CAPE

Andrews wasn't much of a factor either with the ankle. That first drive when he couldn't make that catch and it got picked set the tone of the game. Ravens limitation has been getting the ball to WRs down the field on the outside. They rely too much on the TEs using the middle of the field. Andrews being banged up and the Titan's scheme neutralized those bread and butter chunk plays. They have plenty of time now to work on that.

Titans are are playing clean football right now, and they are hot at the right time. Throw regular season stats out- that team has morphed into what we see now from the mid-season point. They are physical on both sides and have a dominant running back. Their D is playing very well now, and taking the ball away. Not a Dean Pees fan overall, but he is a competent coordinator and the Titans can put pressure on the QB without blitzing much. They will be a tough out next week.

Yeah and geography should not play a role in playoff seeding. It has happened in the past where a 7-9 division winner hosted a team that was 11-5 or 12-4 in the wildcard round. Seattle I think. NBA gets it right when it comes to playoffs and seeding.

GEPS has been doing this and has been a bit further south with the low track in general. Still a long way to go. You mentioned the confluence to our NE and that probably is the key area to watch in future runs. The strength of that will make or break snow/ice chances for the MA.

Was a bad day for purple.

Statistics are for losers, as the saying goes. Ravens were rusty, and seemed to play with no edge. They didn't make plays at critical times, and turned the ball over. The in-game coaching left a lot to be desired. But make no mistake, the Titans beat the Ravens in the trenches on both sides of the ball when it mattered, despite some impressive trash time stats. All their big plays led to TDs. and they didn't turn it over- that's ultimately what wins games in the NFL. An outcome like this was bound to occur at some point for a team that reeled of 12 straight in dominant fashion, and did practically everything right during that stretch. Law of averages. Happened at a bad time for the Ravens.

66 here. Went for a quick 2.5 mile hike earlier when it was 68 in a short sleeve shirt and felt warm.

All Purple. Lets do it.

I'm going to message DT and ask if this is meteorologically possible.

The general look is ok, but verbatim we would be fighting cold/dry, and any wave that amps would tend to take a NW track without perfect timing. Might be a decent pattern for several smaller events.

For the Ravens game, rain may not be much of an issue(maybe later in the game), but wind will be a factor. Gusts up to 30 mph.

I prefer the squirrel-acorn correlation.

Even here March has probably been the best winter month in recent years. I was just trying to depress a few people and maybe send some window shoppers to the Panic resort and conference center. I am on the payroll, although I haven't received any checks yet. In the mail I'm sure.

Euro is not nearly as cold, and we have the well known GFS bias of being too cold in the LR. Still a ways to go.

Yes it has evolved to something a bit different on the means. Not surprising, and not necessarily bad. See Showme's post above. Given where I live, my interest continues to lie primarily from 20th and forward. eta- I will keep an eye on next weekend, because if it looks like a decent event in the nearby highlands, I am in chase mode.

The ridiculous Spring-like warmth this morning got me thinking- in less than 2 months actual Spring will be on the doorstep.

I agree with this in general. We typically don't see significant winter events at the front end of a major pattern change. That said, it is still showing up on guidance, and I could see the usual places getting a mixy storm. Almost never happens on the coastal plain.

Yeah there is a chance we could see a more sustained block, but it has been a long time since that occurred during winter. As some of us were discussing yesterday, if the EPO ridge is going to be a prominent feature, we will have a persistent cold air source, so some periodic/well timed transient ridging in the NAO space could work as it would provide a mechanism to inhibit a bigger storm from cutting. Overall it's hard not to get a bit excited with what the guidance has been advertising lately. Looks like we have to get through 5 days or so of Spring and then things get rolling.

6z GEFS is a weenie run from late next weekend onward.

Different model lol. GEFS also builds heights during that time frame, but not as impressive and more transient than the EPS. By day 15 they both end up with pretty much the same look- big EPO ridge with a neutral NAO on the EPS, more positive on the GEFS.

EPS is now building some pretty significant +heights into the NAO domain in 10 days. The whole look up to is impressive on this panel. It's fairly transient, and a few days beyond this the EPO ridge becomes very impressive, with the NAO looking more neutral. Cold look down the line. Hopefully not dry.

Your best post here ever, by far!

Always liked this one from Yes, among many others.

Pretty much anything but country for me.

You're good. Sometimes you can "know too much". We both teach for a living, so you know what I mean lol.