CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Totally agree. Way too much is made of sun angle too. Even if it snows in late Dec it rarely sticks around more than a few days because we don't stay cold that long, or it rains right after.
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I don't think this applies to everyone. I eat 2 "big" meals a day, and breakfast is not one of them.
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Yeah I am pretty freakish about my diet, even though I have never had a weight issue. Just makes sense to eat right to me. I stopped (intentionally) eating refined sugar years ago, and now if I have the occasional piece of pie or something around the holidays, I really don't even enjoy it. No sweet tooth at all. I believe in micro fasting, so I don't eat much of a breakfast- maybe some Greek yogurt or something with protein if I am going to workout before lunch.
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I was just out in the yard extracting dandelions. Good time to do it with the soft soil. I also took a walk back in the woods to check out my "seasonal" wetland, aka mosquito breeding ground. Surprisingly, nothing but one little puddle. It is usually well on its way to expanding into a 1/4 to 1/3 acre, 1 ft deep swamp by now. So now I am rooting for warm and dry. Evaporation and transpiration ftw.
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Delayed onset of mosquito season tops my list.
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I will add one thing to this. Exercise. Endorphins. Today will again feature no snow, but it's a damn near perfect winter day to get out to a state park or wherever and bike/hike, or just walk and breath in some fresh air.
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The GEFS has been showing signs of 'positive' change the last several runs. GEPS and EPS not as much. Sadly I think what is most likely to transpire is another failed attempt, with the PAC ridge ending up parked right where it has taken up residence for the last 2+ months. But we will have to wait and see. We truly cannot know.
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Yeah I mentioned that in my post above. It's the GEFS though. Not so much the EPS. Either way, we have seen this "attempt" many times over the past several weeks.
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It can work if this pattern breaks down and evolves to something more favorable- either the +AO relaxes or the Pac improves, or both. Otherwise March will be just like this, but even warmer.
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EPS is still pretty much a train wreck, although it looks slightly better towards D15. If there is a way out of this crap pattern, it wont come in the next 10 days (broken record). Maybe the last few days of February can be salvaged, otherwise March will have to be the savior.
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0z GEFS doesn't dump as much energy into the AK trough, then weakens and retros it in the LR. End result is a trough near the Aleutians and a very nicety placed PNA ridge and potentially active southern stream. There are -850 temp anomalies in eastern Canada and along the US east coast with no SE ridge. Not super cold but no torch either. This has been your daily glimmer of hope in this winter of doom. I am sure this is happening.
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Even if its a few hundred miles south. What a winter.
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I spent an hour in my muddy yard/flower beds today pulling out little weedy things- chickweed and stuff. Then I got bored and came inside for a beer. This winter is easily the worst in recent memory. Altho my memory sometimes fails me lol.
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NNE can still do okay. Otherwise, yeah. One day we(collectively) might all learn to stop hunting for snowstorms in patterns that are the antithesis of what is required for snow here. What fun would that be though?
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HH GFS has an impressive heavy rain band centered on I-95 late week. Cant wait! Yet another classic cutter after that. We are so locked in.
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The usual day or 2 of transient cold sure, but not cold leading in. A heck of a lot would have to change. Possible, but why would we think that would happen given the pattern persistence(+AO/+NAO/awful EPAC). The fact is that this is NOT a good set up, as currently advertised, for snow in this area. Frankly, it's terrible. A freaking disaster even. Georgia lucked out with a trailing wave. Could have been ours, but we cant seem to even sniff that this winter. Zero in the luck dept.
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Pretty much caved at 12z.
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Why the 20th? Kinda random. Pattern persistence would suggest it's over now(or 2 weeks ago). Otherwise, we are typically in the game through mid March.
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What a shock.
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The thing that will save us is a decent pattern- one that supports snow without requiring a hundred different elements in combination aligning perfectly in order for it to happen. Wait- never mind. That is the norm around here.
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I spent some time up there last Summer. Went to Mt Washington. I love that area too, and I have a buddy who lives in Conway. Also like a lot of places in Vermont. I need to get to coastal Maine soon too. I have a feeling that area is going to really click with me. Not opposed to heading across the border (legally) and settling in New Brunswick or Nova Scotia either.
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I really need to move. Might be able to make it happen in the next year. I am motivated.
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Anyone care about the XFL? Will the retread version last longer than the original?
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1/50 @ hour 300? Hot damn!
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Always possible the advertised existence/strength/position of the AK vortex is wrong.
