CAPE

^Very well could be the Ravens opponent next week. I expect the Pats will find a way to beat the Titans in an ugly game.

Damn. Impressive opening drive by the Bills.

It's Jan. I am well beyond being giddy over snow tv.

I am prepared to chase this week, as long as there is a chance for a solid couple inches. NAM says stay home lol.

I wouldn't know...

C'mon dude, it is clear you are on the payroll of 007. No worries. You aren't the only one.

Oh I don't mind imperials at all. lol. Prefer them actually. I have tried quite a few from Mispillion. Not tried that one yet though. Love Milford, DE. Such a comfy, quaint town. Speaking of Imperials, I cracked open that Oak aged Vanilla WWS. It was calling me from its very temporary home in the fridge.

There have been some hints of improvement on the PAC side for the fist time in a while. Latest MJO forecasts suggest tropical convection may actually progress off of the MC, and there are subtle signs of improvement in the central/eastern PAC on the EPS and the GEPS, including an increase in the PNA beyond D10. Might be noise. We should know in a few days, lol.

The EPS looks similar but the trend towards neutral is at a slightly lower rate. GEFS shows a slight increase then levels off.

So I am not hallucinating. lol. I have a feeling the EPS tellies are going to have the PNA rising towards or above -2!

I see some slight improvement in the PAC on the 12z EPS at the end. Pac ridge is weaker, slightly further east, and the trough seems to be on the move east. Or maybe I am hallucinating.

9 bucks a bottle is typical if you find a place that sells singles(most do). Otherwise its 36 a 4 pack.

One of you NW of the fall line people should start a thread.

I have a bottle of the Vanilla in the fridge. That is my "least" fav of the 3. I defo need to get more of the Bourbon barrel one.

12z GEFS continues to have a modest signal for something frozen between the 16th and 18th with a cold front that temporarily knocks down the SE ridge. We can track this until it disappears lol. Otherwise it's wall to wall SE ridge and mild, and still hints of higher h5 heights building towards GL from Scand at the end of the run.

@mattie g @nw baltimore wx @Scraff If you haven't tried DFH Bourbon barrel aged World Wide Stout, pick one up(or more, but at 18.3% one will do). Freaking delicious.

They will just have to run for 300 yds instead of 200.

Prime window runs from mid Jan to mid Feb historically. Some of our bigger snows have occurred mid to late Feb, and once in a while early March. Lately March has become more of a winter month.

Some wet flakes and maybe a coating would be nice, esp given the advertised pattern over the next couple weeks. I should head to the western highlands. Looks like some decent winter out there over the next few days. Will be hard to come by in the very near future.

That looks a little better than yesterday's forecast, which had it weakening just as it was moving into phase 6, then into the COD. Looked like from there it might loop and flare up right near the MC again. Hopefully the strength and forward momentum will take it into phase 7 before it weakens.

I have said exactly that several times over the past couple days.That is my expectation, especially imby. Your area could more easily luck into something.

We do pretty well at failing in those too lol. At least we wont be complaining about warm/wet followed by cold/dry.

It wasn't too difficult in Feb 2015. Winter essentially started mid Feb. We might have to hope we get that chance this year lol. eta- One thing of note here- when we look at the advertised h5 pattern on an ens mean, we get the general picture, and in this case, we can clearly see it is stable and unfavorable for snow here. That being said, there are always perturbations/relaxations in the 500 mb pattern that are less discernible on a LR mean , even one that features a sustained blocking ridge. Although our snow chances are severely limited based on the advertised mean long wave pattern, it is not zero.

Pretty much all guidance has a major convective wave over the MC going forward. Beyond that it dies out, but really shows little impetus to progress into the WPAC and towards the dateline. Most likely it will flare up again in the same location(phases 4-5). That big ass Pacific ridge is not going anywhere if that continues. The only way out over the next 2-3 weeks is significant help up top.

Problem continues to be the monster Pac ridge. Until it weakens/shifts/morphs into something other than what it is, the SE ridge will be a mainstay. IF we can get legit +height anomalies up top/in the NA, then the bad Pac can be mitigated somewhat, and compressed heights to our N/NE should suppress/flatten the SE ridge some.