CAPE

The NAO 'goes like +2' every winter. Not interesting. Now a -2 otoh..

So you are predicting a neutral-slightly negative NAO overall for the winter months?

That is one impressively large area of "warm" 2m temp anomalies. Not sure I would pay much attention to that 4-6 weeks out. Advertised h5 height anomalies are probably marginally better at that range, but still plenty of uncertainty.

Pretty decent fwiw. I tend to take a peak at the week beyond D15, just to see how things look. All low skill at that range ofc. Latest Euro weeklies are meh, at least from what I can glean from the really bad h5 graphics on the freebie site. Probably similar enough to the GEFS for the first week or so of Dec, but has at least some weak ridging in the east.

QBO phase influences the strength of the SPV. The impacts it has on the stratosphere do not necessarily couple down to the troposphere. The TPV and SPV are distinctly separate entities.

Here we go. This is our chance to thread a needle. (Please disregard surface temps)

That new line along the bay died out apparently, and then another one got going SE of here. Nothing noteworthy, just 0.14" of rain and a few gusts of maybe 40.

It's coming for your yard.

Temp up to 67 here.

I hope not. The wind has dried out the driveway quite nicely.

It has the precip max over my yard ofc lol.

I strongly agree with this. Every so often you say something that makes sense.

Latest from Mount Holly- A cold front is surging through the Ohio Valley, where a convective band has developed. With 50-70 kt low-level winds, the convection has easily mixed severe-caliber wind gusts to the surface in portions of Indiana and Ohio late this morning, and convection-allowing models (CAMs) indicate maintenance of this convective band all the way to the East Coast through the evening hours. Meanwhile, in advance of the front, strong southerly flow has developed, with diabatic heating sufficient to mix these winds to the surface. Widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph should be expected during the afternoon across the area, with locally stronger gusts at the coast. Current wind advisory looks sufficient in accordance with this threat (and with the subsequent post-frontal winds during the late evening; see below). There should be a relative lull in wind gusts after 4 pm as diabatic heating wanes (and before the front arrives). Based on CAM guidance, the convective band should generally reach the area in the 22z to 03z time frame. Strong wind gusts are likely in association with downward momentum transfer via the precipitation-cooled downdrafts. With winds aloft in the 40-60 kt range, expect decent coverage of strong to damaging gusts. SPC has increased the Day-1 convective outlook to a slight risk, which appears quite reasonable. Given the impressive dynamics of the system, shear is off the charts (0-6 km bulk wind difference 80+ kt). Combined with strong lift along the front (in the virtual absence of ambient instability), convective organization is likely to be maintained through the CWA during the evening hours. Little or no lightning is expected with the convection given the unfavorable buoyancy profiles, but this most certainly will not limit the wind threat posed by the convection.

Hard to argue. Not much to be optimistic about, other than dumb luck. We due!

SSW talk is usually a hail mary. Bad sign if this is seriously being discussed at this juncture.

Extended GEFS looks similar for early Dec. It had this look for mid to late November then lost it. Keeps kicking the can on any decent HL look. We will see. At best it will probably be a period of transient ridging(bootleg -NAO) IMO. If something like this were to verify, it might give us some seasonably chilly weather for a stretch, but given the look in the EPAC/N of AK, the air mass would be more Pacific in origin.

Well this is probably how it will go. A few relatively brief cold periods with maybe some luck. Or not. We are streaky with the luck part.

Latest EURO weeklies (crappy freebie) panel for the day. Weekly mean h5 height anomalies, for Dec 7-14. FWIW.

That sorta matches the current CFS runs, which have kicked the can from previous runs depicting Dec into January being more favorable.

Eh, you will see 10-12" by accident there.

Your yard or mine? Even my yard I wouldn't take the bet though lol. I think I had 0.8" last winter.

You don't think I know this? That is a quote representative of the consensus, not me lol.

Need to find me some WWS for winter. Probably will pick up a few 120s while they are still around.

SC climo.