CAPE

Why aren't you in the other thread breaking down the pattern and giving the weenie's hope for a random chance at frozen? Oh, that's right, you are working for him. Well I need pay increase then- look at all the good work I have done in there over the last 24 hours!

My understanding of the control run is that it's essentially an unperturbed ensemble- it has the same initial conditions as the op, but is run at a lower resolution like the other ensemble members. Not surprising then that it could occasionally produce a different outcome than both the higher res op, and the perturbed ensemble members.

The bottom line lol. With climo "normal" temps on the rise over the next couple weeks and no mechanism to deliver anomalous cold, there will still be plenty of days in the 50s.

This says it all. All of the other key teleconnections are in the wrong phase as well. PNA flirts with neutral then goes back negative.

EPS knocks down the eastern ridge, but the problem is the dominant feature remains the AK vortex. No real cold around, which has been the issue all winter. GEFS is the only one of the 3 that has a 'decent' look and some chilly air in the LR. The 6z run actually starts to look decent up top. The GEPS and esp the EPS aren't having any of that though, and for the most part our source region remains flooded with mild Pacific air.

Steady, moderate rain here this morning. 0.75" since yesterday.

There has never been any support on the ens. The advertised h5 pattern looks terrible for that period. Might be an opening around the 25th or so. Way out there.

The parade of NW tracking storms has been unreal. Is KC close to a snowfall record? Seems like they have been in a sweet spot this winter. eta- I just checked and it looks like my perception is a bit off lol. Looks like they are just a tad above normal there.

Finally! We got this. Cranky likes it.

Some of us need consistency in our lives. This pattern definitely giveth in that dept.

This period just screams potential. What a look.

Because he needs to keep his snow weenie followers believing in something. These dudes are all the same.

Yeah I understand that. That panel you posted above is pretty ugly lol. Can't get much worse looking up top than that. Maybe going forward the look will improve, but the odds are not good. This pattern has been locked in. Persistence FTL.

Just cracked open a 2018 G.I. Bourbon County Stout for happy hour. My glass is more than half full, for now.

Probably a good time to stop looking at the LR. The likelihood of seeing any meaningful 'favorable' pattern change at this point is probably pretty low. If it's going to snow, it will be some lucky/fluky deal that pops up in the medium range. And yeah, shorter wavelengths might help even with the same general crap pattern. Cant forget to mention that. lol.

After looking at the 12z ens runs, I think my glass just went from half full to half empty.

I have been trying to find some glimmers of hope in the LR, and the GEFS has been somewhat teasing the idea of some improvement in the Pac with a possible PNA ridge, but I don't like today's run and the GEPS looks even worse. Looking again like this will be another failed attempt, as the more anomalous +heights are already slipping back into the central Pacific by day 15. EPS has not been enthusiastic at all and has been advertising a stronger AK vortex in the LR. Can see on this panel, 15 days from now, what is running the show. Look familiar? No legit cold even close. Looking more and more like it will be a lucky fluke or bust, maybe in early March.

Well yeah there is always that. I don't think I have been truly bored since i was 13.

Man I never get THAT bored.

If only people would stop engaging him in his circular "reasoning". PSU finally realized how futile it is. ( I think)

He would rather incessantly whine about it. We live in the subtropics. Need find a way to accept/embrace/cope with what comes with that. Anyone whose happiness/well being is largely dependent on cold and snow is seriously in the wrong place and needs to find a way to relocate elsewhere.

I noticed eps had some blue in the southeast around feb 20 At this point I am just monitoring the big picture LW pattern for possible favorable shifts. Too far out to get into details. We are stuck in the suck for at least the next 10 days in all likelihood. Problem with the EPS in the LR is it maintains a strong AK vortex that just pumps Pacific air into N America. No legit cold air even close to us at day 15.

Looks like a few days of cold and dry after a wet week, followed by maybe more rain early next week. Some signs of changes in the pattern beyond that though. Need the EPS to get a bit more enthusiastic about it.

GEFS has been incrementally trying to get to a more favorable pattern in the LR. This is a pretty decent look and would be workable. Still too much blue up top. Not super cold, but at least chilly. EPS persists with too much AK trough and mild air in our source region. GEPS looks kinda decent, but not as good as the GEFS- sort of in between the other 2. So as usual, we wait. At least there are some signs of possible changes.

There is a thread for posting random op run digital snow maps.