CAPE

TBD.

au contraire. I am very stable and level headed. Despite living in a place that blows for snow chances, I track on, contributing for the greater good.

Yeah this is an interesting question. I think most people have an idea or perception of what is favorable for winter weather- for most here that means legit snow chances- and ofc what is considered favorable varies based on specific location within our region, as factors like physical topography/proximity to water/UHI lead to disparate local climates over relatively short distances.

Other more established(knowledgeable) posters have said the same thing. @WxUSAF comes to mind. Mersky seems to have a need to brag about "predicting" something he likely read multiple times elsewhere.

I will answer this wrt occurrences in the troposphere, because thats what we are concerned with as it directly impacts sensible weather. It's pretty common during winter for vortices to shed off and rotate southward in the troposphere, especially when a ridge builds up into the HL region. You can see this on the 6z GFS panel that Ralph posted with that big anticyclone building in the EPO region. Better yet go and advance through the run at h5 and you can see the process occurring. Models do ok with predicting them, but getting the timing and depth correct is difficult at range.

A raging +AO is almost certain death to snow chances around here. If we end up with sustained +heights in the EPO/WPO space, it would be difficult for the AO to be severely positive though. A neutral to somewhat +AO is probably what we are looking at going forward.

I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. Last 2 runs of the GEFS don't look quite as good in the HL region as the 18z h5 map I posted last night, but still acceptable. If you look at the teleconnections, interestingly the most recent runs of the EPS and GEFS both have the AO trending very close to neutral by day 15. Not sure if that works out, but if the AO is going to have a tendency to be in the positive phase, we need the EPO ridge to be as advertised on recent runs(strength and position) and become a sustained feature going forward.

So now the gefs looks better than the eps haha..its like a tennis match Yeah and if that HL look is legit, there will be a series of cold fronts moving through and the tendency for eastern ridging will be replaced by a mean trough.

Looking better and better up top. TPV displaced southward and ridging building over GL. Got the EPO ridge going a bit bonkers too.

The too little, too late snow is falling here now. Finally kicked that LL warm air out. 33 now. Maybe a trace. Woop.

Judah never predicts winter will end. He is busy figuring out another creative way to take credit in case things do flip, despite his theory failing yet again.

I was never expecting more than an inch, even with the best of runs over the past few days. After last night/this morning's runs, it was clear a few mangled flakes would be a win here.

Yes, and to them I said congrats. Also, a lot did not. Don't be so dense.

Okay, Yoda. What's your point?

Never overlook a bad setup with no antecedent cold, and with no mechanism to deliver cold. In a bad overall pattern for snow, anyone outside of the higher elevations to the west who received an inch, congrats.

How difficult is it to post an image right side up? I have never had an issue myself. I think I tweaked my neck a bit.

Yeah the radar looks great. Too bad there is no cold air around. Down to 40 here as well, 0.15".

Super fast mover. That and LL temps have been the biggest issues since this became a legit "threat" imo.

I really want a DFH 120 right now to help me forget the horror that this storm has become. If only wetbulbzzz88888 had told me sooner that my yard was out, I could have mentally prepared myself.

You in DC bro? Anyway I concur. DC likely wont see 4".

Latest NAMs like DC area. Seems to align with current radar.. Even throws places east of the bay a bit of a bone.

The weeklies from yesterday might provide a hint as to where we go going forward. If you haven't taken a peak, it looks familiar.

43 and the rain has begun here. Damn what happened to that 27 degree temp and low dewpoint from this morning? LL ESE winds FTL. Congrats NW folks.

Its coming.