CAPE

A snow ob. 2 words.. The thought of it makes me cringe lol

None of those are 'the one'.

Time to switch to coffee stout. It's whats for breakfast!

So who is gonna be that guy- the one that utters the most obnoxious phrase in snow obs history..

Still an interesting h5 look for mid to late next week on the EPS. Overall days 7+ will have cold around, SE ridge weakens then disappears, and the boundary is further SE. Seeing indications of more coastals on the EPS ens members through the D 7-12 period. GEFS also looks cold, and from day 7 on has +precip anomalies along the Gulf and SE coast, and slightly negative departures MW and Ohio Valley.

33/14 Let it thump

I worked yesterday, so I will take my holiday tomorrow and watch whatever stuff happens to fall from the sky. Hopefully some will be snow.

Just add those 3 totals and divide by 10 and that gives you a general idea of what fell in your yard back then.

Mentioned it this morning after the 0z run. Looked Miller B-ish to me on the mean and glancing through the members. Its a ways off, so this may evolve, but this period looks kind of interesting to me.

Yeah and its not out of nowhere. Been seeing it on op runs for days now, and recent runs of the GEFS have been suggesting it. I know the period has looked a bit dry on the ensembles, but like I said earlier, it will be March, so get cold intrusions like that and storms usually come.

Lol.. Damn. I was just wearing my weenie hat- the one that says MARCH SNOW SUCKS IT MELTS AN HOUR AFTER IT STOPS. One of Ji's favs.

Look up north at all the 1037Hs lined up. I think the Army of the Dead is coming.

Agree. I still think next week might surprise.

Ok snow on snow is acceptable. I would forgo the brutal cold for that. Two snowstorms then it can go right to 70.

Me too. But only if it is followed by 5 days of frigid cold with no melting.

So relaxing- no hand wringing over every model run- when expectations are reasonable given the set up. Pretty sure all guidance still has 1-2" for my yard, then rain.

Of course you didn't have time. Or any interest. Trolls don't need to read for context.

You can say that about most events in this region lol.

There have been 2 general setups like this one going back to mid Nov, and both resulted in a half inch of frozen here. This setup is a bit different, so an inch would be nice, but I have no expectations as it completely depends on how quickly the precip arrives/overcomes the dry air, and how heavy it gets at that time- and models are not in agreement on that. Beyond the first few hours its a quick flip to sleet then plain rain here. If the initial thump maximizes, then maybe the 2-4" call by Mount Holly might work out. eta- I expect the Watch to go to an advisory here later today. This clearly looks below the threshold for a warning.

I was literally just looking at that exact panel lol. Pretty good look, and I kinda like the mid week period next week for something. Ens mean is hinting at some sort of a miller b deal around then.

Outside of areas in N MD and S PA, the 6-8 snowfall forecasts in the metros seem(ed) a tad bullish. The warming aloft is real, and without the ideal front end thump, those amounts likely wont be realized. I did a point and click around the DC area and noticed the 3-7" snowfall forecasts. Its a pretty good "cover your ass" call. So if its ends up 2-3, all good. But if its more like 6-7 or even 8, still a good call.

Well yeah, if the FGEN forcing doesn't maximize over this area- could happen more to the SW or the NE, or just be generally "spotty" in our region- then the cold column might be wasted with hours of light to moderate snow that doesn't amount to that much in a lot of places.

Same here. One thing I'm not gonna be doing- and it may be somewhat different where you are- is hoping this event will "over perform" to make up for that, so to speak. These types of setups typically disappoint outside of the favored areas west of the fall line. This seems to have a bit more potential than the usual west track/CAD deal however. It is somewhat unique compared to other similar events in my mind.

I would just about kill for 2-3" of snow.

4 inch per hour rates! Calm down lol.