CAPE

Shot of the storm approaching here from the end of my driveway. The rush of wind was impressive on the front end, and the power went out pretty quick. Just came back on after about an hour. Lots of tree debris and branches down but no major damage. Nice storm.

0.43" this morning, and 1.12" here since Sunday night.

Yeah lots of booming thunder here. Picked up 0.65" of rain.

Its great outside, considering what's on the way. 66 here with some sun at times but mostly cloudy. Nice ENE breeze.

Is there a category below garden variety? If so, that's what I had in my yard. Some brief, heavy rain, some T&L(mostly from the better storms to my south), and virtually no wind. Picked up 0.35" of rain though. Has gotten a tad dry here lately.

Interesting read from Mount Holly on the severe potential, and limiting factors: Although showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, will continue to be possible in the warm sector through the morning, the main round of storms we are concerned about are storms that are expected to develop along and ahead of the pre-frontal trough late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Some of these storms could be severe. Most models depict ML CAPE values near or above 1000 J/kg in the 21 to 00Z time frame along with 0-6km bulk shear values of 40 to 50 kt. Not only is this a significant amount of shear, but model soundings depict plenty of veering with height (especially within the first 3 km). This further enhances the risk that updrafts could be persistent. There are a few potential caveats. First, low/mid level clouds may not erode through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating (in anticipation that this may be the case, have gone with the cooler guidance for highs on Thursday), which would limit instability/CAPE values. Secondly, related to the first caveat, the NAM depicts a low level inversion (around 900 mb) which never fully erodes through the day (unlike the GFS which depicts this eroding between 21 and 00Z). Even if we are cooler and the inversion stays in place, I think we will continue to have at least some severe threat as lift along the trough could be enough to lift elevated parcels above the inversion. The final caveat is that remarkably, model soundings are depicting several dry (and one very dry) layers through the afternoon and evening. This means the LCL will be higher than normal, and will have an impact on the risk for wind, tornado, and heavy rain. Speaking of hazards: Damaging wind: This looks to be the primary hazard thanks to a low and mid level jet, and plenty of shear. The low level inversion mentioned above may limit how efficient the mixing is down to the surface, but the dry levels will help to increase the risk of downbursts thanks to an increased risk of dry air entrainment. Hail: Severe hail (1" in diameter or greater) is certainly possible, especially if we warm up as much as what the GFS is depicting and are able to realize the higher CAPE values. The highest threat for hail looks to be over Delmarva and far SE PA where the highest CAPE values are possible. Tornado: The veering wind profiles increase the risk for rotating updrafts. However, as mentioned above the LCL will be higher than normal which could limit the threat for tornadoes.

Yeah low 70s for a couple days then warming to the mid 80s by the weekend. Pretty dry overall. I won't be complaining.

Yellowstone is incredible. I went in July, so no weather issues. Was low to mid 90s with insanely low dew points, and mid 40s at night. I stayed at a ranch in Montana, not far from the park entrance. Love to go back in winter.

Good luck. Not much elevation anywhere in the state- around 800 ft in the NW corner is the highest I think. But finding a location further north and away from the coast will put you in a better spot for most events in winter.

I visited there years ago when my brother was stationed in Connecticut. Nice area. Are you living in Providence?

And our subtropical climate is abundantly apparent here this morning.

Picked up 0.15" of rain early this AM. Most of the thunder and heavier rain was off to the east. DE beaches getting some decent storms this morning.

Noticeably humid, but not uncomfortable. Temps are pretty pleasant. 76 here. Tomorrow, and esp Monday will be a different story. Looks like widespread mid to upper 80s on Monday.

If you are having issues with Spring mating territorial male cardinals/blue birds constantly banging into your windows and shitting all over the place, these "big eyed" balloons really do work. They are awesome. Other than the fact they might scare the hell out of you as well lol.

56 with a stiff breeze, some clouds and sun. Very nice March day!

Right now Wed through Friday look spectacular, other than a slight chance of afternoon/evening showers. Upper 60s to low 70s with plenty of sun.

Not complaining about the cool weather. There will be plenty of warm/hot/humid days in the near future. Would be nice to see a dry stretch while its still on the cool side though. 1.7" since Friday night. Rainfall total for May is now 4.3" here.

A cold, wet, miserable day. Stuck inside cleaning. Thank god for DFH 120 min IPA. 52 degrees. 0.80" of rain since last night(underachieved thankfully), and 3.65" for the month. How about a few days of dry and warm(not hot/humid) for a change? eta- despite the rain, we have had some stellar, cool, low dew days mixed in. I guess I prefer this overall to a switch right to warm/hot and humid. Would like to keep the rainfall to below excessive threshold though, as it is directly related to adult mosquito proliferation.

53 here this morning. Only 0.35" overnight. An under-performer. Perfect. Hopefully only another half inch max falls today into tonight.

Extremely nice day. Love it. Upper 60s, cool breeze. Mixture of sun and clouds. I can wait for the rain. Hopefully it holds off until around 11pm here.

This will be the winter where modeled sustained NA blocking will actually verify in real time. Feb looks especially delicious.

2.86" for the month so far. Plenty of rain, but not excessive. Hopefully it stays that way. So far the 2 rounds of larvicide have kept the adult mosquitoes at bay. Too much rain and the woodland wetland won't dry up, and I cant keep dumping pellets in there all summer. Stuff is expensive.

Picked up 0.6" overnight in a torrential downpour.

Thankfully it disintegrated as it moved east. I will be happy to see a maximum of an inch over the next few days.

Looks like we are in for a little rain. Since EJ did his usual Eeyore, its a virtual lock. Widespread heavy rain.