CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Front end fail, and again too warm at the surface for any frozen with the upper low. Idk if that can trend stronger/colder. Generate its own cold air?
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@showmethesnow Here is temp and height data from the EURO. Goes out 10 days and includes 150 mb level. https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/
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That's my general takeaway yes. I was looking for some updated QBO data but this would seem to correlate with whats happening at 10-30 mb level, re- weaker zonal wind propagating downward.
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This is pretty interesting. The tercile-category anomaly of the lower-stratospheric polar vortex, defined by the 100 hPa 60°N zonal-mean zonal wind, has been used as a diagnostic for the behaviour in the ‘coupling layer’ between the stratosphere and troposphere. https://simonleewx.com/polar-vortex-forecasts/
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Hopefully the CFS is as crappy a model as we all believe it to be, lol.
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This has always looked like a bit of a longshot. I was never really enamoured with the setup esp given it's early Dec, but certainly worth tracking. What else we gunna do?
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6z GFS develops a nice batch of precip with the upper low, but pretty toasty at the surface so its rain. The air mass is marginal at best even in the wake of the coastal. Ofc sometimes magic can happen under an upper low if its strong enough and we get intense precip rates. Not sure it's happening with this one. Climo and really no cold air is tough to overcome.
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#faith
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I have seen that before. Pretty good presentation.
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Agree with this. I probably misinterpreted your post. I thought you were suggesting a 50-50 vortex (transient or otherwise) was more important than having a -AO and or -NAO. A -NAO/50-50 combo is absolutely the ULTIMATE block imo to force a favorable storm track for MA snow events.
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Yeah that's my point- vortices rotating through the 50-50 region absent a NA block are thread the needle deals. I will take that over having higher heights in that region every time though for sure. But no way in hell I believe that is the ultimate/ better or equivalent to having a sustained -AO/NAO.
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A 50-50 low really goes hand in hand with a -NAO though. Without the block, a vortex in the 50-50 region is mostly a transient feature, which is ok, but not the same as having a low trapped under a legit blocking ridge in the NA.
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Skura is out for the season for the Ravens after last night's knee injury. Pretty big blow. Mekari(who?) filled in and played well last night but he had no regular game action at center since HS before that. Next man up, but this is less than ideal given the continuity and success the Ravens have enjoyed on the OL this year.
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Could be mine too, but I suppose it is really the @leesburg 04 storm.
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I have been liking this period for a while. The storm after the storm everyone is focusing on.
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Yeah I miss a good clipper. They can be fun, are pretty simple, but can be a challenge to get one to track to our south. Been few and far between in recent winters. If this winter ends up being ENSO neutral and EPO ridge dominant we could see a legit clipper or 2 track underneath with some decent coastal enhancement.
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Still liking the GFS getting my yard in on some deform band action with the coastal.
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I don't believe this is correct. To the best of my knowledge each model run is discrete, based on a set of initial conditions and executed from that point, independent of any previous model cycles. Someone can correct me if i am wrong.
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HH GFS will probably pull you in.
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I would feel pretty good if I lived in NE PA, NNJ, into SNE right now. The GFS scenario is obv not impossible, but seems pretty unlikely to me. CMC looks more realistic.
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Quite a bit further south with the coastal than previous runs on the mean. Might get in on a little deform action if the trends continue.
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They might. Houston recovered. Pretty equal teams. Rams weren't the same at the end of last season, and that carried into this one. Still pretty talented.
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So much snow without even a random sleet pellet.
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Ravens can win up there even if they do. When is the last close game they played? I've forgotten lol.
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I'm bored with snow now.
