CAPE

How is this relevant? Give me some hard numbers, not anecdotal crap. And not some puny data set, either.

October is not a winter month. Wrong thread.

You might as well stop monitoring this. It is clear where it is heading as we move into winter. There is nothing particularly good that can result from this, esp in a Nina.

That is simply a function of a smoothed mean. The primary takeaway on that panel is the location of the average positive and negative h5 height anomalies for the month. You cant just ignore the colors and focus on the height lines. The +(-)heights generally correlate with the temp anomalies at the surface. I wont bother posting that panel- you can imagine what that looks like lol. Clearly these models are not very good at this range, so hopefully that area of +heights in the PAC ends up parking further NE, shifting the phase of the longwave pattern some. That would suppress the SER and give us a better chance for cold air delivery here.

That is a pretty terrible look for a LR h5 height anomaly mean. But sure, its a smoothed mean, so there would obviously be some perturbations in the overall pattern. Big picture is crap though. The CFS, CanSIPS. JMA, etc, might all have the wrong idea at this juncture, but it fits recent winters, and is characteristic of Ninas in general. It really is all about the placement/strength/orientation of the Pacific ridge. If we luck into a legit HL block, even if the EPAC ridge parks in an unfavorable location as currently advertised, the impact could be mitigated somewhat.

That' is typical. It will eventually hone in on the most likely solution though. It has pretty much been the only climate model pushing a half decent Pacific and favorable HL look.

CFS seems to be off the crack and now looks pretty much identical to the CanSIPS for early winter now.

Its not decadal. Unless you mean we see a -NAO an average of once a decade lol. That's probably about right over recent decades. There may be some cyclical nature to it, but with a longer period. The NAO has been predominantly positive since the early 1980s. The 40-50 year period preceding that, there were more negative phase years than positive. IIRC, the frequency of ++NAO years has increased since the early 1990s. Somewhere in this thread I posted a long term time series of the NAO phase (or maybe it was the AO) for the winter months. I cant find it atm. There is a significant correlation between the AO and NAO though. A legit -NAO (not transient bootleg crap) typically occurs when the AO is negative.

We should be beyond the point of having to use disclaimers on this stuff,, but the climate models are what they are, and ofc we are looking at projected mean patterns. No, we should not expect wall to wall winter(probably ever), but otoh, there will likely be a few weeks within climo winter with some cold and chances for winter weather, even in an overall crappy pattern.

The October (full edition) of the CanSIPS is now out. Looking at the monthly h5 height anomalies, it is pretty much a dumpster fire for DJF. The EPAC ridge is a one eyed pig throughout, but gets worse for Jan and esp Feb. Eastern ridge, and no help up top. Temp anomalies for DJF-

CFS continues to be pretty gung ho on HL blocking for winter, with the Pac looking decent for December. Even when it gets pretty ugly by Feb, a -NAO saves us from an all out torch. Fwiw ofc.

Curious to see what the new 500 mb anomalies look like. Probably be available in 2-3 days.

Nice post. Good info. You could have been a lazy, useless turd like Mersky, and weenied or laughed at his post, as he always does, but ofc, that's not you. That's him.

Where's that Prince emote? lol This was posted on the previous page, and yes interesting stuff.

I see what you did there. Its early, so visions of a Nina with blocking are still dancing in weenie heads.. It wont be long before every piece of guidance known to man shows a massive blob of blue up top. It will be all the sweeter. Patience.

Yeah, well proceed with caution lol. We have seen plenty of advertised good looks up top in the LR in recent winters and outside of something transient/bootleg, it never materializes. But given we are just about to October, and we are seeing some 'decent' signs, there is time for a bit of optimism before all hopes and dreams get crushed. And ofc there is the WDI. Oh and solar min. And smoke/ash!

And the latest CFS runs look like this for November. Matches his composite for November preceding those winters pretty well. Who knows if it has a clue- but it has been pretty persistent in hinting at HL +heights for Fall lately.

That's what I said- Transposed.. switched...inverted.. wrong phase.

Once we get into winter with Nina atmospheric response, all those pretty colors will be transposed.

I get that. Just playing devil's advocate a bit. We always want HL blocking, regardless of ENSO state. It greatly increases the odds of significant snow events for this area. A favorable EPO is probably second after a -AO/NAO, as we get big cold air delivery and even without much help in the NA, we can snow.

If you live in the MA outside of the microclimate areas in the western highlands, lower the bar for "good" winter when we are in a Nina. Median snowfall should be the "goal". After last winter, a 10" total for DC/BWI would seem epic. Ofc there is always luck.

The h5 look leading up to the coastal blizzard of Jan 2018, aka bomb cyclone. Driven by a very favorable Pacific during that period. Defo a +NAO.

Gotta be careful with that "we" thing! Again, the 2 most recent Ninas both produced big snow events in early Jan(of '17 and '18) for eastern areas, with a pretty crappy look up top. Just saying, it can happen. In general, yes, we need a decent HL look(AO/NAO) for significant snow down here in a Nina, but the same can be said in most cases even in a Nino, and especially for the lowlands.

Dude, we agree on the blocking lol. No worries. Where we differ, I think, is on expectations. Most of us here know that the bar is always lower going into a Nina. So like I said, a "good" winter, during a Nina, is mean snowfall, give or take. If the requirement for a 'good" winter is above average snow, well that is not likely in these parts without some blocking, and esp in a Nina winter. People would be better off hoping for median snowfall in general. More realistic these days.

Remember, there really is no "we", especially during winter.