CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Ravens were awful regardless. All but one penalty on the final 2 drives were real and self inflicted. Luckily the Bills were not very accepting of the Raven's charitable gestures.
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WOW at the NO- SF game. Brees blew up that vaunted pass D today.
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That was some seriously undisciplined play on those last few drives. Not pretty, but it's a win.
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TY M. Peters.
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Complete self destruction by the Ravens D in the fourth quarter, Pathetic.
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Just missing on some passes. Keep running the ball like that and there will be more opportunities downfield.
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Yeah I like the persistence of the key features thus far. We have remained generally cold, with some brief warm-ups over the last month or so. No hints of a prolonged shutout pattern. Just keep that going heading into peak climo and we should be in good shape.
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Looking at the 12z GEFS, any significant degradation of the Pacific pattern looks brief. The deep trough off the west coast progresses east, and heights are building behind it, with lower heights near the Aleutians and hints of ridging over AK at the end of the run. Looks like a general continuation of a progressive, changeable pattern.
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I posted the third week of the month. CFS craps up the Pac some beyond that, but it has what looks to be a -AO and a neutral NAO, so the EC still looks to be in decent shape.
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Yup. Was watching h5 as it was rolling and I liked what I saw. Not a huge difference, but enough.
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12z GFS looks nice. Cant be totally right though because it bulleyes my yard.
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CFS has a much improved look for the rest of the month compared to what it had been advertising previously. Supposedly it is pretty accurate in this range, and it aligns with what we are seeing on the global ensembles. Pretty cold look here for week 3 of December. Potentially active too with a split flow and hints of lower pressure in the SW.
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That's what I usually go with lol, especially where I live.
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If it gives you the most snow.
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Beware early NAMings lol. 6"+ for nearby highlands. 4-5" in the corridor.
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At this juncture, an inch or 2, with 3 in the favored areas seems like a realistic high bar. Low bar is the typical white rain we often see in these set ups.
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Same look just shifted NW more towards your area. Here is the snowfall total, which seems pretty reasonable to me.
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6z Euro looks pretty sweet.
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21 and very frosty this morning.
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In other weather news, the rainfall potential looks impressive for the early week period- maybe 2" in some spots. Also, Tuesday looks pretty toasty with temps perhaps well into the 60s. THEN comes our snow (fail) opportunity, where only a 30 degree drop in temps plus perfect timing with any impulses moving along the front is all that's required.
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Looking at all the latest runs, in general the best forcing for a longer duration looks to occur NW parts of the region, so even with marginal surface temps a few inches may accumulate. The fall line and points SE have some work to do, with temps mostly mid 30s and maybe not getting the best rates either. That's not a good combo, but it could change(might get worse lol).
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Looks a heck of a lot better than 12z.
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Wow what a win.
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Improving look in the NA in the LR on the 18z GEFS. Weak ridging over GL with a 50-50 low. Xmas eve eve.
