CAPE

Prior to today's 12z run(which ji seemed to suddenly approve of lol), the EPS was showing incremental improvement in the Pacific. PNA has been trending towards neutral. Aligns with the latest MJO forecasts, taking the MC wave into the COD after briefly moving into phase 6. Should it reemerge, it looks like it would be in 7,8. or 1. In contrast, GEFS has been taking a high amplitude wave into phase 6. I guess what I am saying is, there are signs of a less hostile PAC, particularly on the EPS. Absolutely want the HL blocking, but hopefully it wont have to be the sole savior for winter.

I am a realist. If that 4.4 over my yard is an inch I will be thrilled.

If -ao is our best indicie for snow.... PV becomes elongated in the LR on the GEFS, and maybe the building upper ridge near Scandinavia can further perturb it. QBO continues to drop and that should correlate to a weaker PV. We shall see.

Not a thing of beauty or anything but EPS showing continued improvement in the Pac. PNA trending towards neutral in the LR, mean trough is further east, and the SE ridge is flatter/suppressed. Still has +heights building around Scandinavia, but not making much progress towards GL yet.

NWP. Hows the DCA temperature sensor working these days?

Mount Holly's updated AFD on this "threat"- As we move into Tuesday, the day will start off quiet as high pressure moves out to sea and weakens. This will allow for an area of low pressure to move offshore of the Mid Atlantic region to our south by Tuesday afternoon, then strengthen as it moves northward offshore of Delaware and New Jersey coasts. This will likely bring a period of precipitation across the area, especially along and south and east of the I-95 corridor, and mainly across southern New Jersey, southern Delaware, and southern Maryland. If the precipitation begins early enough, it looks like it will start as rain for many areas. However, as the low wraps up as it moves closer to the area, colder air will wrap around the low and the precipitation will likely mix with or change over to snow. While all of the guidance indicates a transition to snow, only the 12z NAM has a significant accumulation. For now, we`ve sided more with the GFS, ECMWF, WPC and have mostly a half inch or less. Temperatures may be too warm for significant accumulations to occur, even though there could be a period of heavier snow due to strong lift within the dendritic zone across southern New Jersey, southern Delaware, and southern Maryland. eta- when they refer to "southern MD", they mean the southern most extent of their MD eastern shore counties, i.e. Talbot and Caroline.

Looks about the same as 12z. Seems there will be some sort of a transfer, and the coastal low will be offshore, and racing away. Not likely there will be much more than a coating anywhere outside of the mountains to our W/SW at this point.

Graphically:

Outcome of the coin toss is part of the game.

I actually like it. If the D cant keep the other team from scoring a TD on their first drive, they don't deserve a chance. Hold em to a FG.

WOW. Congrats all you Vikings fans. Great win. Happy for Cousins.

Love Drew Brees but actually cheering for the Vikings here.

EPS has been ever so slowly trending towards a neutral, and possibly a +PNA over recent runs. Good sign.

3km NAM looks a tad different, and more believable.

NAM is LOL. That will be 90% rain on the eastern shore, esp the lower shore. Might be some wet flakes at some point but this thing is going to be racing through and redevelopment will be mostly offshore. AND no cold air to work with.

12z GFS looks impotent.

Milton, DE for a tour of the DFH brewery it is!

Yup. Unfortunately I gave up my SRT. But driving a leased Overland with all the creature comforts and a powerful(relatively speaking) V6 ain't too bad either.

I still can. Gettysburg!

I have time off work, and I do mini road trips all over this time of year. Given the absolute shiit pattern coming up, yeah I could definitely work it in to my plans.

I am still considering it. My hesitation is the high bust potential no matter where the "jackpot" is, as it is a marginal event in coverage, qpf, and temps. 3km suggests I should head towards Rehoboth lol.

lol check out the 3km NAM. The NAMs are so utterly useless at this range.