CAPE

True, but it does happen. Remember the NC snowstorm a few years ago while we were smokin' cirrus?

They both "mean something". You have to keep in mind it is a super LR mean- a monthly mean at that. I pay more attention to the height anomalies on these panels, as it is indicative of where the features of interest may set up in general. Outside of a super blocked up pattern though, clearly there will be some shifts in the location and intensity of the + and -height anomalies.

This is probably the sort of look we have to "hope" for. Latest CFS h5 mean for December. Maybe if the PDO goes positive it can aid in sustaining an early winter PNA-ish ridge for a while before the pattern retros and turns to complete suckage. Just a bit of help up top here too. Fwiw, CFS looks decent for Jan as well. All the usual disclaimers apply.

I took a peek at the monthly h5 means posted in the NE thread. December isn't that bad, with a west based -NAO, and the Pac ridge s/w of the Aleutians' has not yet become an absolute monster. Most likely the NAO would just keep us from torching, but if that PAC ridge is not yet a fixture and/or is positioned a bit further NE, ya never know. Verbatim that would probably produce for central and northern NE.

The CFS yo-yo is back to advertising a general h5 pattern for winter that could certainly tease, and likely never deliver.

I am down for this. Need to get acclimated to the new normal. Resistance is futile.

Just saw this thread on the character of the Nina from HM.

I am gonna beat Mersky to the punch, and give you a weenie here. Make that multiple weenies.

How is this relevant? Give me some hard numbers, not anecdotal crap. And not some puny data set, either.

October is not a winter month. Wrong thread.

You might as well stop monitoring this. It is clear where it is heading as we move into winter. There is nothing particularly good that can result from this, esp in a Nina.

That is simply a function of a smoothed mean. The primary takeaway on that panel is the location of the average positive and negative h5 height anomalies for the month. You cant just ignore the colors and focus on the height lines. The +(-)heights generally correlate with the temp anomalies at the surface. I wont bother posting that panel- you can imagine what that looks like lol. Clearly these models are not very good at this range, so hopefully that area of +heights in the PAC ends up parking further NE, shifting the phase of the longwave pattern some. That would suppress the SER and give us a better chance for cold air delivery here.

That is a pretty terrible look for a LR h5 height anomaly mean. But sure, its a smoothed mean, so there would obviously be some perturbations in the overall pattern. Big picture is crap though. The CFS, CanSIPS. JMA, etc, might all have the wrong idea at this juncture, but it fits recent winters, and is characteristic of Ninas in general. It really is all about the placement/strength/orientation of the Pacific ridge. If we luck into a legit HL block, even if the EPAC ridge parks in an unfavorable location as currently advertised, the impact could be mitigated somewhat.

That' is typical. It will eventually hone in on the most likely solution though. It has pretty much been the only climate model pushing a half decent Pacific and favorable HL look.

CFS seems to be off the crack and now looks pretty much identical to the CanSIPS for early winter now.

Its not decadal. Unless you mean we see a -NAO an average of once a decade lol. That's probably about right over recent decades. There may be some cyclical nature to it, but with a longer period. The NAO has been predominantly positive since the early 1980s. The 40-50 year period preceding that, there were more negative phase years than positive. IIRC, the frequency of ++NAO years has increased since the early 1990s. Somewhere in this thread I posted a long term time series of the NAO phase (or maybe it was the AO) for the winter months. I cant find it atm. There is a significant correlation between the AO and NAO though. A legit -NAO (not transient bootleg crap) typically occurs when the AO is negative.

We should be beyond the point of having to use disclaimers on this stuff,, but the climate models are what they are, and ofc we are looking at projected mean patterns. No, we should not expect wall to wall winter(probably ever), but otoh, there will likely be a few weeks within climo winter with some cold and chances for winter weather, even in an overall crappy pattern.

The October (full edition) of the CanSIPS is now out. Looking at the monthly h5 height anomalies, it is pretty much a dumpster fire for DJF. The EPAC ridge is a one eyed pig throughout, but gets worse for Jan and esp Feb. Eastern ridge, and no help up top. Temp anomalies for DJF-

CFS continues to be pretty gung ho on HL blocking for winter, with the Pac looking decent for December. Even when it gets pretty ugly by Feb, a -NAO saves us from an all out torch. Fwiw ofc.

Curious to see what the new 500 mb anomalies look like. Probably be available in 2-3 days.

Nice post. Good info. You could have been a lazy, useless turd like Mersky, and weenied or laughed at his post, as he always does, but ofc, that's not you. That's him.

Where's that Prince emote? lol This was posted on the previous page, and yes interesting stuff.

I see what you did there. Its early, so visions of a Nina with blocking are still dancing in weenie heads.. It wont be long before every piece of guidance known to man shows a massive blob of blue up top. It will be all the sweeter. Patience.

Yeah, well proceed with caution lol. We have seen plenty of advertised good looks up top in the LR in recent winters and outside of something transient/bootleg, it never materializes. But given we are just about to October, and we are seeing some 'decent' signs, there is time for a bit of optimism before all hopes and dreams get crushed. And ofc there is the WDI. Oh and solar min. And smoke/ash!

And the latest CFS runs look like this for November. Matches his composite for November preceding those winters pretty well. Who knows if it has a clue- but it has been pretty persistent in hinting at HL +heights for Fall lately.