CAPE

I didn't want to overstate it for obvious reasons, but I wasn't nuts about it either. Might see better trends at 12z. Normally I would not invest at all in a set up like this as it almost always ends up completely underwhelming here, but this winter, lol, gotta take what I can get. The CAD needs to be legit, and if that continues to trend weaker on guidance I will lose interest fast.

I am interested to see how far N that primary low can progress, and exactly when the coastal gets going. If the initial CAD is strong there should be a transfer before the primary tracks too far north, with a coastal low developing just to our south. That should aid in keeping the lower levels cold, esp NW of the fall line. More precarious for coastal areas depending on the exact timing and location of the low forming along the coast.

Just what we don't want to see, but usually happens lol. CAD is weaker and front end is weak sauce. Hopefully this is not a "trend".

Looking at the 0z runs as a whole, not a big difference but slightly less favorable overall. Given the set up we need that front end to come in fast and furious, especially for the coastal plain. More wiggle room for places NW of the cities. I want to see solid holds or improvement each run, not incremental degradation.

This is a classic.

Yeah I wasn't nuts about EPS D12 to 15. Looks like it wants to retro again and pull the trough back to the west some. Subtle though and it could be noise. Need another run or 2 to see where its headed.

There are another cluster of lows into Ohio.

I see 2 general camps for the primary among the members. The W. TN camp with a transfer to NC coast would work just fine.

Looking ahead towards the beginning of March, this wouldn't be too bad a look..

We didn't have an El Nino until yesterday. We should see atmospheric response by mid April I'm guessing.

He will be back shortly I bet. He cant stay out with this potential on the table. @Bob Chill get yo ass back up in here dude. We want/need your analysis on this flawed, yet desperately needed event.

Be like Jon Snow. We weren't quite sure, but yet, we knew it was coming.

Snow/sleet, whatever. Its frozen, and better than 12z. Lets keep it moving in a favorable direction. No setbacks.

Not sure the wedge holds without some coastal development. Ideally the primary tracks into TN and we see a coastal form off of NC.

Depends how far north the primary tracks, the strength of the CAD, and when/where, and to what degree the coastal develops. If there is no coastal development/transfer, there will be a transition to rain as the mids and low level temps will warm quicker, from SE to NW.

Yeah you might be right. The 12z yesterday run kinda lost any hint of a -NAO though, but overall it was probably a tad better.

Maybe yesterday's 12z EPS was the "worst" look we get for the upcoming period. The 0z run was better towards D15. Lets see what today's run looks like.

There is remarkably good agreement across guidance for this lead time. Now the trick is for this threat to become incrementally more favorable with time instead of less.

IMO this is a case when those maps actually do have some worth- when there is a pretty clearly defined threat inside of a week.

I was just playing a bit, making reference to that brief "deb" period you had back in early Jan I think it was, when things looked a little bleak. I know you have been consistent with your thoughts on snow chances, and are optimistic when its warranted. I try to do the same. We likely aren't going to see any "ideal" looks materialize, so it will snow in flawed set ups, or it wont. I think it will though. I have no expectations or bars. I hope to see a warning event or 2 over the next few weeks, but if not I am on to Spring mode and stuff like mosquito larvae eradication. I understand the frustration though. I just try to go with it here, and not let the relatively few detract. I am pretty good about ignoring the dumb crap most of the time. I think lol.

It really doesn't. The op runs are all pretty similar with features and advertised frozen at this juncture. Which way will this trend..

Yeah it was only off by 8.5 inches for my yard the last storm. Not much ground truth difference between a half inch and 9" though.

My front end "thumps" here are usually an inch or less.

Might get something transient. but outside of that I doubt it. Now had the Nino actually developed as expected, we could have seen blocking materialize for the last half of winter, as there does seem to be a correlation there during a Modoki Nino. Still might not have worked out though with the SWE and the QBO trends.