CAPE

The 850 mb temps are ok. Bigger problem is that weak HP slides off the coast. With the true arctic air bottled up well north, its going to take a perfect track, and a strong low to dynamically cool the column. IMO it is nearly impossible to get a snowstorm for the coastal plain. Would literally take perfection. Could work out for the Piedmont, but even there just about everything would have come together just right.

1.12" here so far. Still coming down moderately.

Yeah we finally see hints of relaxation up top and the NAO moving towards neutral, and if the PAC transitions from Version 2 of total crap right back to version 1, it wont do us any good, outside of a mega block developing, which is very unlikely. Hey we still have the CFS, steadfast in its commitment to a +PNA and a stout EPO ridge going forward.

Will that reset the MJO to phase 1?

0z GEFS is suggesting full on winter cancel. 0z EPS showing some signs of moving that way too.

Until the strong AK vortex relents, the chances for snow in our area, east of the mountains, remains low. Between the EPAC ridge and the AK vortex, mild Pacific air is being hurled eastward. Look at our source region. No it's not a torch pattern here, but with no HL help, it is nearly impossible to get a legit cold air mass with the hostile PAC. Until we move away from this- To this... ...frozen will be hard to come by outside of the western highlands. On the 0z EPS, after an initial shot of moderate cold into the east around the 7th, it weakens/retros the PNA ridge and pulls the mean trough back into the central US, which looks a bit tenuous. It does appear to be building a ridge up into AK though. Still signs of improvement in the NAO domain with the TPV further west and elongated. More waiting to see exactly how the long wave pattern evolves towards mid Feb. Hopefully things don't go the way the 0z GEFS is suggesting. Back to square one. Or zero.

Pouring here. If it wont snow, might as well have a spring deluge.

Dw it wont be close in the end.

I think this situation calls for a bit of snarkiness.

What we are stuck with for now is a pure Pacific air mass. Looking at the 0z EPS, around Feb 3rd-4th there are indications of a somewhat colder regime building into our source region. The AK vortex is weakened but still there, so the flow of air is still largely off the Pac, but there is also some cross polar flow depicted at that time related to the TPV position. Guidance also has the NAO trending neutral around this time. Upshot is the super positive 850 temp anomalies over much of Canada weaken and get replaced with slightly negative anomalies, and some of that "moderate" cold heads SE. Until that occurs, I think we are likely looking at a very low probability of a widespread winter storm, outside of the highlands. eta- CFS still depicting a +PNA then a developing -EPO heading into mid Feb. So hopefully we see more significant indications of this at the end of the global ens runs the next few cycles. GEPS is there already at D15. Maybe it will actually materialize this time.

With a +AO and a ++EPO, its difficult if not impossible to get any deep cold down this far. There is a reason we are seeing meager snowfall probs on the means, and op run after op run with "good track" coastal rainers. Marginal cold might do it with a strong enough low, a perfect track, and some luck for inland areas, but a frozen outcome will be very difficult for the lowlands. The stubborn AK vortex seems to weaken some on the means in the LR, and there are signs of the NAO going at least neutral towards day 15. Probably still 10 days away from a potentially more favorable pattern- one that can transport legit cold into our region.

Only 21 for my yard??? Poor DT. His yard truly is the snow anus of the MA.

Three lows track SE of us on the 18z GFS, and nary a flake of snow lol. Comical shiit.

Woah. I think I have found a big ass Imperial stout I like as much as DFH WWS.

Yeah have to just let go of Dec/Jan at this point. Absolute miserable failure, esp for I-95 east. If Feb and March can deliver 2 or 3 decent events, then maybe we can salvage winter so it doesn't go in the books as a complete wreck. A bit of HL blocking would sure help that cause.

12z EPS builds some weak ridging into GL towards the end of the run. At least a neutral looking NAO. Maybe transient, but something to watch in future runs.

Hopefully there are some better trends with next week's wave(s). Squash city for now. Would be a simple way to get a decent event with just enough cold air around and a modest wave tracking underneath, but it's never that simple lol.

Realistically that is probably our first best shot at some frozen imo. I liked what I saw on the means this morning, and why I highlighted that period. Could very well end up another rainer ofc.

Pretty much the same here. Ground is frozen, ice on the creeks, and nothing in bloom. Did have some random clumps of spring grass popping up during the warm stretch, and some scattered low to the ground weedy growth, but nothing significant.

Way out there, but this is not too bad for the first week of Feb. Not spectacular, but ok for a long lead and esp given the minuscule chances for snow we have been seeing/continue to see on guidance.

In an overall mediocre pattern, this is a workable set up.

Agreed. Terrible place for snow tho most winters.

I definitely feel like I live in Salisbury this winter lol.