CAPE

Yes. How could we possibly forget, lol. Given the different ENSO state heading into winter, who woulda thunk we could end up with the same result. Hopefully we wont.

This may be an oversimplification, but the key to me on the PAC side, however it actually ends up evolving from from 'bad' to 'good', is a shift in the tropical forcing away from the MC and towards the dateline.

If more people in our region were accepting of this/understood climo, there would be much less hand wringing when the guidance advertises a "bad" pattern. Even so-called epic patterns often result in nothing of consequence in these parts.

Currently 32. First freezing temp here since the morning of Dec 26th.

There might be. I don't look at them that often- typically it's when we are being teased with an h5 look that is promising.

Having never looked into it, I have always thought of it as a 'smart' version of the regular ensembles. I just Googled it, and here is an academic technical overview of a super ens modeling system: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015RG000513 The notion of the multimodel superensemble was first described in Krishnamurti et al. [1999]. This utilizes a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. That regression is carried out with respect to analyzed (assimilated) values. Given a number of grid locations, base variables, forecast intervals, and a suite of models, the number of statistical weights can be as high as 107. That many coefficients are needed because of different responses to physical parameterizations of local features such as water bodies, local mountain features, and land surface details within diverse member models. These details contribute to systematic errors in forecasts. The high skill of the superensemble comes from a domain average of the point by point RMS errors that it is minimizing.

It's there at that link- under 500 mb Analogs, go down to Analogs, click on GFS ens.

Reality is in just about every winter we get 2-4 weeks where the pattern is favorable enough for snow in most of this region. We possibly "wasted" one already, so we might have another 2-3 weeks somewhere between now and mid March. Modeled "perfect" patterns often don't work out. The upcoming advertised pattern looks like a shutout on the means, but it may not turn out that way. My guess is that one or 2 chances will materialize over the next few weeks during transient cold periods, and maybe we(someone's yard) will get lucky. If not, It tends to find ways to snow in February around here.

This is the link I use- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php

My guess is they are giving too much weight to the CFS. Very little uncertainty on the GEFS and EPS wrt to EPO ridge position and the resulting SE ridge having some staying power. That probability map would make more sense for the MA and NE if there were clear signs of a NA block developing. eta- I should have said higher or significant weight to the CFS.. "Too much" is more subjective, and based on my opinion that it's a pretty crappy model in general to use for weeks 3-4.

Yeah maybe this is something to watch. 6z GEFS looks a bit better than 0z, so maybe a bit of a trend. Mean trough is broader and extends further east, with the EC ridge pushing more into the W Atlantic.

As anomalous and stable as the PAC ridge looks on the means in the LR, we are pretty much relegated to watching the HL region on the Atlantic side for some help. It's likely just the usual end of run smoothing, but the 0z EPS seems to weaken the anomalously low h5 heights over GL with the TPV moving west a bit, and is also hinting at ridging from Scandinavia expanding into that region. Looking for signs of life..

The further north you go and/or at higher elevations the less critical it is to have all the weather index "stars" aligned. The upper MW/GLs and NNE can still do okay with the advertised crapola pattern. If the trough does in fact lock in out west then obviously the mountain areas out there will do quite well.

I thought it looked decent and much better than what we are staring at now. If nothing else that would bring cross polar flow with some clipper potential. Too bad it's the CFS at range and is about as useful as the EPS weeklies.

Yeah I mentioned it earlier today. PSU was very excited to hear that the CFS is advertising a shift from Pac puke to a cutter pattern with cold/dry shots.

Here are the actual 7 day temp anomalies for mid Jan as advertised on the latest weeklies.

Yeah high temps in the mid 40s would be glorious for outdoor activities around the 20th of Jan, but the advertised 500 mb pattern is not supportive of snow for this area, which is all anyone here cares about.

Perpetual hot garbage through V-day. Good thing they are fairly useless, although given the stable look we are seeing on the global ensembles, more believable than usual.

0.70" total for the event. High of 67 here today, then a sharp drop between 1 and 2 pm. Currently 45.

I was just being facetious. We are in fail mode by default lol. I am always impressed by the ens guidance in general inside 10 days. Especially useful when there is a less stable/predictable pattern- i.e higher uncertainty- where the op runs alone can be nearly useless due to the run to run variability.

Not impressive at all when 80% of the time we are in a fail pattern.

It's a little hard to get a sense of it looking at a composite, but a sustained -NAO (and often a quasi-stationary 50-50 low underneath) produces a true "block" in the flow- basically the opposite of a progressive pattern. Along with a favorable storm track and a more sustained eastern trough, it 'forces' a strengthening coastal low to move more slowly to the NE or ENE under the block.

Many here have probably seen this CWG article by Wes from a few winters ago, but for those who have not, it is very good and explains/discusses the roles of the key indices(AO, NAO, EPO, ENSO, etc) and their impacts on cold and snow for the DC area, and includes insightful scatter diagrams. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/12/what-the-different-weather-patterns-might-mean-for-snow-this-winter/

For now I will hang my hat on the CFS weeklies. Starts to shift the long wave pattern around the 20th to a gradient look, then develops a favorable EPO ridge and deep trough in the east into Feb. With a +NAO it would probably feature NW tracking lows followed by cold/dry.

That blocking ridge in the Pac looks legit and stable on the means. At some point the pattern will break down. Hopefully we don't waste most of Jan in the process.