CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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The h5 look on the 6z GEFS is quite a bit different looking than what we were seeing just a couple runs ago for this same period. With this look I could see a wave ejecting and tracking underneath/staying suppressed. All comes down to timing as we know- with nothing to block the flow the cold is fleeting. Other issue is whether the lead piece is weak and strung out, while the main energy holds back. That would just give us another cutter as the high exits stage right.
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My shift has ended. My work is done. @WxWatcher007 I think my efforts are worthy of a bump in pay. I trust that the check will be in the mail in short order. Thank you.
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You northern Carroll county dudes must realize that there are only about 5 of you up there in your little micro climate oasis. The rest of us are mired in suck.
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Where? I haven't seen a flake since early Jan. Wait, that was a sleet pellet.
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Lets zoom out and objectively analyze what we see. Is this the look of a pattern that produces a snowstorm in the MA? I could make a strong case that this is the exact antithesis of the ideal pattern for snow. But..there is still a chance!!
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I think we all know this will fail one way or another. Its just how we roll this "winter".
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HH leaves the main southern energy behind this run. Big 1042 high overwhelms lol.
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I think he is returning from winter....to this.
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Its the same old broken record. Fleeting (marginal) cold with a possible storm developing in the southern plains. There is decent cold high pressure to the NE on this panel with some CAD, but its on the move. It's another thread the needle tease that will deteriorate in another few model cycles.
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It can. Confluent flow between 2 h5 ridges FTW. We score this way all the time.
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Don't do it. No one is that bored..
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There are like 2 members that have a suppressed wave.
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Perfect. I do my best work during happy hour. My devious creativity spikes during that period for some reason.
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Yeah to me it's value would be to act as a 'check' on the op, where the op could go off on a tangent due to the higher resolution.
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Why aren't you in the other thread breaking down the pattern and giving the weenie's hope for a random chance at frozen? Oh, that's right, you are working for him. Well I need pay increase then- look at all the good work I have done in there over the last 24 hours!
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My understanding of the control run is that it's essentially an unperturbed ensemble- it has the same initial conditions as the op, but is run at a lower resolution like the other ensemble members. Not surprising then that it could occasionally produce a different outcome than both the higher res op, and the perturbed ensemble members.
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The bottom line lol. With climo "normal" temps on the rise over the next couple weeks and no mechanism to deliver anomalous cold, there will still be plenty of days in the 50s.
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This says it all. All of the other key teleconnections are in the wrong phase as well. PNA flirts with neutral then goes back negative.
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EPS knocks down the eastern ridge, but the problem is the dominant feature remains the AK vortex. No real cold around, which has been the issue all winter. GEFS is the only one of the 3 that has a 'decent' look and some chilly air in the LR. The 6z run actually starts to look decent up top. The GEPS and esp the EPS aren't having any of that though, and for the most part our source region remains flooded with mild Pacific air.
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Steady, moderate rain here this morning. 0.75" since yesterday.
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There has never been any support on the ens. The advertised h5 pattern looks terrible for that period. Might be an opening around the 25th or so. Way out there.
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The parade of NW tracking storms has been unreal. Is KC close to a snowfall record? Seems like they have been in a sweet spot this winter. eta- I just checked and it looks like my perception is a bit off lol. Looks like they are just a tad above normal there.
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Finally! We got this. Cranky likes it.
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Some of us need consistency in our lives. This pattern definitely giveth in that dept.
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This period just screams potential. What a look.
