CAPE

Maybe 3-4" in S DE if you buy some of the latest guidance.

@frd will like the 12z RGEM.

I love the show, and I never read the comics or dug into any of the background of the story. Just been watching it, kinda lost at times, but knowing that pieces were coming together. And it's so well done it has been interesting to watch how all these characters and plots in different times and places are fitting together.

Probably. My gut says there will be 2 maximas for snow potential- the usual places NW of the cities, and another along the coast- probably east of me. In between, it might end up being more spotty.

Yes.

You and me both. I have been doing my best to rile up the s On another topic- Watchmen- Did you see the most recent ep? I was like, damn. Some serious reveal happening.

WSW shall be hoisted by 3pm!

At the risk of sounding weenie-ish myself, I like seeing the guidance depicting the heavy snow bands just to my east. Its a tricky set up for sure, and one I think is truly anafrontal, as it seems like the front will be through as the final impulse moves in and precip will be falling into cold air- although right at the surface it will be a bit warmish to start. It didn't always look like this would be the case(precip behind the cold front), but it seems looking at latest guidance it is evolving that way.

Looks to me like the cold is in place as the last piece of energy rides up. Front looks to lie in the SE parts of the region right along the coast- perhaps this is part of the reason we are seeing some guidance shifting the heavier snow chances towards DE and NJ.

Someone is gonna get a thump of snow with this. Not going to clog up this thread with (more) graphics, but the upper jet configuration is favorable over the region and there is going to be an area of forcing at 700 mb with banding/potential quick shot of heavier snow. Question is where exactly it occurs.

GFS looks pretty similar re the snowfall map, but the heavier snow is just north of our region a bit further up into PA. Given the advertised pattern there is a ton of potential, and yeah at this range there are just a few options on how this evolves. It's a pretty classic advertised look up top for a MA winter storm, maybe for as far south as NC. Long way to go ofc.

0z GEFS looks remarkably similar for a potential event that is a week+ out.

MSLP anomaly and precip panels still look enticing. This is the third straight run on the EPS with a pretty strong storm signal for this period.

0z EPS continues to advertise a potential coastal storm towards mid next week. This is a pretty classic looking set up at h5.

They always look ambiguous. One reason why I find them mostly useless. Its pretty much up for interpretation for those who insist on "seeing" something telling there. Pretty subjective.

Well he is usually wrong no matter what he forecasts DW. He will take credit regardless.

Good thing you pop in at these critical times to remind us all of the elements that often lead us to failure.

Decent discussion from Mount Holly- Tuesday night the surface cold front will be well off the coast with not much in the way of coverage initially expected. Late Tuesday night into very early Wednesday the 700/600 MB thermal gradient will begin to tighten as the shortwave approaches. Latest GFS and NAM FGEN fields are fairly impressive with lift increasing starting over Maryland and spreading northeast. The NAM and the other high res models are depicting this as precipitation spreading over the area rather rapidly Wednesday morning. The NAM is slightly further south with the strongest forcing for ascent compared to the GFS and ECMWF, but overall agreement is not too bad. The main concern will be precipitation type issues. Over the southern Poconos thermal profiles support all snow for the event, but the strongest FGEN signal remains just southeast of this area. The best forcing for ascent is usually towards the warm side of the FGEN band, which would favor limiting snowfall totals here. Towards the I-95 corridor the best chance of precipitation exists, but thermal profiles initially support rain. Both the NAM and GFS show initially rain changing over to a rain/snow mix and then finally all snow. NAM forecast soundings indicate slightly stronger 700/800 mb winds and implied WAA. A brief transition to sleet is indicated via the NAM, but the most likely scenario appears to be rain/snow to snow as max temperatures aloft on the NAM seem to warm compared to the GFS and ECMWF. The most likely snowfall totals across the area are about 1 to 2" with slightly higher totals over the northwestern zones. The change over to snow and subsequent totals will be highly sensitive to the thermal profile and QPF footprint though.

This is not the gfs. It's the broken fv3. Gfs would never do this Old GFS only did this at hour 384.

^FWIW. Would make most in this region happy if half that verified.

Chis 'Mad Dog' Russo said its a great deal. So it must be.

I kinda liked the 18z 3k NAM.

That is possible yes.

He makes beer and drinks beer. I only drink beer.

Agreed. Watch the bad PAC look get muted as we get closer. Seeing it already. Meanwhile, seeing suggestions of higher heights building in the NA.