CAPE

I strongly agree with this. Every so often you say something that makes sense.

Latest from Mount Holly- A cold front is surging through the Ohio Valley, where a convective band has developed. With 50-70 kt low-level winds, the convection has easily mixed severe-caliber wind gusts to the surface in portions of Indiana and Ohio late this morning, and convection-allowing models (CAMs) indicate maintenance of this convective band all the way to the East Coast through the evening hours. Meanwhile, in advance of the front, strong southerly flow has developed, with diabatic heating sufficient to mix these winds to the surface. Widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph should be expected during the afternoon across the area, with locally stronger gusts at the coast. Current wind advisory looks sufficient in accordance with this threat (and with the subsequent post-frontal winds during the late evening; see below). There should be a relative lull in wind gusts after 4 pm as diabatic heating wanes (and before the front arrives). Based on CAM guidance, the convective band should generally reach the area in the 22z to 03z time frame. Strong wind gusts are likely in association with downward momentum transfer via the precipitation-cooled downdrafts. With winds aloft in the 40-60 kt range, expect decent coverage of strong to damaging gusts. SPC has increased the Day-1 convective outlook to a slight risk, which appears quite reasonable. Given the impressive dynamics of the system, shear is off the charts (0-6 km bulk wind difference 80+ kt). Combined with strong lift along the front (in the virtual absence of ambient instability), convective organization is likely to be maintained through the CWA during the evening hours. Little or no lightning is expected with the convection given the unfavorable buoyancy profiles, but this most certainly will not limit the wind threat posed by the convection.

Low of 36 here. Currently 39 as the sun comes up.

From Mount Holly AFD regarding convection/wind potential tomorrow- As the aforementioned shortwave trough passes quickly to our north into the afternoon, heights will be falling rapidly (as will surface pressure) and widespread rain showers are expected to develop. These convective showers could help mix down some of the stronger winds from the developing low level jet. However the main feature of interest from a convective standpoint is the potential for power showers, or a power squall, to develop along the cold front as it passes quickly across the region from west to east. The primary timing of this appears to be the 4 PM to 8 PM time frame. Dewpoints will be surging quickly to near 60 degrees ahead of the cold front allowing for a brief window of MLCAPE in the 200-300 J/kg range. Guidance is notorious for under forecasting dewpoints/low- level moisture profiles in these regimes, so I tend to think dewpoints and CAPE values will be at least slightly higher than guidance currently suggests. This combined with ample forcing aloft, boundary parallel effective shear of about 45 kts, and strong low- level kinematic fields will support a line or broken line of convection along or just ahead of the cold front. This line may be capable of mixing down wind gusts on the order of 50 kts, which may prompt the issuance of a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. And yes, a few rumbles of thunder are possible as well. This setup remains quite marginal from a severe convective potential, but we will continue to evaluate.

Hard to argue. Not much to be optimistic about, other than dumb luck. We due!

SSW talk is usually a hail mary. Bad sign if this is seriously being discussed at this juncture.

Over 61" here for the year. The lower part of my blue stone driveway is a mess. I am going to try and patch it up for now with some bags of paver base and gravel, even if it doesn't match lol.

40 was the low here.

A mild deluge is more like it.

Lowest temp here was 35. May have been a few places that got to 32-33, but not a hard freeze.

Extended GEFS looks similar for early Dec. It had this look for mid to late November then lost it. Keeps kicking the can on any decent HL look. We will see. At best it will probably be a period of transient ridging(bootleg -NAO) IMO. If something like this were to verify, it might give us some seasonably chilly weather for a stretch, but given the look in the EPAC/N of AK, the air mass would be more Pacific in origin.

Well this is probably how it will go. A few relatively brief cold periods with maybe some luck. Or not. We are streaky with the luck part.

Latest EURO weeklies (crappy freebie) panel for the day. Weekly mean h5 height anomalies, for Dec 7-14. FWIW.

Ended up with 2.9". Not much additional rain today thankfully.

That sorta matches the current CFS runs, which have kicked the can from previous runs depicting Dec into January being more favorable.

2.68" here so far. Looks like another half inch or so today.

Eh, you will see 10-12" by accident there.

Your yard or mine? Even my yard I wouldn't take the bet though lol. I think I had 0.8" last winter.

You don't think I know this? That is a quote representative of the consensus, not me lol.

0.66" here so far. Just showery now. Still looks like 2" or so with the next wave. Hoping for an under-performer again. Leaves everywhere!

Need to find me some WWS for winter. Probably will pick up a few 120s while they are still around.

SC climo.

"It can't get any worse than last winter".

Lost a lot of leaves the past couple days here. I will have plenty of work after the rain, some wind, and by the time it all dries out enough for the blower to work well. Got about an hour in yesterday with super dry leaves when I got home but the sun goes down early these days.