CAPE

Not sure about this. I thought the EPS was showing small signs on the Pac side(trending towards a neutral PNA), and made several posts about it. Showme and Chill were seeing signs as well. I felt we could be back into a pretty favorable pattern beyond the 20th. That looks to be on track at this juncture. Lets see how it evolves/how long it lasts. We simply cannot know.

Yeah there are many great ones. I love early progressive rock bands- Rush and Yes are 2 of my favorites. Also a big Tool fan, which is harder, but still prog.

There are always "issues" when it comes to snow chances in the MA, outside of the highlands. Once in a while it all comes together though, and it's magic.

Based on recent history, this is probably the best we can hope for. If the -EPO is legit and sustained, the AO wont be super positive, so if we can get some well timed bootleg negative NAO periods, there will be a chance or 2 at a bigger storm that doesn't cut.

Yeah Limelight is up there for me too.

Getting back to Rush, probably my 2 fav songs of theirs are Red Barchetta, and Tom Sawyer.

Drinking The Calling DIPA from Boulevard. Pretty darn good stuff. Only tried their stouts up until now.

Nice day today. Took a break from model watching and went to Terrapin Park. Some ice would have been nice, but still pretty, and I picked up some cool driftwood to add to my collection.

Pink Floyd Dark Side of the Moon was also great, and the debut album by Boston was one of the best ever- the whole damn album. Tom Scholz was a genius. Second album was pretty good, and the third was decent.

Defo one of the best.

Yep I saw them there a couple years later I think.

My first concert with the older kids when I was 15. First contact buzz. A few mins later, my first joint.

Lots of moving pieces. Very hectic run. That upper level energy above the lakes got pinched off between the ridge over Hudson and the ridge building northward over the Canadian Maritimes, and then it phases with the energy moving underneath from the central US. The blocking(such that it is) was just getting its act together, and if you look at the panels beyond this one, you can see that piece of energy pretty much moves ENE, with the ridging over the top also in motion moving up into GL. To recap- the pattern is not blocked up(yet) and the UL energy is not cutting up into a 'log jam'. And none of this matters because it is an op run and the next cycle will bear little resemblance to this progression lol.

Also a coupled PNA/EPO ridge.

Maybe. Yeah I know that hill too- It sticks out because there is nothing but flat all around it, esp driving up from the south. Now that I know about where he lives, that is a dead zone in many cases for snow. Not sure what the 'new' averages are, but going by the old NCDC 30 year avg for snowfall into the early 2000s, the annual avg snowfall for that area is about the same as for mine. Do you know where I can access the latest climo data? NCDC used to have a really cool searchable database to find climo data for cities/towns. eta- I found the data tools for 1981-2010 'normals', but it no longer has snowfall data. I recall being able to find annual avg snowfall for practically any town years ago.

Not to nitpick, but there are higher spots in N DE near the PA line. A few locations over 400 ft.

That's a nice spot, and I also like the areas around Canaan, and western MD. A bit too remote though. I really do like Vermont, NH, and Maine. I particularly like coastal Maine for its beauty and somewhat 'milder' climate, and still snows a lot.

Yes that may be the case. I didn't look at the 0z GEPS, but the op run was clearly getting the cold in earlier and favoring low pressure to our south/southeast late next week/weekend. I did live up there for 10 years until work required me to move to the nearly snowless lowlands. I did find a spot on the interior upper part of the peninsula away from the bays and removed from the immediate coast, so it isn't awful all of the time. A move north is likely in the near future. But not merely to the northern edge of the subtropics where you are, I am talking NORTH.

No shortage of trackable chances. Lets just hope one or 2 remain legit inside of 5 days.

You mean this? Lol I was just looking at it. Interesting, but not sure we would have enough cold air in place at that time.

I also like the EPS and even though verbatim it is a nice look for SNE next weekend, it is not far off at all from being a good outcome for our region.

It is a bit yes. That being said, this is occurring at the time of an *apparent* significant change in the pattern, and it is still a week out. There are likely going to be some changes. Absolutely would not be surprised if things are being rushed a bit, and nothing of consequence(frozen) happens next weekend.

6z GEFS looks good to me.

Its right. Gfs caved and was always bs How did it cave? It's but another op run, and the same idea is there. Still a snow-ice to rain deal. A bit less of a front end thump this time.

0z CMC has the arctic air dumping further south and east into the center of the country by next weekend, with some moderate cold bleeding south and east of that. Develops an initial wave that moves along the front with a rain/snow mix for our area, then as the colder air gets further entrenched on the east coast on Sunday, it develops a low along the coast to our SE and snows on NC and SE VA.