CAPE

Here is the SPS on the gravity wave- Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 932 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>103-105-131545- Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks- Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 932 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 ...Brief period of damaging wind gusts possible late this morning... Several surface observations from central Pennsylvania have indicated a one-to-two hour period of wind gusts between 40 and 70 mph. These stronger winds have reached the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Wind gusts may reach 60 mph in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey through midday. Tree damage and power outages may occur with these stronger wind gusts.

Yup it feels legit humid out there now. Temp is up to 68 here.

Already had a power outage here for an hour +, and the wind is really gusting again now. It had calmed down a bit when the rain stopped earlier.

Probably right on the leading edge of the dry slot. It's going to be an interesting day with the trees and power lines.

This is technically round 2 now, as the actual warm front is lifting north over the area. Next we see how unstable we can get from around mid morning on. What develops at that point would be round 3, and carry severe potential, with the best chances of mixing some of that strong wind field aloft down to the surface. Winds are really picking up here now, with some heavy showers moving through.

Well, Mount Holly went with a fairly widespread High Wind Warning. I thought it might only be hoisted for the immediate coastal counties of DE and NJ.. ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with 50 to 60 mph gusts expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central, northern and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday that could result in even stronger wind gusts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

I have a feeling the watch here will end up being an advisory, with a warning along the coasts of DE and NJ, and also the western highlands.

High wind watch in effect here, Oh joy, haven't had enough of that. Monday looks interesting for sure. Latest AFD from Mt Holly on the potential: A significant storm system producing both strong and damaging winds and heavy rain is gearing up to affect the region from late Sunday night through Monday. Broad low pressure will continue to develop and organize over the Midwest Sunday evening as a deep upper trough digs through the western U.S. Meanwhile, out ahead of this low, a strong 70-80 kt LLJ at 925 mb and 80-90 kt winds at 850 mb will lift through the region Monday morning through Monday afternoon. In addition, a southerly pressure gradient will tighten over the region as the low rapidly intensifies, lowering from around 994 mb Sunday evening over the Midwest to around 980 mb by Monday evening. The NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate a low level inversion that would suggest that the strongest winds would remain aloft. However, with a tight gradient, and with heavy rain showers through the morning, there should be strong enough mixing. Generally expecting wind gusts of 40-50 mph in the southern Poconos, far NW New Jersey, and through the Lehigh Valley. For the rest of southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, the rest of New Jersey, and Delmarva, wind gusts will generally range from 50-60 mph, and there is the potential for even stronger winds right along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, possibly as high as 60-70 mph. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for most of the region, except for the far northern zones.

There is no collective "we" when it comes to this.

The first 'phase' will be relaxation of some of the restrictions, and it will occur state by state. Its not like Trump is just going to say, OK we all open for business now! Some of the red state governors may go with that, but it wont happen that way in most states. In MD, Hogan will make the call as to when it is prudent to remove the stay at home order, and when to allow restaurants, etc to reopen.

Ever been on there? Little to no intellectually honest discourse takes place lol. Even if you 3 attempted to do it, you would be trolled mercilessly.

I did see a few mins of graupel here yesterday.

If we keep this going maybe we can cool the oceans and it might snow again.

Not sure that will ever happen on a large scale, for a variety of mostly obvious reasons.

This is the one you want.

Imagine if we had actually been prepared for a pandemic. An efficient mechanism to rapidly produce effective test kits with fast results, swabs, masks, ventilators, a process in place for effective contact tracing. Perhaps there would have been no widespread stay at home orders, and minimal shutting down of businesses. Maybe it all could be coordinated by a well funded Pandemic Response Team at the Fed level. All far fetched though. What country would do that?

Good move. Too bad I captured it.

I think you have just been added to the Phin shiithead list.

They are already vectors for plenty of other nasty shiit. COVID would probably be mild by comparison. I have to larvicide this time every year anyway. If I hit it at the right time(s) I wont see more than a few skeeters here and there through summer. It becomes intolerable by mid May if I don't. My mosquitoes are all home grown.

it wont be needed to get back to some semblance of normalcy, but the modified "behaviors" will need to continue. I think most people will abide by it because of some residual fear and simply being used to doing it. I will be ready to roll. I am concerned about how long the travel restrictions will be maintained though. June - August is my time to travel. Also have friends scheduled to come here from across the pond in a couple months.

lol Notice no one said anything about it but him. No reason for him to swoop in and jump on his soapbox. It was the libtards who ran Mitch off the board ya know!!!

Yeah, I think we got it. Like the first 9 times you posted this. And..most of us here already knew and acknowledged all this, without you saying it ad nauseam. Got anything else?

Looks like baseball season will start soon, just not here. Might be a preview of how things will go here later in summer, assuming things progress according to the latest model projections. Can the U.S. return to sports soon? South Korea might offer clues https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28998585/can-us-return-sports-soon-south-korea-clues

Wow that is quite a bit different. Lets hope this is how it plays out in reality.

Talbot county recorded the first COVID death over the weekend.