CAPE
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That MD/DE map has some flaws in it. While interior and upper portions of the Delmarva away from the coast(and not close to either bay) tend to get more snow locally- 18" or so is about right- places right along the coast are too high on that map. More like 10-12" along the immediate coast, including Lewes. Also that area in NE MD near the bay is exaggerated way too low imo. Easton does not average more snow than Elkton.
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Roses are red. violets are blue There is no such thing as normal Especially when it comes to you
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Get creative psu. You owe us a poem. In an attempt to make yet another pointless Tenman thread epic, it has been hijacked. We are generally keeping the "what went wrong" theme however.
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Can you put this in the form of a poem? Thanks!
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Stratospheric vortex, consolidated Tightly wound ball of doom Weather weenies migrate to the panic room Bring it to an end The limitless winter gloom
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This is true, but let me help you with the rhyming part... Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong Move north where winters are cold and long Without lots of luck, winters here are brief, and suck
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For snow, negative AO is number one In absence, an EPO ridge may mitigate Otherwise DCA is done
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You are in a groove.
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Poetry section starts here. Go!
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You answered it all in your op. No one knows. It's in the hands of god. NWP is useless hocus-pocus. end thread/
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Another awful Tenman thread. Poetry?
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Just to expand the futility area a bit, Philly is at 0.3". Their worst snowfall season was 1972-73, recording a trace. As of now, this winter would rank second, just ahead of 1997-98, with 0.8".
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Latest EPS forecast could very well be "wrong". Thing is, I simply made a post stating what it is currently depicting, and that it wasn't good. Never claimed it was going to verify. No hitching of wagons. Now straighten your panties- they be all bunched up.
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C'mon. A met as experienced as murky knows the CFS nails these indices far more often than the EPS. CFS is literally a model of consistency. Almost always verifies. Hardly ever vacillates.
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No need. He is a pompous azz and he isn't fooling anyone here. LOL 30 year met.
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Might not work out. Who is doing the hitching here? Apparently you love the advertised EPS h5 look- at least enough to troll PSU.
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Latest EPS MJO forecast in the LR- after briefly getting into phase 7, wave dies out then looks to re-emerge in phase 5/6. That wont help much.
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You claim you are a met right? Then you understand climo. NE doesn't need all the stars aligned to get a good result.
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Check this out. Good overall presentation on NAM/ENSO/NAO and solar activity, and specifically addresses the solar/NAO correlation. Probably not what many would expect over the long term. http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
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-(-NAO)
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I took a peek this morning and the GEFS and EPS both have the AO trending towards neutral, and the NAO going slightly negative. Nothing is locked in up top though, and no signs of a sustained -AO or -NAO. Look at h5 on the 6z GEFS at the end, and the TPV is over Baffin with a ++NAO look.
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12z GEFS yesterday had an impressive signal for snow for the 25th-30th period. Since then it has deteriorated significantly. The general pattern being advertised is pretty decent overall, but there are little "flaws" showing that shift around between model cycles.
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All these maps do is remind me that I live 150 miles too far south for snow 90% of the time.
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Schreck et al.
