CAPE

I concur. If the MJO forecasts fail, and absent any significant changes up top(not likely) then its difficult to believe there will be any appreciable changes in the pattern. As always, we wait and see.

That's a familiar look in the E/NPAC at the end of the EPS run. I could speculate about where it might be heading, but I wont.

16 here. Probably the coldest since the period before Xmas.

It's been what, a week or so now since we started to see a "different" looking pattern advertised on the means? Evaluating the modeled look now, to me it still lacks the look we need to increase our snow chances, esp heading into March, excluding a needle threading ofc. We are still seeing a vortex impinging on the EPO space, the mean PAC ridge is still too far west, and no hints of blocking. Maybe there will be some relaxation in the +AO, but it would probably be temporary. So whats really different? In general it's varying degrees of western ridging, depending on the model. GEFS/EPS has it up over western/central Canada. That is certainly a better look than what we have seen, but not sure how sustainable it is, or if it will be much of a net positive on our sensible weather. Unless the tropical forcing shifts, probably a good chance the pattern reverts back to what we have experienced since December, assuming we actually do get some meaningful change. Other than wavelengths, the one thing that could really help the cause is probably not in the cards. Not to worry, we will have our stout -NAO by May.

That area gets more snow than Canaan apparently. I'm going to charter a boat and drop anchor out there. Best chase ever.

RAR is good stuff! Nanticoke Nectar, Bucktown Brown, made with Rise-up Up coffee, 10 layers Stout, and my fav "pumpkin" ale ever, Big Lizz (made with locally grown butternut squash).

Maximized that event here. That has not happened often in recent winters imby lol. Only squall event that beats that one is when I lived in Carroll county back in the 80s as a kid. An all out white out with thunder that ended up with 3-4" in like 45 mins.

For like 5 minutes

Perfectly situated for miller As when we have a sustained -AO/-NAO and a weak/moderate Nino though, which happens once every 15 years.

Don't give up lol

Very cool event. Ended up with 3" here in less than an hour. Kicked off a great late run winter period. If only we could repeat that. Sigh.. 10977720_848937028500358_723062107_n.mp4

I do love the juicy NE IPAs too. Fell in love with those when I took a trip up there last summer. Drank plenty of Long Trail Hazy DIPA. Good stuff.

A Hudson Bay ridge could work tho!. At least we might be able to live vicariously through the northern Carroll county folks.

I get it for 9 a bottle. 12 is a bit insane. Either way, even a cheap SOB like you can afford to try it once.

But the h5 look is... "good". Have faith man.

Yes you can. We (I) also like imperial stouts. I know you are fond of those. Did you ever try a DFH WWS? Another big, high gravity, sipper. 18%.

It is a legit sipper. Insane amount of barley. Big and malty- bit of a sweet malt backbone with notes of of caramel/ toffee. Complex. Defo not your typical IPA. Not for everyone, but it is for me lol.

I love DIPAs. You have to try a DFH 120 min. 9 bucks for a single. Seriously. It's a completely different experience.

Since I made that initial post, I have sipped this down to a quarter glass. I would not drive right now lol. (probably)

Most "doubles" are in the 8-10% range

Probably quad lol. 18%. eta- DFH 120 min IPA. The "holy grail" of IPAs

Ha yes it will. I can drink a whole bottle of red wine myself no problem, but if I drink 2 of the 120s I am dead.

I think it's 120 time. I need me one of those 'special' buzzes, the kind you can only get from a super high gravity, high food value ale. Cheers!

Not really what I would consider a true(or completely useful) -EPO. That stubborn trough is still there. Even so, there would be "some" decent cold air available. The ridge in western/central Canada along with the TPV location to the east would mix in some Polar air, even if the somewhat weakened(hopefully) AK trough is still pumping in some Pac air. Also, given its modeled location, that air would be colder than if it was further south and stronger. One thing I will continue to say- all these advertised looks in the LR, although different and potentially somewhat better, are very fragile. Could still be a mirage and/or easily revert to the same old shit pattern, until proven otherwise.

Forecast low of 12 here tonight. Now that's anomalous in this mild, snow-less winter. Alas it will be back in the 50s by Monday.