CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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No need. He is a pompous azz and he isn't fooling anyone here. LOL 30 year met.
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Might not work out. Who is doing the hitching here? Apparently you love the advertised EPS h5 look- at least enough to troll PSU.
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Latest EPS MJO forecast in the LR- after briefly getting into phase 7, wave dies out then looks to re-emerge in phase 5/6. That wont help much.
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You claim you are a met right? Then you understand climo. NE doesn't need all the stars aligned to get a good result.
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Check this out. Good overall presentation on NAM/ENSO/NAO and solar activity, and specifically addresses the solar/NAO correlation. Probably not what many would expect over the long term. http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
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-(-NAO)
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I took a peek this morning and the GEFS and EPS both have the AO trending towards neutral, and the NAO going slightly negative. Nothing is locked in up top though, and no signs of a sustained -AO or -NAO. Look at h5 on the 6z GEFS at the end, and the TPV is over Baffin with a ++NAO look.
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12z GEFS yesterday had an impressive signal for snow for the 25th-30th period. Since then it has deteriorated significantly. The general pattern being advertised is pretty decent overall, but there are little "flaws" showing that shift around between model cycles.
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All these maps do is remind me that I live 150 miles too far south for snow 90% of the time.
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Schreck et al.
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Pretty significant improvement on the 12z GEFS for the 25-30th window.
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Higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes rather than lower heights(ideal) is the biggest issue with this threat at as depicted at range. The track is about perfect, and everything else is decent enough, and there is plenty of time for features to get tweaked a bit, hopefully in the favorable direction.
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I hear ya. At this point I am just going to watch and see how the new long wave pattern actually establishes beyond this weekend. Hopefully we start to see more hits pop up on future runs. I think the +heights in central Canada will build further NW going forward. Can start to see that occurring towards the end of the 0z GEFS run.
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We are talking about means at range dude. The overriding theme on all guidance, including the CFS, is the improvement on the PAC side with the PNA and the EPO going forward. As you know, classically good looks that show up at D15 rarely look the same on a mean when that gets inside D10.
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More likely with the pattern change barely underway for this coming weekend. There is a bit of a signal for that period, although it could be colder. Plenty of time.
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This looks like a 'much better pattern' than the garbage one we have had the past 2+ weeks to me, and pretty much matches what has been advertised across guidance lately.. We will have to wait and see if the upcoming period produces any significant snow, but this is an h5 look that could get it done.
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This is generally my feeling. Some say bring the qpf and take their chances on cold. Ofc this is completely an IMBY game, and if ya live on the coastal plain, having an antecedent cold air mass in place is usually key to getting a legit snow event.
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Luckily the GFS depiction of the baroclinic zone being in the vicinity of Bermuda is probably not correct lol.
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Euro says It might be time for a beach chase next week.
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Just another op run at range but nice to continue to see looks like this one. Verbatim it gives us some snow from a clipper. Roll that forward and it might be snowing in the SE.
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Keep an eye on the secondary coastal development. 0z GEFS is pretty aggressive with this feature, and a bit further south than the EPS. Could extend wintry precip by keeping the lower levels colder, esp for interior/northern areas.
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This is pretty happy hour-ish.
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I noticed that. The classic h5 look period is right where we want it at this juncture though on the means.
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I am considering it. NE PA looks like a decent spot and isn't too far.
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Yeah HH not so happy. Another op run down. Next.
