CAPE

SC climo.

"It can't get any worse than last winter".

I am not as smart as he is, but my thoughts have been that Jan is our best shot for cold air outbreaks, with a possible +PNA and or -EPO. I expect a big fat zero irt help in the AO/NAO domain, minus some very transient bootleg ridging(fake -NAO).

Love good guitar bands too. This is my fave song from Boston,. Great acoustic intro, and one of the greatest guitar outros of all time IMO.

I enjoy all that stuff, plus Soundgarden, Pearl Jam etc. as well as the newer alt rock bands. Still love me some SOAD too. Nu Metal!

You couldn't pay me enough to be in those crowds, covid or not. The Cure? New Order? I love the Killers and Strokes, who were largely inspired by New Wave/post punk.

Jake Tapper on CNN has scolded them several times today for not distancing. Just did it again in the last 5 minutes. That being said, Biden needs to say something tonight.

Yes it will be. I stated this a few times itt, and just my opinion- our best hope for occasional cold air intrusions probably lies with the orientation/ placement of the EPAC ridge. Hopefully ridging can establish towards the EPO domain for a time. Maybe we see a few transient -NAO episodes, but given the run of +AO/NAO winters we are on, and other factors that aren't necessarily favorable, it's difficult to be optimistic about the development of persistent HL blocking this winter.

The TPV is much more influential on sensible weather. We can go an entire winter with little to no connection between the SPV and the TPV. I think sometimes it is forgotten that these 2 features are entirely separate entities. Probably not likely to see a sustained -AO if the SPV is unperturbed, but it certainly does not preclude blocking episodes and cold air outbreaks. We had plenty of "visits" from pieces of the TPV during the winter of 2013-14, and it had everything to do with the sustained -EPO/WPO, and little to nothing to do with the state of the SPV.

Monday edition of Euro Weeklies is out. Freebie h5 panel for Nov 30- Dec 7:

It just seems endless.

BWI: 10.7 DCA: 7.9 IAD: 9.5 RIC: 4.5 SBY: 4.2

The November edition of the CanSIPS is out. Pretty meh overall, but not as bad as last month. Typical boilerplate Nina look with little to no help in the AO/NAO domain. December and March have the "better" h5 looks. Positive temp anomalies throughout.

Been tracking this for awhile on the extended GEFS and EPS weeklies for mid to late Nov. Good to see it showing up on recent op and ens runs now that they are in range. The look on the12z run today would probably suppress the storm track so far south we would miss all the cold rain.

In theory, without considering other factors, it would be "better". We really want the forcing to be a bit further west/further east though.

Not much group think here. Might lean towards weenie think lol, but overall I think we have a pretty nice exchange of information and independent/objective contributions wrt possible outcomes for the upcoming winter. I read the CWG article that included your general thoughts, so please expand on those itt.

Yeah we had a 'snow drought' until the cold powder event at the end of the month ( a fav of mine) but it was hardly a torch lol.

The only concern in my mind is if the SPV remains strong and begins to couple with the troposphere and eventually we end up with sustained lower heights down toward the surface. If that sort of thing happens in the Fall it can become a fixture for winter.

Fwiw, GEFS/extended GEFS still depicting increasing h5 heights up top in about 2 weeks.

Damn, the opinions of BAMWx got some people shook.

I'll go with DT's ideas for the upcoming winter.

That oddity in the regular cycle in 2016-17 really stands out. Makes one wonder if that sort of thing will become more prevalent. I suppose it could have simply been related to the strong Nino during that period, or maybe a sign of things to come.

That tends to be the case with the "legit" blocking winters. Doesn't mean we can't get some HL help though. SPV is not likely going to be disturbed in the near term based on current forecasts. WAFz looks minimal over the next 10 days. Unless the SPV becomes becomes a persistent, giant blue ball of death over the coming weeks and couples to the troposphere, there is still the possibility of HL + h5 heights developing towards the end of November as the long range GEFS and EPS are suggesting. Time will tell, as always.