CAPE

SSW talk is usually a hail mary. Bad sign if this is seriously being discussed at this juncture.

Extended GEFS looks similar for early Dec. It had this look for mid to late November then lost it. Keeps kicking the can on any decent HL look. We will see. At best it will probably be a period of transient ridging(bootleg -NAO) IMO. If something like this were to verify, it might give us some seasonably chilly weather for a stretch, but given the look in the EPAC/N of AK, the air mass would be more Pacific in origin.

Well this is probably how it will go. A few relatively brief cold periods with maybe some luck. Or not. We are streaky with the luck part.

Latest EURO weeklies (crappy freebie) panel for the day. Weekly mean h5 height anomalies, for Dec 7-14. FWIW.

That sorta matches the current CFS runs, which have kicked the can from previous runs depicting Dec into January being more favorable.

Eh, you will see 10-12" by accident there.

Your yard or mine? Even my yard I wouldn't take the bet though lol. I think I had 0.8" last winter.

You don't think I know this? That is a quote representative of the consensus, not me lol.

Need to find me some WWS for winter. Probably will pick up a few 120s while they are still around.

SC climo.

"It can't get any worse than last winter".

I am not as smart as he is, but my thoughts have been that Jan is our best shot for cold air outbreaks, with a possible +PNA and or -EPO. I expect a big fat zero irt help in the AO/NAO domain, minus some very transient bootleg ridging(fake -NAO).

Love good guitar bands too. This is my fave song from Boston,. Great acoustic intro, and one of the greatest guitar outros of all time IMO.

I enjoy all that stuff, plus Soundgarden, Pearl Jam etc. as well as the newer alt rock bands. Still love me some SOAD too. Nu Metal!

You couldn't pay me enough to be in those crowds, covid or not. The Cure? New Order? I love the Killers and Strokes, who were largely inspired by New Wave/post punk.

Jake Tapper on CNN has scolded them several times today for not distancing. Just did it again in the last 5 minutes. That being said, Biden needs to say something tonight.

Yes it will be. I stated this a few times itt, and just my opinion- our best hope for occasional cold air intrusions probably lies with the orientation/ placement of the EPAC ridge. Hopefully ridging can establish towards the EPO domain for a time. Maybe we see a few transient -NAO episodes, but given the run of +AO/NAO winters we are on, and other factors that aren't necessarily favorable, it's difficult to be optimistic about the development of persistent HL blocking this winter.

The TPV is much more influential on sensible weather. We can go an entire winter with little to no connection between the SPV and the TPV. I think sometimes it is forgotten that these 2 features are entirely separate entities. Probably not likely to see a sustained -AO if the SPV is unperturbed, but it certainly does not preclude blocking episodes and cold air outbreaks. We had plenty of "visits" from pieces of the TPV during the winter of 2013-14, and it had everything to do with the sustained -EPO/WPO, and little to nothing to do with the state of the SPV.

Monday edition of Euro Weeklies is out. Freebie h5 panel for Nov 30- Dec 7:

It just seems endless.

BWI: 10.7 DCA: 7.9 IAD: 9.5 RIC: 4.5 SBY: 4.2

The November edition of the CanSIPS is out. Pretty meh overall, but not as bad as last month. Typical boilerplate Nina look with little to no help in the AO/NAO domain. December and March have the "better" h5 looks. Positive temp anomalies throughout.

Been tracking this for awhile on the extended GEFS and EPS weeklies for mid to late Nov. Good to see it showing up on recent op and ens runs now that they are in range. The look on the12z run today would probably suppress the storm track so far south we would miss all the cold rain.

In theory, without considering other factors, it would be "better". We really want the forcing to be a bit further west/further east though.