CAPE

EPS has been ever so slowly trending towards a neutral, and possibly a +PNA over recent runs. Good sign.

3km NAM looks a tad different, and more believable.

NAM is LOL. That will be 90% rain on the eastern shore, esp the lower shore. Might be some wet flakes at some point but this thing is going to be racing through and redevelopment will be mostly offshore. AND no cold air to work with.

12z GFS looks impotent.

Milton, DE for a tour of the DFH brewery it is!

Yup. Unfortunately I gave up my SRT. But driving a leased Overland with all the creature comforts and a powerful(relatively speaking) V6 ain't too bad either.

I still can. Gettysburg!

I have time off work, and I do mini road trips all over this time of year. Given the absolute shiit pattern coming up, yeah I could definitely work it in to my plans.

I am still considering it. My hesitation is the high bust potential no matter where the "jackpot" is, as it is a marginal event in coverage, qpf, and temps. 3km suggests I should head towards Rehoboth lol.

lol check out the 3km NAM. The NAMs are so utterly useless at this range.

The low track is further SE on the 12k NAM and is a bit stronger, so if it went that way it could work out. It is a compact storm so not likely to make everyone happy.

lol too bad it's the 12k NAM. When the EURO has that outcome I will be interested.

There is still a weak signal for something around the 17th on the GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS. Something to keep an eye on, as beyond the next few days there probably wont be much winter weather to be tracked for a while.

Picked up 0.87" of rain over the last couple days. 1.62" over the last 7 days.

The totality of his contributions: He is more useless than snow88.

^ Not sure that would help. The air mass in place ahead of the storm isn't very cold- the cold temps in the AM are a function of long night/radiational cooling. The only high pressure around is a weak ridge moving off the east coast- that is not good for cold air advection. Look up north - nothing but low pressure. So temps will warm as the storm approaches and starts to deepen along the coast. The low level 'cold' comes in behind with the deepening trough, but it is a relatively low qpf, short duration event, so its too late for the lowlands. Pretty textbook for some modest wet snow for inland/elevated areas as currently advertised. eta- if the low is a little deeper/slower, and tracks a bit more to the SE, there could be a better outcome, as showme discussed in his post earlier.

At least you have a short drive up the mountain if it fails in your yard. I drove up to Washington Monument State Park back before Xmas and it was a winter wonderland above 1000 or so feet.

Looks like a rainy game too. Both teams like to run, and so it will come down to which D can get the other team's O off the field, and turnovers. Titans are a tad scary to me, because they do play smash mouth, and are playing loose. That being said, their Dean Pees led defense ranked 21st this season, and the Ravens should be able to move the ball effectively and control the clock.

^6z Euro is a tad south and colder. Probably some good snow tv to a light coating along I-95 verbatim. Nearby mountains and the hills up near PA line are clearly in the best position to pick up a couple inches.

@showmethesnow Did I mention I am considering a chase of this meager snow event? Your house looks like a good locale. Looking forward to 'celebrating' while sipping on a bourbon barrel aged WWS. I can direct you where to go for the acquisition.

2 big problems with this event for decent accumulations- bad set up for getting the surface cold enough- outside of dynamics, which could happen given the latest trends- and it's a fast mover. At this point there is a decent chance some places NW of the fall line will see a solid coating to a couple inches. The trend towards a deeper system could up that potential. I see no shot for the coastal plain unless there are some dramatic changes. Surface is simply too warm.

Towards D15, the latest EPS and GEPS are still showing signs of slight improvement on the Pac side, especially the EPS, and have +heights from Scandinavia building into GL, the GEPS in particular. GEFS looks more bleak, and suggests we have a long, long way to go.

Sounds awesome!

Super progressive flow. No chance for this to take up residence long enough to do any damage. Probably snow tv at best.

18z GFS is further south, colder 850s, but still weak sauce precip and warm surface.