CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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No need. He is a pompous azz and he isn't fooling anyone here. LOL 30 year met.
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Might not work out. Who is doing the hitching here? Apparently you love the advertised EPS h5 look- at least enough to troll PSU.
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Latest EPS MJO forecast in the LR- after briefly getting into phase 7, wave dies out then looks to re-emerge in phase 5/6. That wont help much.
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You claim you are a met right? Then you understand climo. NE doesn't need all the stars aligned to get a good result.
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Check this out. Good overall presentation on NAM/ENSO/NAO and solar activity, and specifically addresses the solar/NAO correlation. Probably not what many would expect over the long term. http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
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-(-NAO)
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Despair has descended upon the snow starved weenie masses in earnest.
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It's not the dry air- that could actually help if the front end precip came in hot and heavy. If the best lift is delayed(or mostly north), the strong warming aloft/retreating cold air mass means time is not on your side.
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This was a fun thread that evolved from some goofy thread Tenmen started. Was back when we still had cold, active winters- I think it was 2013-14, but could have been the following winter. I bumped it a couple years ago but not much interest. Despair had taken root and become the source of poetic creativity.
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Shall we bring back the epic poetry thread?
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Looking at h5, the trough is just a tad flatter, and the downstream ridge is slightly less amped. Seems to be the difference this run, and allows a bit more of a thump further south. Maybe a mini trend as game time approaches?
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I took a peek this morning and the GEFS and EPS both have the AO trending towards neutral, and the NAO going slightly negative. Nothing is locked in up top though, and no signs of a sustained -AO or -NAO. Look at h5 on the 6z GEFS at the end, and the TPV is over Baffin with a ++NAO look.
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12z GEFS yesterday had an impressive signal for snow for the 25th-30th period. Since then it has deteriorated significantly. The general pattern being advertised is pretty decent overall, but there are little "flaws" showing that shift around between model cycles.
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All these maps do is remind me that I live 150 miles too far south for snow 90% of the time.
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There is stuff growing in my yard...in mid Jan. <45 days until met Spring!
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Schreck et al.
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Pretty significant improvement on the 12z GEFS for the 25-30th window.
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Higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes rather than lower heights(ideal) is the biggest issue with this threat at as depicted at range. The track is about perfect, and everything else is decent enough, and there is plenty of time for features to get tweaked a bit, hopefully in the favorable direction.
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Would take some serious deamplification to get the mid level flow back where we need it. No signs that is happening at this point, but I am sure it isn't a meteorological impossibility!
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I hear ya. At this point I am just going to watch and see how the new long wave pattern actually establishes beyond this weekend. Hopefully we start to see more hits pop up on future runs. I think the +heights in central Canada will build further NW going forward. Can start to see that occurring towards the end of the 0z GEFS run.
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We are talking about means at range dude. The overriding theme on all guidance, including the CFS, is the improvement on the PAC side with the PNA and the EPO going forward. As you know, classically good looks that show up at D15 rarely look the same on a mean when that gets inside D10.
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That is surely the reason why this now looks bleak. That, and that alone caused this storm to trend from an intrinsically bad set up where the models at range had everything going right, to what is now the most likely outcome with a surface low tracking to Toronto.
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More likely with the pattern change barely underway for this coming weekend. There is a bit of a signal for that period, although it could be colder. Plenty of time.
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This looks like a 'much better pattern' than the garbage one we have had the past 2+ weeks to me, and pretty much matches what has been advertised across guidance lately.. We will have to wait and see if the upcoming period produces any significant snow, but this is an h5 look that could get it done.
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Column looks good for that area in southern/eastern PA. Most of that would be snow, although a good amount of it would be low ratio stuff with some sleet if this verified verbatim.
