CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Looking at h5, the trough is just a tad flatter, and the downstream ridge is slightly less amped. Seems to be the difference this run, and allows a bit more of a thump further south. Maybe a mini trend as game time approaches?
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I took a peek this morning and the GEFS and EPS both have the AO trending towards neutral, and the NAO going slightly negative. Nothing is locked in up top though, and no signs of a sustained -AO or -NAO. Look at h5 on the 6z GEFS at the end, and the TPV is over Baffin with a ++NAO look.
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12z GEFS yesterday had an impressive signal for snow for the 25th-30th period. Since then it has deteriorated significantly. The general pattern being advertised is pretty decent overall, but there are little "flaws" showing that shift around between model cycles.
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All these maps do is remind me that I live 150 miles too far south for snow 90% of the time.
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There is stuff growing in my yard...in mid Jan. <45 days until met Spring!
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Schreck et al.
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Pretty significant improvement on the 12z GEFS for the 25-30th window.
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Higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes rather than lower heights(ideal) is the biggest issue with this threat at as depicted at range. The track is about perfect, and everything else is decent enough, and there is plenty of time for features to get tweaked a bit, hopefully in the favorable direction.
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Would take some serious deamplification to get the mid level flow back where we need it. No signs that is happening at this point, but I am sure it isn't a meteorological impossibility!
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I hear ya. At this point I am just going to watch and see how the new long wave pattern actually establishes beyond this weekend. Hopefully we start to see more hits pop up on future runs. I think the +heights in central Canada will build further NW going forward. Can start to see that occurring towards the end of the 0z GEFS run.
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We are talking about means at range dude. The overriding theme on all guidance, including the CFS, is the improvement on the PAC side with the PNA and the EPO going forward. As you know, classically good looks that show up at D15 rarely look the same on a mean when that gets inside D10.
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That is surely the reason why this now looks bleak. That, and that alone caused this storm to trend from an intrinsically bad set up where the models at range had everything going right, to what is now the most likely outcome with a surface low tracking to Toronto.
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More likely with the pattern change barely underway for this coming weekend. There is a bit of a signal for that period, although it could be colder. Plenty of time.
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This looks like a 'much better pattern' than the garbage one we have had the past 2+ weeks to me, and pretty much matches what has been advertised across guidance lately.. We will have to wait and see if the upcoming period produces any significant snow, but this is an h5 look that could get it done.
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Column looks good for that area in southern/eastern PA. Most of that would be snow, although a good amount of it would be low ratio stuff with some sleet if this verified verbatim.
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A chase would have been nice, but my expectations going back a week or so was that we would be back in the game for the last week or so of the month. That still looks good. If this works out, it is a bonus given it is literally occurring at the initial stages of a significant pattern change.
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Last winter. Maybe not much below, but solidly below and esp wrt to areas nearby. Failed pretty much every way possible given the opportunities.
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The goal is a "nearby" chase. If this goes to complete crap and ends up being exclusively a NY state/NE deal, I will stay home, enjoy my 20 mins of sleet, and drink high gravity stouts.
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Looks like I will set my sights on Lancaster now. Probably be Mt Pocono in another run or 2.
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This is generally my feeling. Some say bring the qpf and take their chances on cold. Ofc this is completely an IMBY game, and if ya live on the coastal plain, having an antecedent cold air mass in place is usually key to getting a legit snow event.
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Luckily the GFS depiction of the baroclinic zone being in the vicinity of Bermuda is probably not correct lol.
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My initial chase plan is Gettysburg. Subject to change based on future runs.
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Thump is legit. Pretty close to 12z.
