CAPE

More amped than guidance has suggested seems to have been the tendency this winter. In general models want the kill it prematurely. Of course now that most guidance is advertising a collapse into COD just as it heads into the good phases, it probably happens.

Read the posts above. Its just more Twitter "expert" stuff. Not anything I would truly put any stock in. Was funny I saw your post just as I was reading that lol.

I just found some really crappy news about where things might be going for week 3. I'll not post that.

Fronto! Rates! lol I have never been too interested in this beyond a quick coating. My official forecast is for an inch. If that verifies I would be thrilled.

@nw baltimore wx @mattie g Since you guys are the beer brewing experts here (and anyone else who wants to chime in feel free): I have a friend who is studying Nutritional Science, and has chosen (of all things), beer sensory analysis for his dissertation. He has to brew the beer(all equipment provided) then train a panel and conduct controlled sensory analysis of the beer. He has chosen IPA as the beer style. He needs to buy all ingredients, probably in the form of a kit. The important part is he has to make 6 batches, each using a different yeast strain, with everything else remaining the same. So the challenging part is choosing 6 different yeasts that will impart noticeably different characteristics, but still produce a drinkable IPA. Any suggestion on an IPA kit(nice drinkable fruity/hoppy one for novice beer drinkers), and then of course 6 different yeast varieties that will "work" well with that particular beer kit? Or you guys can just pass along some of your secret recipes lol. Thanks!

This is where I am/have been. I keep saying this, but in order for me to believe the advertised -NAO on the GEFS/CFS is legit, I need to see the EPS be a little more enthusiastic about the idea.

I bet they look great- they will have an epic look for late Feb now, the same look they had for early Feb a couple weeks ago.

Yes for sure but gefs has a mega mjo going into phase 8. Eps still sucks but made strides imo EPS is incrementally improving. It still shows weaker blocking though, and that wont get it done. If it's currently advertised look/progression is correct, we waste more prime snow climo days. I will hug the GEFS for now.

GEFS is more encouraging than the EPS. Looks better out west and the stronger blocking is getting it done- starting to see lower heights in the east towards the end of the run.

Nina -----> -PNA -PNA -----> Nina -PNA <-----> Nina

I did notice that. I made a post this morning after the 0z run regarding disagreement among the members, with some showing cold pressing into our region by late in the run. Same with the 12z run, but even more so. You can see the indication of a 50-50 low under the +heights over Greenland. I suspect this will be a pretty brief warm up, but for now it seems likely there will be one, maybe lasting 4-5 days. Overall though the EPS isn't advertising the really good west-based blocking we are seeing on the GEFS and CFS. Its there, just not as impressive. I will feel more confident a legit -NAO is on the way when the EPS throws up some of those looks.

No argument on that here. I always want a -NAO, but when the pattern is flawed on the PAC side, it becomes vital. Problem is- it is often advertised and rarely materializes, outside of the bootleg/transient variety. Thus far we have not seen the epic blocking looks on the EPS that we see on the GEFS. CFS, and even the EPS weeklies. My gut says the bad look that the EPS is currently advertising will be transient. I doubt the PAC is about to go completely to crap for the long term, but I sure would love to see a few runs where the EPS goes a little nuts with the -NAO like some other guidance.

This is what I have been watching with the GEFS depiction- the similarity to the week 2 CFS, and how it progresses to week 3, which is the transition to the really good h5 look. Both have been gung-ho with advertising a west based block. Need the EPS to start budging though. Things looked pretty good on the EPS a few days ago when that piece of the PV retrograded to AK and then towards the Aleutians. Looked like a temporary reshuffle, but that mother just kept on going and looks like it wants to park in the Arctic. GEFS has it in the same general position, but manages a better AK ridge position/orientation, and of course the NA blocking is much stronger (on most runs) than the EPS. If you look at some of the previous GEFS runs that have weaker NA blocking though, the overall look leans more towards what the EPS is advertising. The EPS is consistently showing a weaker -NAO, which is a big reason the general look is crappier, with more prominent ridging in the east.

Hopefully it isn't right, but the EPS sure wants to lock in a stable pattern with a mean W US trough/ E US ridge from day 8 onward. That would likely waste a big chunk of our prime snow climo, and we have already done enough of that. eta- the advertised "-NAO " on the EPS is absolute weak sauce. Useless.

We had this discussion in banter yesterday. Check it out!

I have real doubts that the EPS advertised LR look will have any staying power, if it in fact happens at all. The analysis I was able to do on the 0z run suggest quite a bit of spread among the members beyond day 12, while D9-12 there is pretty good agreement for a mild period. Next few runs will be interesting. We probably wont get a perfect EPAC though- the ridge should return out west, but probably with the axis a tad too far west. I am usually very cautious in buying modeled -NAO, but there has been some persistence in the guidance. CFS has been bullish on big NA blocking for many runs, and the GFS/GEFS has also consistently advertised stout west-based blocking, although recent runs are not as impressive. The really smart folks also seem to be remaining confident about the prospects, so that should also count for something. I guess I'm cautiously optimistic on the NAO.

Yup. That was mid Feb, and it got winter going that year. I ended up with 3 here. That was a crazy/fun event.

I am gonna keep hugging the CFS until further notice. It has the one "bad" week, or reshuffle, but it continues to show major west based blocking developing and persisting through the run(week 6). Negative AO/NAO plus it develops a big ridge out west, and even though the axis is a bit further west than ideal, the monster block would allow for favorable storm tracks.

It's like your place, inverted.

I am going to do that for the most part. Gonna go outside and work on some unfinished projects. If the winter does go in the crapper, I will get all my typical "spring" chores done on the nicer days, so I can just stay in the house during Spring mosquito season, which looks like it will be horrific. Although since we don't have a Nino, maybe we get a dry pattern for a couple months.

Yeah difficult to make lemonade out of that. Seems to be advertising a pretty stable h5 look for now. I dug a bit to see if there is any 'conflict' among the members- I looked at the temp anomalies/probabilities on WB. Pretty unanimous that days 9-12 are going to be very mild. Beyond that there is some spread as to how mild things remain in the east- some indication of cold pressing eastward towards the end of the run, but the cold anomalies are clearly out west on most members, which aligns with the advertised mean western trough. At this point I guess we can hope the model is 'missing' something, maybe MJO or SOI related, and the crap look will become more muted in future runs, but there is pretty clearly going to be a warmish period of some duration. GEFS is indicating this as well, although it does not keep the mean trough in the western US as long and improves somewhat towards day 15. It has lost the great looking block of a few runs ago though(surprise). Had that verified it would have kept heights lower in the east, but now it just has the look of full latitude h5 ridging with less impressive +heights in the NAO domain. That wont get it done.

If the EPS is to be believed D9-15 would be pretty mild for the eastern half of the country. Looks like it would continue beyond that for a time. We shall see. Hopefully its just more MJO messing up the model mojo.

CFS for week 2 looks very similar to the 12z GEFS panel(s) posted above for the same period. Week 3 looks like this, and week 4 might be even better. That general look sticks through week 6, the end of the run. CFS has been very consistent lately with its h5 depiction.

Ha I just posted that one too. Compare it to 6z- huge difference in the height fields over the eastern US. If there is to be a so-called bad period, this would mitigate it.

Monster block is getting it done this run.