CAPE

This looks kinda familiar. Not exactly a winning look for March. Our "prime" window looks...brief.

Well, the look on the ens means are hardly inspiring if one is objective. Easy to see how the same results would occur overall. The random fluke could always happen though, as evidenced by the event we will all watch from afar over the next day or so.

This is one good effect of 'smoking cirrus'.

Have you found that WWS for 9 bucks yet? I know you would never 'splurge' if you had to pay 12.

Drinking a Gearhead Steve DIPA from True Respite. Good beer, and a cool name and art work. @losetoa6 should try this one. Esp since he is a gearhead from way back.

Might as well toss in another useless snow map.

+NAO does relax quite a bit towards the end of the month, but won't last very long as currently advertised. As has been discussed, there appears to be an opening during that period for a storm to take a more favorable track, and we are seeing hints on the guidance. 12z Euro op was interesting today for late next week, but the 12z EPS is unenthusiastic about the idea.

You decided to quote the post containing the useless snow maps, so we can all see them yet again, just to agree?

Wrong thread.

This is true, and why I chose it to troll ya.

I thought it meant overly exact or precise. Not necessarily a bad thing.

I got it. Showme can go on being pedantic.

I thought it looked like a 1-2" deal for east central NC a day or so ago, and I would say that still looks about right. Maybe an area of 3 or a tad more in the jack zone if some decent banding sets up. It wont be very cold on the front end and this thing wont be hanging around.

Nothing can save this winter in my mind. It has barely felt like winter, and for the past few weeks my brain thinks its March. I literally went to Lowes the other day to buy some outside plants, only to find that ofc they had nothing, lol.

Yeah it wouldn't take much at this point. Most places on the MA coastal plain including Philly are sitting at less than an inch.

Already hearing some around here.

Your attachments folder is probably at 100%. Delete stuff. Or... Copy and paste. I do it all the time.

I would have to go back and look but when i was still "interested" Monday and into Tuesday am, pretty sure the Euro was depicting 1-2" down that way. Maybe 12z yesterday was an off(drier) run. It has generally juiced up a little over the past 2 days for sure. This "cave" talk is mostly silliness though.

How exactly did the EURO cave? NAM is putting down ridiculous snow amounts. 0z Euro has a reasonable 1-4" verbatim.

Its ours. Nice fit.

Seems to be a bit of disagreement on the significance of the event. From Raleigh AFD- Snow amounts continue to remain highly uncertain in this event, however, thinking that raw model output remains way too high in this scenario. Several limiting factors remain at work, including: (1.) Persistent above freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the majority of the snowfall. The exception to the rule may be areas closer to the VA/NC border, however, these are the areas that will likely see far less QPF throughout the event (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not likely in an event like this, expect closer to 3:1 at precipitation changeover onset, 5:1 toward the middle of the event, and perhaps ending in vicinity of 10:1 if we are lucky. (3.) While the CAA process will be key in the original changeover, it will also become the ultimate limiting factor through the frozen ptype portion of the event. Gradual drying is expected to persistently take place in the lower-third of the boundary layer as the cold air slides south into the region. This will work to greatly reduce QPF from northwest to southeast in general. Higher amounts of QPF in the southeast will remain, however, dewpoints in the middle 30s will keep widespread snowfall accumulations from occurring. With these limiting factor in mind, have shifted the geographic location of accumulations a bit further north and west. Amounts are down a bit also with this run, topping out in the 1 - 2" range in northeastern Coastal Plain. From there, if you follow the US-64 further west, expect accumulations in vicinity of an inch with lesser amounts as you progress west of US-1 and south of US-64.

Productive LR discussion?

It has been a long time and they are rusty. Help them out.

We lookin' good overall.