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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. Canceling WB probably Monday. Its pretty much over, and I am totally fine with it. Seriously, I am looking forward to warm, even hot weather. This winter has been cold, wet, and dreary, but wholly unsatisfying because the overall pattern has sucked for snow. Esp for eastern areas. I wont buy into the widespread predictions for epic patterns so easily going forward. Was kinda dumb in retrospect. We all know the -NAO is an urban myth. Its like the white walkers. But who knows, maybe one day winter will come.
  2. I have 6 acres, and where the house is located is "high" and the soil is well drained. My driveway is a mess though, and there is a wetland back in the woods. Mosquito breeding ground in Spring.
  3. Might be a little on the light side, but temps are a factor. Definitely a more realistic look than the 12Km NAM.
  4. I just hope my yard sees the precip hole that has managed to occur every time it snows this year. I really don't need another inch of rain.
  5. The 18z ICON looks pretty reasonable to me. Has the heaviest snow NW where expected, and the snow maps seem indicative of lower ratios given the marginal temps.
  6. Well at least the 3km NAM seems reasonably sane. It is somewhat warmer aloft, and per the 10:1 snow maps it has the heavier snowfall clearly NW of the fall line, as expected.
  7. Minor changes, Yoda. That's not why the clown maps went nuts with the "snow".
  8. If he wanted to "show the changes", he would not lazily be posting the snow maps. If you look upstairs, there isn't much difference at all. Run-to run noise.
  9. Yeah I am totally buying the 5" it gives my yard in 3 hours, with the 850 mb 0c line right over me and heading NW. Those maps are terrible.
  10. Those snow maps are highly imperfect, and usually biased towards frozen on the edge imo. Probably will be pretty brutal because of the marginal surface temps and the warming at 850 mb at the height. The thing that might help those right on the line are heavy precip/dynamics. Hard to know how that will play out until game time. In this case it's probably wise to go with elevation, so if right on the fall line or east, keep expectations low.
  11. I will sleep like a baby tonight, lol. Speaking from lots experience this winter, anyone right near that 2" line on that tight gradient, it usually fails not in your favor.
  12. Start a thread. I am sure it would fill with posts from Ji and others who have 25- 30" of snow, complaining about all the cold rainstorms that could have been another 25-30.
  13. Probably too far east. The "part 2" of that storm was primarily focused on DC and points just west and north. I would guess 5-6" from that event.
  14. Was 34 and rain here, but I bet I got more than you. 0.77". Top that!
  15. I will likely relocate somewhere in the next 5 years, and I wish I could move it, because I cant find anything I like as much when I browse homes online.
  16. I am rooting for progressive and weaker so everyone gets cold rain like my yard is guaranteed to get. But then, I am a selfish dick. And bitter, very bitter.
  17. This winter has been a classic forum splitter. It has not been because of the typical temp issues for the most part, but rather odd dry holes/poorly modeled qpf, and late arrival in CAD situations with transient cold for eastern and even NE portions of the area. Everyone has endured too much cold rain, but the frozen events have all under-performed/minimized in southern and eastern areas, except for maybe the cold powder light snow event. I wonder how much snow the Annapolis area has had so far? I would guess not much more than 12". Yet not too far NW in Howard county it's pushing 30".
  18. 0.77" of 34 degree rain overnight. Cant wait for tomorrow night- should be a good inch of rain, with temps in the low to mid 30s. Has to be some sort of record here. Used to get 45-50 degree rainstorms. Actually, I am looking forward to a week of cold and dry. It will be a nice break before the next cold rain event towards next weekend.
  19. The Founders Breakfast stout is a good one and available all year. Another, more local, coffee stout is the Rise-Up from Evolution (Salisbury). Not sure how available it is up your way.
  20. Believe me I am not holding out much hope on this one. Gonna keep the incredible streak of cold rain events going. How is your stock of Imperial coffee stout looking?
  21. Overview from Mount Holly in their AM AFD: While there is still some uncertainty regarding the actual surface low track, the guidance has shifted more southeastward. This appears to be due to today`s storm getting a bit stronger east of New England, plus the 00z ECMWF in the northern stream presses the lead short wave farther east. This lessens the mid level divergence in the height fields and pushes more zonal thus keeping the southern short wave farther south (more toward the GFS solution). Other guidance is also a bit more south and east. This would tend to favor some colder thermal profiles, however a more southern track may also lessen the dynamic forcing to some extent especially the farther northwest one goes. Our region however is still forecast to get within the favorable right entrance region of a 250 mb jet. This will also help to strengthen the surface low as it tracks to our east. In addition, the incoming amplifying trough will produce a period of widespread large scale ascent, which will be augmented by a zone of stronger 850-700 mb frontogenetic forcing especially during the first half of Sunday night.
  22. I am ofc rooting for more of a GFS type solution, with a further SE track and later development. This type of evolution might get the mid levels cold enough for some snow here, probably towards the end of the event. Low probability though. Better chances along I-95.
  23. I actually still have snow on the ground from this morning. Well, with the high dews and drizzle, it's pure slush lol. update- steady light to moderate rain now, temp 34. Lookin' good for 2" of liquid by Monday!
  24. And oh yeah, almost forgot my ob! 34 and light rain.
  25. That winter, with the great blocking, it would start snowing with temps in the mid 30s, then steadily falling into the 20s, leading into the epic snow events. With the overall crappy h5 set up this winter, its been endless 33-35 degree rain, and usually rising temps. Putrid.
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