at a time using the global ensembles, given the utter failure of the weeklies/climate models last winter. Using that metric, I like what I see going forward.