CAPE

Both the EPS and GEFS are building heights in the EPO space towards day 15, but it's a bit too far west. There will be a mechanism to get cold air delivery into Canada, but we will probably need to be patient here. Hopefully the -EPO is real, and the long wave pattern progresses eastward. Verbatim the mean trough will be in the western US with a west based EPO ridge, and with a +NAO, there will a tendency for a persistent SE ridge, and a storm track to our NW.

23 this morning with heavy frost. Might be the last time it will be below freezing until the new year, although it may get just below 32 tonight.

Cold and frosty morning. I squinted a bit and It kinda looked like a covering of snow. Not a white Christmas, but better than waking up to rain. Another great weather day ahead. Hope everyone enjoys the holiday with friends and family. Perfect fire pit day with some Christmas cheer.

Was frosty here earlier, but the temp has shot up since 5am. Was 28 for a low here, now 41. A bit of a southerly flow ahead of the weak cold front moving in. Nice day on tap.

Here is h5 for the first week of Jan from the 0z EPS run. I've seen better lol. 0z GEFS has a bit more ridging out west and normal h5 heights for the east coast for the same period, with lower height anomalies just to the NW over the GLs. Overall colder look.

First week of Jan continues to look active on the GEFS with some cold around. As depicted it could be an interesting period. Fwiw, the snow means the past few runs have looked decent for the window beginning around Jan 3. Given the GFS propensity for overdoing cold in the LR, not getting overly excited about it yet, and the EPS isn't as enthusiastic.

Good to see the Ravens were quick to make the decision to sit Lamar and some other key starters for the Steelers game. This team is focused and on a mission, so it's an easy call to risk being a bit 'rusty' over a possible serious injury in a meaningless game. I don't want the Steelers getting in, but I think the Titans will beat the Texans, who also are locked in and have nothing to play for. If that happens, the Steelers go home.

Its gonna be cold after Jan 1. Wonder if DT could advise me on the chances of this verifying. Thinking of heading to J-ville for a chase.

Not gonna see much 50-50 low action with a +NAO. 50-50 highs are going to be more likely. The currently advertised LR h5 pattern is pretty much the inversion of what we want to see. Is it correct? Who knows.

Not pretty. The +AO/+NAO/+EPO trifecta provides literally no mechanism for cold air delivery into the mid latitudes. Hopefully it is a temporary state, or the guidance is currently overstating that look.

Dude. Chill. He played with no signs of a serious injury after being dinged a little.

It definitely can happen. But otoh, you play your key players in an absolutely meaningless game and one or more sustains a serious injury, then what? Fans and sports media kill you and you might lose in the first round anyway. You trust the coaches and players to prepare and be ready to go, well rested. Should not be a problem.

What gave you that idea? Honestly, I am pretty objective. Took me a long time to wrap my head around the fact that this team is pretty darn good.

No reason in the world to play Jackson a single play next week. Should be able to handle the Steelers at home with RG3 under center.

After a super slow start by Ravens standards,. that second quarter was a WOW. Mastery running the 2 min offense for TDs- TWICE. Vintage Jackson. He has all the skills + the intangibles. After the initial drive in the third quarter, it was pretty much lights out for the Browns.

Yeah it builds the NAO ridge week 4-5, so who knows how real that is. Looks somewhat positive/neutral before that. Hopefully the EPO ridge gets into a better spot, because I still have my doubts about a sustained NA block, and as you said without it we fight the tendency for SE ridging given the advertised the EPO location verbatim.

Agreed. If the CFS actually has a clue, I would be ok with what it's advertising overall, with an EPO ridge and a mostly neutral AO/NAO look, and a piece of the TPV on our side, although not necessarily in an ideal spot. This look would be acceptable for mid-late Jan:

Another cold, frosty morning. 20 degrees here. Looking forward to temps above 40 today. Its been a nice cold shot the past week, but I am ready for a few 50 degree days before we plunge into deep winter for early Jan.

Beginning right around the new year continues to look potentially active, with at least somewhat colder air in place. 6z GEFS upped the game a bit. First week of Jan has what looks to be multiple waves tracking just to our south. Rolling through the p-type panels for that period is a fun exercise, and it is also reflected on the snowfall mean.

Glancing at the 0z means, looks like straight up blue across the top at h5 in the LR. +EPO/+AO/+NAO. The hints of a building EPO ridge from previous runs are gone for now(or delayed). Despite that, we manage at least seasonable cold, as advertised. Likely some IOD/MJO 'conflicts' still playing into the currently advertised pattern evolution beyond day 10.. The latest CFS weeklies look pretty nice weeks 2-6. Active look week 2, and general cold beyond that with a -EPO, and even hints of a -NAO week 5.

Yeah probably a good reason to keep our sights on the day 10 period- Interesting enough looks on the EPS and the GEFS for around the New Year, and beyond that is probably more muddled than usual.

I don't hate that look at all.

Its not a bad look in the LR on the mean, but realistically the h5 pattern won't look like that, as there is quite a bit of spread on the individual members. Verbatim the mean looks cold for much of the lower 48, but its likely due to disagreement among the members on location of the main features. We are not likely going to see low h5 height anomalies covering most of the Continental US as depicted towards the end of the run.

I have been busy having fun and not paying a lot of attention to the LR big picture the past few days(a good thing) but there is a lot of good stuff happening here.