CAPE

For here: HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with 45 to 55 mph gusts. * TIMING...A surge of winds late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening may result in gusts up to 55 mph. Another round of strong winds is expected to affect the area late Sunday night through Monday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ground is quite saturated, and rainfall this weekend, generally ranging from 1 to 1 1/2 inches will add to this. It will not take much wind to result in downed trees and power lines.

^ Not bad for a day 10 mean.

@psuhoffman Right on cue, check out the uptick on the EPS snowfall mean for that period.

Other than too dry/suppression issues, I would suspect you're correct.

Yeah baby! Even the lack of NA blocking doesn't bother me with that look. WA ridge is waaay east.

And there would be a lot more time spent out in it, enjoying it, rather than constantly poring over models, desperately looking for the next chance of a few inches, and then all the hand wringing that goes along with the bust potential even at game time. Also more time for going to brew pubs and stuff, with a snow covered landscape.

At this point I can get into the "go big or go home" concept. I kinda need it here to make this winter memorable- well other than it being remembered for being a big ass dud, lol.

Its a rainy, dreary day. Working on a Saturday afternoon sipper. DFH WWS.

I agree, but kicking the can in March is pretty chancy. It is what it is though. If what the Euro is advertising towards D10 today is real, I am all over that.

This is exactly what I was discussing this morning in my reply to Ji. I was using the EPS and h5, but its the same "trend" with the tpv.

I just walked out onto the deck in my underwear and socks. Chilly day.

Yes it is. I am not giving up on that period at all. Its a week away lol. Heck the late week period still might produce a little something. I was just pointing out the differences on the guidance from a few days ago, which imo, might bode well more so for the following week. One thing is for sure, there will be more changes on the upcoming model cycles.

I was replying to Ji's "what happened to early March?" post. I was illustrating what I think has changed in the guidance for the first threat window in early March. Not sure it's a "step up" when we had a look that was advertising coastal lows with snow, and now we have a different advertised h5 look with more cutters showing up for the same period. eta- I think PSU was making more of a general observation, and you are sort of misrepresenting it in the context of my post.

Well yeah, that's the point lol. We all are. Was looking at your previous post, which is all well and good, but what happened to the next Saturday deal? I used the EPS in my original post, but probably easier to see it on the GFS/GEFS- but go back 3 days when it had the nice coastal for the 2nd and compare it to the most recent runs. That was a nice set up on the means, and the op runs were spitting out a coastal snowstorm. H5 is not as favorable for that period now. It has degraded!!. Soo.. now we are on the the next D10 threat.

Lets see how things progress over the next few runs. As I said in my initial post, its not a bad look at all, but I preferred the look from a few days ago. For it to snow here, I need a juiced up wave that tracks underneath or a coastal storm that tracks slightly east of the BN. Both of those options were showing up on guidance, and still are to some extent. Unless we have a pretty anomalous set up, in March, coastal huggers are mostly rain here (my yard), inland tracks are rain. I have seen enough failed west track/retreating cold/CAD setups this winter lol. Bottom line is I am probably looking at/evaluating the guidance and what is being advertised a bit differently than some others here, especially you northern hinterland people.

Cold patterns tend to be overdone on the guidance in the long range. Given we will be in March, I want to see the ensemble guidance continue to advertise the more 'extreme' solutions, because we know what we end up with will fall well short of that. I don't "fear" cold and dry, or suppression, or OTS in March. If it happens, so be it. The most likely outcome is cold and wet, despite tracking all the "good looks".

The "50-50 low" showing up on the mean is actually a series of lobes rotating up through that region, and they are trucking along with not a hint of blocking over the top. Without some sort of phase, it will probably come down to timing of those vortices as they rotate down, with some moisture from a ss wave. Seen that before right?

No its not bad, but in general the TPV is weaker on recent runs and doesn't rotate down as far in the east(anomalous cold focused further west). On the second image. there looks to be a stretching of the lower heights to the SW under that EPO ridge and a trough forms off the Pac NW. I want to see the NS energy more consolidated on the means and dig, dig, dig! south. This is March, not January lol.

There is still some potential for next weekend on the mean(cluster of lows of the NC coast), but the better chance is probably early the following week at this point. FWIW that is when the snow mean ticks up.

In general, the really good h5 pattern the models have been advertising has incrementally degraded. It's still not bad, and I expect the ops will tease more in upcoming runs with something other than cutters, but moving into March we want something more on the anomalous side to get a good winter storm. Look at the difference on the EPS for next Sat from 5 runs ago. 5 runs ago the EPS looked like this- Now it looks like this- Good news is, the (useless) snowfall mean maps look a little better lol.

Gotta admit, I kinda chucked at this for some reason.

I couldn't care less if the roads are wet or snow covered. Not a schoolboy looking for early dismissal. If there is a foot of snow on all other surfaces and the roads are just wet, that's F'ing perfect. Well it would be without all the damn road salt.

RR trying too hard. Kraft is a scum ball. Enough said. NFL conduct standards- do they really apply to the owners the same as the players? They should be higher. We shall see.