CAPE

Hope it works out. Btw my brother lives NW of Greensboro. Quite a storm there in Dec 2018. 14".

Yeah we are in the range now where we are not likely to see big changes. Looks like a pretty weak wave that will get kicked out without doing much damage, even for places further south. If I had to guess now I would say an inch or 2 for central/eastern NC would be the max.

I see 10 right off the bat that are 100% believable.

LOL. That 2018 storm was a true southern slider, and that's about the only similarity to what may happen later this week. That storm featured a juiced up wave moving into a much colder air mass with legit suppression, versus this weak strung out pos in a flat, progressive flow. That storm produced 10-15" of cold powder in central NC. At best this storm will produce a few sloppy inches in those areas. And yeah it is a long shot for our region, but still far enough out to monitor given some recent runs sharpening that vort. At best we are probably talking a period of light snow, maybe a coating, but we got little else to track in the next week to 10 days lol.

Me thinks he is trolling. And if he thinks the potential late week 'event' bears any resemblance to that ...

Not here. Dec 2017 we had a decent little event.

Except in July. Can never buy a raindrop then.

At this point the high bar is some light, insignificant snow from DC to Dover on the northern fringe. The max would be 1-3 inches down in NC to perhaps SE VA. This will not be much of a storm until offshore of the SE in all likelihood.

GFS is ever so slightly better. Probably noise.

Not as sharp/far west as the ICON at hour 72.

GFS looks a tad sharper at hour 60. Similar to the ICON.

This is what the GFS looked like at 12z. Lets see if it can do better for HH.

Yup. But its close. As was the EURO at 0z.

This is why the ICON looks good at the surface, and what I mentioned in my post above. This is the feature to watch.

This has never been more true than this winter. We have seen these advertised set ups end up working out great for N PA into NNE. In this case however, its hard to see how that happens. The flow is so progressive and flat, and the southern energy is on the weak side, with any significant development occurring offshore. Perfect set up for the MA to get screwed a different way lol.

For those holding out hope for late week, that stretched out vort max dropping down from Central Canada on Thursday is the feature to watch. It ultimately will act as the kicker, but if it digs a bit further west as it heads south, it can turn the flow a bit more ENE instead of due East. The runs that have been interesting, esp the 0z Euro and CMC, have this feature sharper and digging further west. It's a long shot for DC north any way you slice it, but there is a chance for southern parts of the region to get in on the northern fringe of the precip shield.

Y'all know how this early March 'cold' period is gonna go, right? Just save yourselves the misery and head on over to the Panic Room. Drinks are on me. The rest happens pretty quickly.

12z GFS still a whiff down that way, but it did actually take a step towards the other guidance at h5. Up here we are likely chasing a near hit at best. Maybe its a good sign that places south of here are being threatened with a little snow. I know that's in the weenie handbook somewhere.

Trend is sharper and further west with the NS 500 mb energy. Going to be difficult to get enough interaction with the ss before it gets shunted out. Looking kinda interesting for much of NC and SE VA now on recent guidance though..

ICON closer.

Yes later this week after the initial front comes through when the NS vort drops in with what looks like a reinforcing shot of cold- the period I was highlighting in my post above. NS much more pronounced(digs further south and west) on the Euro than the GFS, and ofc the CMC goes a little bonkers with it.

Yeah it just looks too warm out in front. Like you, I am waiting to see how things look beyond that.

@Weather Will You can see the difference here. The CMC is actually in a different world, and close to getting it done. Not buying that.

Given the look in the upper levels and the progressive nature, difficult to see this getting far enough north to have any notable impact in our region before getting shunted out. The NS energy dropping in is sharper on the CMC and EURO, but would probably have to come in even further west. Interesting "trends" though on some guidance, and maybe VA beach gets a glancing blow. I'm still good with the snow shower idea at this point.

It always has and continues to look like a warm storm on the means. Not really sure why anyone is expecting anything else at this juncture. It's the period beyond this that holds some potential, such that it is. Looks like a pretty brief window in early March for something, before the +AO/NAO goes bully again.