CAPE

Not gonna see much 50-50 low action with a +NAO. 50-50 highs are going to be more likely. The currently advertised LR h5 pattern is pretty much the inversion of what we want to see. Is it correct? Who knows.

Not pretty. The +AO/+NAO/+EPO trifecta provides literally no mechanism for cold air delivery into the mid latitudes. Hopefully it is a temporary state, or the guidance is currently overstating that look.

Yeah it builds the NAO ridge week 4-5, so who knows how real that is. Looks somewhat positive/neutral before that. Hopefully the EPO ridge gets into a better spot, because I still have my doubts about a sustained NA block, and as you said without it we fight the tendency for SE ridging given the advertised the EPO location verbatim.

Agreed. If the CFS actually has a clue, I would be ok with what it's advertising overall, with an EPO ridge and a mostly neutral AO/NAO look, and a piece of the TPV on our side, although not necessarily in an ideal spot. This look would be acceptable for mid-late Jan:

Beginning right around the new year continues to look potentially active, with at least somewhat colder air in place. 6z GEFS upped the game a bit. First week of Jan has what looks to be multiple waves tracking just to our south. Rolling through the p-type panels for that period is a fun exercise, and it is also reflected on the snowfall mean.

Glancing at the 0z means, looks like straight up blue across the top at h5 in the LR. +EPO/+AO/+NAO. The hints of a building EPO ridge from previous runs are gone for now(or delayed). Despite that, we manage at least seasonable cold, as advertised. Likely some IOD/MJO 'conflicts' still playing into the currently advertised pattern evolution beyond day 10.. The latest CFS weeklies look pretty nice weeks 2-6. Active look week 2, and general cold beyond that with a -EPO, and even hints of a -NAO week 5.

Yeah probably a good reason to keep our sights on the day 10 period- Interesting enough looks on the EPS and the GEFS for around the New Year, and beyond that is probably more muddled than usual.

I don't hate that look at all.

Its not a bad look in the LR on the mean, but realistically the h5 pattern won't look like that, as there is quite a bit of spread on the individual members. Verbatim the mean looks cold for much of the lower 48, but its likely due to disagreement among the members on location of the main features. We are not likely going to see low h5 height anomalies covering most of the Continental US as depicted towards the end of the run.

I have been busy having fun and not paying a lot of attention to the LR big picture the past few days(a good thing) but there is a lot of good stuff happening here.

12/16: 0.1" Total: 0.6"

Given the streak my yard is on- failing every way imaginable last winter- it is pretty sad.

12/11: 0.5"

bupkis

I just made a post, and the thread showed that I made the most recent post, but its not showing up. Something is effed up.

Gotta do what ya gotta do. I do all kinds of odd stuff here lol. I have no neighbors tho which is nice. One thing about the BB, the stuff is really green when it matures, and ofc does well in the shade.

@frd Just took this pic of the new grass. Not bad considering I had to keep it going for 7 weeks in a drought. I should have taken a before photo 8 weeks ago. It was sad- burnt grass/thatch, dirt, and clover lol.

Finally got around to actually building a firepit to go with the surround I did back in the Spring. I built a couple planter boxes to put trees in, and I will make a bench once I figure out exactly what I want.

That is a great graphic by Don. Yeah the big storm in 2016 had the dry slot which seemed to be missed by forecasters. This storm was sort of a 2 part deal, and that is always tricky. Part one worked out well here- I was thinking 5-6 and I ended up a bit over 5. Yesterday afternoon/evening was a complete whiff, and even my updated forecast at 330 pm was still calling for 2-4", but not a flake fell.

I missed all the part 2 action yesterday here. Poorly modeled. All guidance, including the 12z Euro had around 0.4 here with the coastal ccb. By the time the UL energy and the coastal congealed, it was all to my SE. Betwixt and between. I did get 5.2" from part one. Congrats to all who got the part 2 'surprise'. Amazing pics. Radar was frustrating to watch from here though lol.

Just noticed my forecast has been updated. Now 3-5" today and 1-2 tonight. Not sure about that, although some of the 'today's snow' would have already fallen I guess? Strange way to do a noon update to a forecast if that's the case.

Light snow still falling. I went out and shoveled while there is a bit of a lull. 4.8" Love the long duration of the event. Perpetual snow. The Upper energy and coastal development might offer some dynamics that the first part of the storm has lacked. Should be some impressive banding.

4.5" here. Been on the edge of heavier stuff to my south for a while, but finally into some 30 dbz stuff now.

Yeah. 3k shootin' some heroin now too.

If you are in Easton I wouldn't worry at all. Closer to the coast for sure. Eastern Sussex etc will likely mix or change to rain for a while.