CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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This is true, but let me help you with the rhyming part... Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong Move north where winters are cold and long Without lots of luck, winters here are brief, and suck
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For snow, negative AO is number one In absence, an EPO ridge may mitigate Otherwise DCA is done
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You are in a groove.
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Poetry section starts here. Go!
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You answered it all in your op. No one knows. It's in the hands of god. NWP is useless hocus-pocus. end thread/
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Another awful Tenman thread. Poetry?
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Just to expand the futility area a bit, Philly is at 0.3". Their worst snowfall season was 1972-73, recording a trace. As of now, this winter would rank second, just ahead of 1997-98, with 0.8".
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Latest EPS forecast could very well be "wrong". Thing is, I simply made a post stating what it is currently depicting, and that it wasn't good. Never claimed it was going to verify. No hitching of wagons. Now straighten your panties- they be all bunched up.
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C'mon. A met as experienced as murky knows the CFS nails these indices far more often than the EPS. CFS is literally a model of consistency. Almost always verifies. Hardly ever vacillates.
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No need. He is a pompous azz and he isn't fooling anyone here. LOL 30 year met.
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Might not work out. Who is doing the hitching here? Apparently you love the advertised EPS h5 look- at least enough to troll PSU.
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Latest EPS MJO forecast in the LR- after briefly getting into phase 7, wave dies out then looks to re-emerge in phase 5/6. That wont help much.
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You claim you are a met right? Then you understand climo. NE doesn't need all the stars aligned to get a good result.
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Check this out. Good overall presentation on NAM/ENSO/NAO and solar activity, and specifically addresses the solar/NAO correlation. Probably not what many would expect over the long term. http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
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-(-NAO)
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I took a peek this morning and the GEFS and EPS both have the AO trending towards neutral, and the NAO going slightly negative. Nothing is locked in up top though, and no signs of a sustained -AO or -NAO. Look at h5 on the 6z GEFS at the end, and the TPV is over Baffin with a ++NAO look.
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12z GEFS yesterday had an impressive signal for snow for the 25th-30th period. Since then it has deteriorated significantly. The general pattern being advertised is pretty decent overall, but there are little "flaws" showing that shift around between model cycles.
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All these maps do is remind me that I live 150 miles too far south for snow 90% of the time.
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Schreck et al.
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Pretty significant improvement on the 12z GEFS for the 25-30th window.
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Higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes rather than lower heights(ideal) is the biggest issue with this threat at as depicted at range. The track is about perfect, and everything else is decent enough, and there is plenty of time for features to get tweaked a bit, hopefully in the favorable direction.
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I hear ya. At this point I am just going to watch and see how the new long wave pattern actually establishes beyond this weekend. Hopefully we start to see more hits pop up on future runs. I think the +heights in central Canada will build further NW going forward. Can start to see that occurring towards the end of the 0z GEFS run.
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We are talking about means at range dude. The overriding theme on all guidance, including the CFS, is the improvement on the PAC side with the PNA and the EPO going forward. As you know, classically good looks that show up at D15 rarely look the same on a mean when that gets inside D10.
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More likely with the pattern change barely underway for this coming weekend. There is a bit of a signal for that period, although it could be colder. Plenty of time.
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This looks like a 'much better pattern' than the garbage one we have had the past 2+ weeks to me, and pretty much matches what has been advertised across guidance lately.. We will have to wait and see if the upcoming period produces any significant snow, but this is an h5 look that could get it done.
