CAPE

Latest from Mount Holly- A cold front is surging through the Ohio Valley, where a convective band has developed. With 50-70 kt low-level winds, the convection has easily mixed severe-caliber wind gusts to the surface in portions of Indiana and Ohio late this morning, and convection-allowing models (CAMs) indicate maintenance of this convective band all the way to the East Coast through the evening hours. Meanwhile, in advance of the front, strong southerly flow has developed, with diabatic heating sufficient to mix these winds to the surface. Widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph should be expected during the afternoon across the area, with locally stronger gusts at the coast. Current wind advisory looks sufficient in accordance with this threat (and with the subsequent post-frontal winds during the late evening; see below). There should be a relative lull in wind gusts after 4 pm as diabatic heating wanes (and before the front arrives). Based on CAM guidance, the convective band should generally reach the area in the 22z to 03z time frame. Strong wind gusts are likely in association with downward momentum transfer via the precipitation-cooled downdrafts. With winds aloft in the 40-60 kt range, expect decent coverage of strong to damaging gusts. SPC has increased the Day-1 convective outlook to a slight risk, which appears quite reasonable. Given the impressive dynamics of the system, shear is off the charts (0-6 km bulk wind difference 80+ kt). Combined with strong lift along the front (in the virtual absence of ambient instability), convective organization is likely to be maintained through the CWA during the evening hours. Little or no lightning is expected with the convection given the unfavorable buoyancy profiles, but this most certainly will not limit the wind threat posed by the convection.

Hard to argue. Not much to be optimistic about, other than dumb luck. We due!

SSW talk is usually a hail mary. Bad sign if this is seriously being discussed at this juncture.

Extended GEFS looks similar for early Dec. It had this look for mid to late November then lost it. Keeps kicking the can on any decent HL look. We will see. At best it will probably be a period of transient ridging(bootleg -NAO) IMO. If something like this were to verify, it might give us some seasonably chilly weather for a stretch, but given the look in the EPAC/N of AK, the air mass would be more Pacific in origin.

Well this is probably how it will go. A few relatively brief cold periods with maybe some luck. Or not. We are streaky with the luck part.

Latest EURO weeklies (crappy freebie) panel for the day. Weekly mean h5 height anomalies, for Dec 7-14. FWIW.

That sorta matches the current CFS runs, which have kicked the can from previous runs depicting Dec into January being more favorable.

Eh, you will see 10-12" by accident there.

Your yard or mine? Even my yard I wouldn't take the bet though lol. I think I had 0.8" last winter.

You don't think I know this? That is a quote representative of the consensus, not me lol.

Need to find me some WWS for winter. Probably will pick up a few 120s while they are still around.

SC climo.

"It can't get any worse than last winter".

I am not as smart as he is, but my thoughts have been that Jan is our best shot for cold air outbreaks, with a possible +PNA and or -EPO. I expect a big fat zero irt help in the AO/NAO domain, minus some very transient bootleg ridging(fake -NAO).

Love good guitar bands too. This is my fave song from Boston,. Great acoustic intro, and one of the greatest guitar outros of all time IMO.

I enjoy all that stuff, plus Soundgarden, Pearl Jam etc. as well as the newer alt rock bands. Still love me some SOAD too. Nu Metal!

You couldn't pay me enough to be in those crowds, covid or not. The Cure? New Order? I love the Killers and Strokes, who were largely inspired by New Wave/post punk.

Jake Tapper on CNN has scolded them several times today for not distancing. Just did it again in the last 5 minutes. That being said, Biden needs to say something tonight.

Yes it will be. I stated this a few times itt, and just my opinion- our best hope for occasional cold air intrusions probably lies with the orientation/ placement of the EPAC ridge. Hopefully ridging can establish towards the EPO domain for a time. Maybe we see a few transient -NAO episodes, but given the run of +AO/NAO winters we are on, and other factors that aren't necessarily favorable, it's difficult to be optimistic about the development of persistent HL blocking this winter.

The TPV is much more influential on sensible weather. We can go an entire winter with little to no connection between the SPV and the TPV. I think sometimes it is forgotten that these 2 features are entirely separate entities. Probably not likely to see a sustained -AO if the SPV is unperturbed, but it certainly does not preclude blocking episodes and cold air outbreaks. We had plenty of "visits" from pieces of the TPV during the winter of 2013-14, and it had everything to do with the sustained -EPO/WPO, and little to nothing to do with the state of the SPV.

Monday edition of Euro Weeklies is out. Freebie h5 panel for Nov 30- Dec 7:

It just seems endless.

BWI: 10.7 DCA: 7.9 IAD: 9.5 RIC: 4.5 SBY: 4.2