CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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@frd
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The general idea is there. It absolutely will come down to timing, and as we know, odds are better these things don't work out many more times than they do.
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And this..
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I actually like the weather we have had for the last month. Persistently chilly, no brutal cold, but not warm either. Not a snow pattern, and pretty close to a shutout in reality(esp for the coastal plain) yet it feels like it should for this time of year. I would honestly take this for the rest of the winter vs. a torchy pattern.
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I am not big on snow maps, but it does indicate that the majority of members are hinting at an event(or 2) with some frozen potential in the MA.
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In this type of pattern the best case scenario is a 1-3/2-4 deal from a modest wave sliding underneath. Anything too amplified is going to take a west track, and ends up mostly rain for I-95 and east, esp in mid December.
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I liked what I saw on the 0z GEFS. More than one opportunity in this period-
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They "fixed" that a couple runs ago.
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The December CanSIPS is out, and it's telling Ji he should cancel winter.
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Its a progressive pattern with no NA blocking. None. There is going to be cold air around, and some action in the southern jet. With all the moving pieces its going to come down to timing and luck. Imo, we need to root for something like the 0z GFS/GEFS is depicting. eta- what i am rooting for in this type of pattern would likely give your area bupkis.
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bupkis
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Ground was damp here so it must have drizzled.
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This is what I said on the first post I made about the potential. Given the advertised set up, the cold might hang in long enough for some frozen out your way, but not a look I get too excited over. Yoda was having some parsing issues last night.
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I haven't looked at the mean lately, but clearly whatever issue they were having still exists. When i noticed it, it was only with the GEFS and not the EPS.
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lol ok Yoda.
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Oh Yoda...
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Its not an awful look. Not even close to textbook tho. A long way to go and plenty of time for changes- and I am not trying to be a Deb lol- but this is a cutter verbatim on the EPS ens mean. Just in a wait and see mode for me. At this point my guess is this period is a bit too soon for a legit frozen threat for our region.
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But wait, what has become of the textbook look for us? It's not happening now?
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lol Yoder. Good guy despite his propensity to be dense.
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It's not textbook for "us" dude. It's a pretty decent look on the ensembles. And the timeframe is approaching mid Dec. You can go ahead and out if you like. I will reserve judgment. Odds are pretty good we will see an entirely different depiction by 12z tomorrow.
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Thank you! Defo happy now sipping on this high gravity IPA
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Thanks for sharing. Everyone has an opinion, and he seems to know his stuff. That being said, no one truly knows. Ever. Op runs end up wrong a lot in the LR. Ens runs are marginally better. I am content to just sit back and see how things roll going forward. It is what it is, and the pattern evolution seems particularly volatile now, probably a bit more so than normal. Simply put, we just cannot know.
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It could end up some sort of messy front end thump deal for western areas. Not bad for favored locations, but at this juncture the look on the ensembles gets a meh from me. Lets see how it evolves over the next several days. Long way to go.
