CAPE

Gus will do fine if he gets the majority of the carries. He has proven himself, is a great downhill runner and has a burst in the second level. Ingram beings a certain mentality and has great initial explosiveness. He runs angry.

Latest indications don't look good for Ingram playing this week. Gus the bus will need to carry the load.

TBD.

au contraire. I am very stable and level headed. Despite living in a place that blows for snow chances, I track on, contributing for the greater good.

Yeah this is an interesting question. I think most people have an idea or perception of what is favorable for winter weather- for most here that means legit snow chances- and ofc what is considered favorable varies based on specific location within our region, as factors like physical topography/proximity to water/UHI lead to disparate local climates over relatively short distances.

Other more established(knowledgeable) posters have said the same thing. @WxUSAF comes to mind. Mersky seems to have a need to brag about "predicting" something he likely read multiple times elsewhere.

I will answer this wrt occurrences in the troposphere, because thats what we are concerned with as it directly impacts sensible weather. It's pretty common during winter for vortices to shed off and rotate southward in the troposphere, especially when a ridge builds up into the HL region. You can see this on the 6z GFS panel that Ralph posted with that big anticyclone building in the EPO region. Better yet go and advance through the run at h5 and you can see the process occurring. Models do ok with predicting them, but getting the timing and depth correct is difficult at range.

A raging +AO is almost certain death to snow chances around here. If we end up with sustained +heights in the EPO/WPO space, it would be difficult for the AO to be severely positive though. A neutral to somewhat +AO is probably what we are looking at going forward.

I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. Last 2 runs of the GEFS don't look quite as good in the HL region as the 18z h5 map I posted last night, but still acceptable. If you look at the teleconnections, interestingly the most recent runs of the EPS and GEFS both have the AO trending very close to neutral by day 15. Not sure if that works out, but if the AO is going to have a tendency to be in the positive phase, we need the EPO ridge to be as advertised on recent runs(strength and position) and become a sustained feature going forward.

So now the gefs looks better than the eps haha..its like a tennis match Yeah and if that HL look is legit, there will be a series of cold fronts moving through and the tendency for eastern ridging will be replaced by a mean trough.

Looking better and better up top. TPV displaced southward and ridging building over GL. Got the EPO ridge going a bit bonkers too.

Judah never predicts winter will end. He is busy figuring out another creative way to take credit in case things do flip, despite his theory failing yet again.

I was never expecting more than an inch, even with the best of runs over the past few days. After last night/this morning's runs, it was clear a few mangled flakes would be a win here.

Yes, and to them I said congrats. Also, a lot did not. Don't be so dense.

Okay, Yoda. What's your point?

Never overlook a bad setup with no antecedent cold, and with no mechanism to deliver cold. In a bad overall pattern for snow, anyone outside of the higher elevations to the west who received an inch, congrats.

How difficult is it to post an image right side up? I have never had an issue myself. I think I tweaked my neck a bit.

The weeklies from yesterday might provide a hint as to where we go going forward. If you haven't taken a peak, it looks familiar.

Exactly. That's why I made the post. Silly to worry about surface temps, sun, etc leading up the the event. Maybe in mid March. I was at 27 this morning. That wont help it snow in my yard later today. eta- UHI areas it obv can have an impact on accums with a marginal airmass. With the low dews and dynamical cooling, it will snow regardless. Depending on rates, might take a bit longer to stick in the cities. I would expect areas right along I-95 to see about an inch.

What kills the east of I-95 area with this further north track is the lower level temps. Look at 925 mb and its above freezing through much of the event. It is not a good setup for advecting in colder/drier air from the north either. Unless the better forcing/heavier precip gets in here, its going to be white rain for the last hour or so as modeled. Most guidance has the best lift from central into NE MD now though. Perfect setup for a quick thump up your way.

I might have some hair if I didn't like snow + live in a place where it seldom occurs.

Why are people so concerned about how much sun there is this morning? It wont make a damn bit of difference come game time.

Prior to today's 12z run(which ji seemed to suddenly approve of lol), the EPS was showing incremental improvement in the Pacific. PNA has been trending towards neutral. Aligns with the latest MJO forecasts, taking the MC wave into the COD after briefly moving into phase 6. Should it reemerge, it looks like it would be in 7,8. or 1. In contrast, GEFS has been taking a high amplitude wave into phase 6. I guess what I am saying is, there are signs of a less hostile PAC, particularly on the EPS. Absolutely want the HL blocking, but hopefully it wont have to be the sole savior for winter.

If -ao is our best indicie for snow.... PV becomes elongated in the LR on the GEFS, and maybe the building upper ridge near Scandinavia can further perturb it. QBO continues to drop and that should correlate to a weaker PV. We shall see.