CAPE

I do think Hollywood makes a couple big plays tonight, maybe one for a touchdown. Wide receivers have been too quiet. Need to get them involved more, other than blocking.

Prediction: Lamar will come out throwing- to his wide recievers. That's a BOLD prediction.

I prefer my news source to be composed of 99% conspiracy theorists.

Gruden was a great color guy. Very entertaining. He is a mediocre coach. He should switch careers again.

Not a Booger fan.

Holy shiit this Fox pregame show is terrible.

Lmao. And that's where I expected it to be- as that is where it is for the mean. That would make too much sense though.

I see it now. Makes perfect sense it would be there, under snowfall.

I see nothing for p-type for all members. Precip yes Snowfall yes. Ofc its the worst design for a site ever, so I could be missing it.

Its complete crap.

Looks like a possible beach chase. And maybe some snow too .

I have been tracking it closely on the EPS runs. It was either side of Xmas with maybe +3 to +5 F for a few days. Now it looks like a couple days of +2. then back to avg and heading downward.

The lag when loading panels on WB is maddening. What an awful service for the money.

I doubt anyone actually believes them verbatim. Its all for the lolz. Snow maps imo have little value until inside of 3 days, and even then they need to be objectively interpreted based on surface temps, 700, 850 mb temps, etc.

50-50 low under a NA h5 ridge + surface HP beneath the confluence to its W/SW is money.

I'm ok with the advertised EPS progression even though it does dump a piece of the TPV into a developing EPAC trough. Its not a warm pattern by any means as depicted, and as long as the HL blocking is real, it wont necessarily be a shutout period either. As is verbatim, there would be a few days centered on Xmas with temps near/slightly above average for our region.

Yeah as we well know, the "perfect" h5 looks often don't produce. I will take a -AO , a west based -NAO, and a mediocre PAC with a warm neutral/Nino background state and roll with it.

0z EPS continues to expand the area of lower h5 heights eastward across much of the US under the HL block. Fwiw, temps around Xmas are average to a couple degrees above. With this look, the following week would be moderately colder. No super cold air in our source region though.

All that rooting didn't help for either event on the 0z GFS.

Dunno. Alaska.

Whatever is gonna happen will happen regardless, as we all know. That was a nice discussion/illustration btw, but would have been better using the Ens runs rather than the op runs, which can and do change pretty dramatically from run to run..

Take it out to the end of the run (the 27th) and its 2 ft+ from DC to Dover, plus SE VA into central NC get buried. Pretty epic run that will remain a complete fantasy lol.

Euro shows a heatwave at the same time Slight difference of opinion. Beware the FV3 cold bias in the long range.

The PAC flood/warmth/torch "is there" on the EPS- Temps are an impressive 2-5 deg F above avg in our region from the 23rd to the 26th- the last few days of the run. FWIW. If correct, no it probably wont snow during that period. But no signs of anything crazy like mid 60s for Xmas at this point. 45-50? ok, its whatever if it happens. And looking at h5 at the end of the 12z EPS , the pattern is improving, although it may take a few more days. My takeaway is we are looking at slightly above avg temps for a week if the EPS is correct, and if it is also correct with the advertised h5 look- rolling it forward- we would be in a good place by the New Year. Maybe sooner.

EPS mean snowfall through mid next week isn't great, but a lot better than the GEFS.