CAPE
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My area got nailed earlier in the month from multiple training t-storms with a frontal passage. Flash flooding with 4"+. Most places on the central/upper shore are probably 4 - 5" for the month.
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That's September lol. Each of the last 3, if not 4 months have been significantly above normal.
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Yet another super wet month here, going back to at least July. 8.68" to this point.
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Yours is coming As wet as it looks this week, and with the last section of grass germinated and coming up, I think my sprinkler will be retired for the year. If your yard somehow gets missed again, I will overnight it.
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Neither was Mount Holly lol. Up to 0.83" here.
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What, like a party with cakes and donuts? No, not my thing.
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Get your transmission back yet?
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The remnants of Beta behaving more like an Alpha here. 0.72" with another heavy shower rolling through. Hopefully its about done. It would be nice to salvage some of the day.
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Cancelling Halloween sounds like a great idea to me, but not because of covid concerns.. Kids don't need more encouragement to eat refined sugar. We lead the world in health issues exacerbated by chronically eating crap. Now here is one that makes zero sense. Friend of mine in the UK told me they are restricting private indoor gatherings to no more than 6 people(outside of family)- enforceable by penalty- yet all the pubs are open and usually jammed with people.
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0.60" here so far. Getting heavy downpours now. Wasn't really expecting this. even though most of the mesos yesterday did show a half inch+ here, the latest NAM runs backed off and had the better rains to my west. Official forecast was a tenth to a quarter.
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I see what you did there. Its early, so visions of a Nina with blocking are still dancing in weenie heads.. It wont be long before every piece of guidance known to man shows a massive blob of blue up top. It will be all the sweeter. Patience.
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It's a 120 Friday HH.
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Yeah, well proceed with caution lol. We have seen plenty of advertised good looks up top in the LR in recent winters and outside of something transient/bootleg, it never materializes. But given we are just about to October, and we are seeing some 'decent' signs, there is time for a bit of optimism before all hopes and dreams get crushed. And ofc there is the WDI. Oh and solar min. And smoke/ash!
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And the latest CFS runs look like this for November. Matches his composite for November preceding those winters pretty well. Who knows if it has a clue- but it has been pretty persistent in hinting at HL +heights for Fall lately.
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That was always the danger that winter with the big EPO ridge but no help on the Atlantic side. Anything that amped up was going to track west/inland. That one tracked right on the coast so it brought in a ton of warm air aloft for eastern areas.
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Went over to pure rain here after about 5" of snow. It was definitely not a good storm for most of the coastal plain.
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That's what I said- Transposed.. switched...inverted.. wrong phase.
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CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though.
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You just may have to wait for your November paste bomb to dent that dry spell.
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Once we get into winter with Nina atmospheric response, all those pretty colors will be transposed.
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I get that. Just playing devil's advocate a bit. We always want HL blocking, regardless of ENSO state. It greatly increases the odds of significant snow events for this area. A favorable EPO is probably second after a -AO/NAO, as we get big cold air delivery and even without much help in the NA, we can snow.
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If you live in the MA outside of the microclimate areas in the western highlands, lower the bar for "good" winter when we are in a Nina. Median snowfall should be the "goal". After last winter, a 10" total for DC/BWI would seem epic. Ofc there is always luck.
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The h5 look leading up to the coastal blizzard of Jan 2018, aka bomb cyclone. Driven by a very favorable Pacific during that period. Defo a +NAO.
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Gotta be careful with that "we" thing! Again, the 2 most recent Ninas both produced big snow events in early Jan(of '17 and '18) for eastern areas, with a pretty crappy look up top. Just saying, it can happen. In general, yes, we need a decent HL look(AO/NAO) for significant snow down here in a Nina, but the same can be said in most cases even in a Nino, and especially for the lowlands.
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Too warm. Bring back Fall.
