CAPE

A raging +AO is almost certain death to snow chances around here. If we end up with sustained +heights in the EPO/WPO space, it would be difficult for the AO to be severely positive though. A neutral to somewhat +AO is probably what we are looking at going forward.

I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. Last 2 runs of the GEFS don't look quite as good in the HL region as the 18z h5 map I posted last night, but still acceptable. If you look at the teleconnections, interestingly the most recent runs of the EPS and GEFS both have the AO trending very close to neutral by day 15. Not sure if that works out, but if the AO is going to have a tendency to be in the positive phase, we need the EPO ridge to be as advertised on recent runs(strength and position) and become a sustained feature going forward.

So now the gefs looks better than the eps haha..its like a tennis match Yeah and if that HL look is legit, there will be a series of cold fronts moving through and the tendency for eastern ridging will be replaced by a mean trough.

Looking better and better up top. TPV displaced southward and ridging building over GL. Got the EPO ridge going a bit bonkers too.

Judah never predicts winter will end. He is busy figuring out another creative way to take credit in case things do flip, despite his theory failing yet again.

The weeklies from yesterday might provide a hint as to where we go going forward. If you haven't taken a peak, it looks familiar.

Prior to today's 12z run(which ji seemed to suddenly approve of lol), the EPS was showing incremental improvement in the Pacific. PNA has been trending towards neutral. Aligns with the latest MJO forecasts, taking the MC wave into the COD after briefly moving into phase 6. Should it reemerge, it looks like it would be in 7,8. or 1. In contrast, GEFS has been taking a high amplitude wave into phase 6. I guess what I am saying is, there are signs of a less hostile PAC, particularly on the EPS. Absolutely want the HL blocking, but hopefully it wont have to be the sole savior for winter.

If -ao is our best indicie for snow.... PV becomes elongated in the LR on the GEFS, and maybe the building upper ridge near Scandinavia can further perturb it. QBO continues to drop and that should correlate to a weaker PV. We shall see.

Not a thing of beauty or anything but EPS showing continued improvement in the Pac. PNA trending towards neutral in the LR, mean trough is further east, and the SE ridge is flatter/suppressed. Still has +heights building around Scandinavia, but not making much progress towards GL yet.

Graphically:

EPS has been ever so slowly trending towards a neutral, and possibly a +PNA over recent runs. Good sign.

There is still a weak signal for something around the 17th on the GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS. Something to keep an eye on, as beyond the next few days there probably wont be much winter weather to be tracked for a while.

Towards D15, the latest EPS and GEPS are still showing signs of slight improvement on the Pac side, especially the EPS, and have +heights from Scandinavia building into GL, the GEPS in particular. GEFS looks more bleak, and suggests we have a long, long way to go.

I wouldn't know...

C'mon dude, it is clear you are on the payroll of 007. No worries. You aren't the only one.

There have been some hints of improvement on the PAC side for the fist time in a while. Latest MJO forecasts suggest tropical convection may actually progress off of the MC, and there are subtle signs of improvement in the central/eastern PAC on the EPS and the GEPS, including an increase in the PNA beyond D10. Might be noise. We should know in a few days, lol.

The EPS looks similar but the trend towards neutral is at a slightly lower rate. GEFS shows a slight increase then levels off.

So I am not hallucinating. lol. I have a feeling the EPS tellies are going to have the PNA rising towards or above -2!

I see some slight improvement in the PAC on the 12z EPS at the end. Pac ridge is weaker, slightly further east, and the trough seems to be on the move east. Or maybe I am hallucinating.

One of you NW of the fall line people should start a thread.

12z GEFS continues to have a modest signal for something frozen between the 16th and 18th with a cold front that temporarily knocks down the SE ridge. We can track this until it disappears lol. Otherwise it's wall to wall SE ridge and mild, and still hints of higher h5 heights building towards GL from Scand at the end of the run.

Prime window runs from mid Jan to mid Feb historically. Some of our bigger snows have occurred mid to late Feb, and once in a while early March. Lately March has become more of a winter month.

Some wet flakes and maybe a coating would be nice, esp given the advertised pattern over the next couple weeks. I should head to the western highlands. Looks like some decent winter out there over the next few days. Will be hard to come by in the very near future.

That looks a little better than yesterday's forecast, which had it weakening just as it was moving into phase 6, then into the COD. Looked like from there it might loop and flare up right near the MC again. Hopefully the strength and forward momentum will take it into phase 7 before it weakens.