CAPE

I much prefer snow to frigid and dry. That being said, I do like seeing frozen ponds/rivers and in some cases, even the bay. I like hiking out in the cold, on frozen ground. Wouldn't want a 2 week icebox with no precip though.

Did have the original 'bomb cyclone' during that period though. I know it sucked for I-95 and west, but that was my favorite chase to date, at the beach. Legit blizzard there. Ended up with about 6" at my house and it stuck around for 5 days before significant melting.

lol I was looking for one of those F U memes when he posted that.

I think you missed the context, but ok. Why PG anyway? We have 13 year olds up in here?

He was flipping off the MJO forecast. Pretty appropriate response.

CFS still on-board for a general cold pattern beyond the first few days of Feb. Driven by a +PNA initially, then by the big EPO ridge we keep seeing advertised on LR guidance- that ultimately fails to materialize. Maybe it will this time.

"Just bring the precip and I will take my chances". Doesn't work without cold air, and there is no legit cold air mass in sight going forward. Well, maybe in about 15 days...

Okay.......

Not trying to be mean dude, and Psu's response pretty much nailed it. "Over the top" analysis is not intended to, and cannot possibly, yield anything. You don't make many posts. Try harder when you do.

When I see his posts what usually comes to mind is how damn useless they are.

At least in my recent travels, I have seen some "shallow" winter. Dec 17-20th out in the high spots near Boonsboro then up into the Catoctins. A crusty inch with plenty of ice on top. My trip to Lancaster and points north featured plenty of cold, some light sleet/snow coverings and lots of small glaciated piles and icy patches. I stopped at Terrapin on my way home today and did a brisk walk, and the creeks/inland waters were iced over. Nothing on the bay ofc. You take what you can get in a crap winter. Still enjoyable being out in the cold, even if it is fleeting.

Glass half full interpretation. Roll this forward and there is a favorably located -EPO, +PNA, and a neutral NAO. Problem is the last time I looked a few days ago, LR guidance looked pretty much the same out west. The idea of moving towards a better pattern kinda seems stuck around day 15.

I haven't been paying much attention lately(deliberately) but a quick glance and not much seems to have changed in the LR. Still trying to kick out the AK vortex and replace it with a ridge. Maybe an attempt to shift the +heights over eastern Canada up into the NAO domain, but that's 15 days out and it looks weak. Basically, the pattern still looks hideous for snow chances in the MA outside of the far western highlands.

It will probably look good until mid June, then the high sun and competition from all the trees will cause it to deteriorate.

I thought last winter sucked- totaled slightly more than 12" imby. I mostly complained about it because of all the different ways events managed to under perform. Would take a miracle to get a foot at this point. Still less than an inch here.

Maybe it will start on Feb 15. That happened once.

Gonna check out some nearby towns today- Lititz, Ephrata, and a vineyard or 2. Might go to the Welsh Mountain area. Let me know if there are any "must do" places to go/see.

Looks pretty good for out there in the highlands with temps just cold enough for snow at this point. Not sure how the rest of the region stays cold enough upstairs, and surface temps are also mild. Probably the best chance of frozen would be at onset for places east of the mountains, then maybe at the very end. With the depicted h5 look, there is just not a lot of cold air around.

Hanging out in Pennsylvania Dutch country around Lancaster for a couple days. Drove through some snow squalls yesterday.

EPS still has the AK trough at the end of its run. Maybe it will begin to show some signs in the next few cycles. It's quite possible the GEFS/GEPS combo are again on the wrong track. At this point I am not too enthused about possible coastal storms producing snow over the next 10 days. Folks further inland/at elevation probably have a different perspective. Hopefully a -EPO period materializes sometime in Feb.

At the very end of the 6z GEFS run, the AK trough flattens and it looks like the beginning of another attempt to build a ridge in the EPO space. GEPS does this sooner. Something to watch.

The 'pattern change' was advertised, but the guidance in the LR didn't have it quite right apparently. We were briefly teased with good to epic looks, but once again reality is something much different. Not as bad as where we were 2-3 weeks ago, but still a generally bad look for MA snow chances. We can only hope the models are as wrong now with the currently advertised pattern. I kinda doubt that is the case though. Like Bob said, seems winter has shown its hand.

Tracking low pressure areas near or along the east coast on the ens means will most likely be an exercise in frustration for the foreseeable future. While we will overall have "normal" temps, the air mass is of Pacific origin. The combo of a +AO and esp the AK vortex, will torch Canada, relatively speaking. Add in the TPV sitting in the NAO space, and any legit cold air is bottled up well north. Always possible to luck into something frozen in late Jan, but the pattern over the next 10 days, as advertised, is not favorable for snow. Pretty good for 35-40 degree rain though. Depicted 850 temp anomalies approaching the end of the month. Still looks like crap.

Things look less bleak, but still not good for snow chances. Two things of note looking at the advertised LR pattern from today's runs, subject to change ofc(for better or worse) are hints of a PNA ridge, and currently not seeing any signs of persistent SE ridge. Maybe a trend towards lower heights to our NE, but its way out there. Everything else pretty much totally sucks lol.

I am with Bob. Disinterested at this point. I will keep a casual eye on the means, but the way the next week or so looks, I may start to root for futility lol. Probably be two thirds through met winter without breaking an inch in my yard.