CAPE

Yeah there are 4-5 big hitters in the mix. The 16th might be a bit soon but its still a week out so who knows. Seems the general improvement in the pattern is incrementally trending sooner on the guidance.

^ A trip to Canaan or Deep Creek looks like a good bet.

Not bad for the 18th - 25th of Jan window.

Yeah I guess I must have missed that one.

Pretty consistent signal for that time frame for a frozen/mixy precip event. Could be fun times a bit sooner than we all thought. Minus Merksy ofc.

Agreed. Its winter. I want winter weather.

At least there will still be cutters when a sw amps to our west with that +NAO, so not totally dry.

Yeah it has the look of a tendency towards that overall. I will be in chase mode until the very end of the month. Mountains, or with that look maybe a coastal scraper will take me back to the beach.

Some respectable cold right here.

Yeah that is a really decent h5 look. Nice to continually see the ops spit out these chances, and sooner than we all thought a few days ago.

Interesting. Snow/ice to rain look.

Yeah they changed about 4 years ago I think. Players wanted it. Remember the string of lower leg/knee injuries the Ravens went through over a 2-3 year period? It was uncanny.

Agree. Especially with rain likely during the game. Hopefully Ingram is healthy enough to at least get some limited carries.

Gus will do fine if he gets the majority of the carries. He has proven himself, is a great downhill runner and has a burst in the second level. Ingram beings a certain mentality and has great initial explosiveness. He runs angry.

Latest indications don't look good for Ingram playing this week. Gus the bus will need to carry the load.

TBD.

au contraire. I am very stable and level headed. Despite living in a place that blows for snow chances, I track on, contributing for the greater good.

Yeah this is an interesting question. I think most people have an idea or perception of what is favorable for winter weather- for most here that means legit snow chances- and ofc what is considered favorable varies based on specific location within our region, as factors like physical topography/proximity to water/UHI lead to disparate local climates over relatively short distances.

Other more established(knowledgeable) posters have said the same thing. @WxUSAF comes to mind. Mersky seems to have a need to brag about "predicting" something he likely read multiple times elsewhere.

I will answer this wrt occurrences in the troposphere, because thats what we are concerned with as it directly impacts sensible weather. It's pretty common during winter for vortices to shed off and rotate southward in the troposphere, especially when a ridge builds up into the HL region. You can see this on the 6z GFS panel that Ralph posted with that big anticyclone building in the EPO region. Better yet go and advance through the run at h5 and you can see the process occurring. Models do ok with predicting them, but getting the timing and depth correct is difficult at range.

A raging +AO is almost certain death to snow chances around here. If we end up with sustained +heights in the EPO/WPO space, it would be difficult for the AO to be severely positive though. A neutral to somewhat +AO is probably what we are looking at going forward.

I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. Last 2 runs of the GEFS don't look quite as good in the HL region as the 18z h5 map I posted last night, but still acceptable. If you look at the teleconnections, interestingly the most recent runs of the EPS and GEFS both have the AO trending very close to neutral by day 15. Not sure if that works out, but if the AO is going to have a tendency to be in the positive phase, we need the EPO ridge to be as advertised on recent runs(strength and position) and become a sustained feature going forward.

So now the gefs looks better than the eps haha..its like a tennis match Yeah and if that HL look is legit, there will be a series of cold fronts moving through and the tendency for eastern ridging will be replaced by a mean trough.

Looking better and better up top. TPV displaced southward and ridging building over GL. Got the EPO ridge going a bit bonkers too.

The too little, too late snow is falling here now. Finally kicked that LL warm air out. 33 now. Maybe a trace. Woop.