CAPE

This has never been more true than this winter. We have seen these advertised set ups end up working out great for N PA into NNE. In this case however, its hard to see how that happens. The flow is so progressive and flat, and the southern energy is on the weak side, with any significant development occurring offshore. Perfect set up for the MA to get screwed a different way lol.

For those holding out hope for late week, that stretched out vort max dropping down from Central Canada on Thursday is the feature to watch. It ultimately will act as the kicker, but if it digs a bit further west as it heads south, it can turn the flow a bit more ENE instead of due East. The runs that have been interesting, esp the 0z Euro and CMC, have this feature sharper and digging further west. It's a long shot for DC north any way you slice it, but there is a chance for southern parts of the region to get in on the northern fringe of the precip shield.

Y'all know how this early March 'cold' period is gonna go, right? Just save yourselves the misery and head on over to the Panic Room. Drinks are on me. The rest happens pretty quickly.

12z GFS still a whiff down that way, but it did actually take a step towards the other guidance at h5. Up here we are likely chasing a near hit at best. Maybe its a good sign that places south of here are being threatened with a little snow. I know that's in the weenie handbook somewhere.

Trend is sharper and further west with the NS 500 mb energy. Going to be difficult to get enough interaction with the ss before it gets shunted out. Looking kinda interesting for much of NC and SE VA now on recent guidance though..

ICON closer.

Yes later this week after the initial front comes through when the NS vort drops in with what looks like a reinforcing shot of cold- the period I was highlighting in my post above. NS much more pronounced(digs further south and west) on the Euro than the GFS, and ofc the CMC goes a little bonkers with it.

Yeah it just looks too warm out in front. Like you, I am waiting to see how things look beyond that.

@Weather Will You can see the difference here. The CMC is actually in a different world, and close to getting it done. Not buying that.

Given the look in the upper levels and the progressive nature, difficult to see this getting far enough north to have any notable impact in our region before getting shunted out. The NS energy dropping in is sharper on the CMC and EURO, but would probably have to come in even further west. Interesting "trends" though on some guidance, and maybe VA beach gets a glancing blow. I'm still good with the snow shower idea at this point.

It always has and continues to look like a warm storm on the means. Not really sure why anyone is expecting anything else at this juncture. It's the period beyond this that holds some potential, such that it is. Looks like a pretty brief window in early March for something, before the +AO/NAO goes bully again.

This beast is relentless.

There wont be any blocking this winter. Full stop. Any cold will absolutely be transient. This is about a temporary relaxation of the ++AO combined with a slightly better PAC, and needle threading. That's it. We got nothing else, but Spring.

We Talkin' bout snow showers. Not snowpocalypse II.

What else we got? Could end up being 1-2 for someone. Who knows. Either way, I hope you get bupkis.

Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing.

Potential comes with the secondary surge (real deal) cold. I spotted this on the Euro a few runs ago but it seemed to lose it a bit. Looks pretty decent on today's run. Something to watch.

I suppose dropping from off the charts + down to +2 qualifies as tanking this winter. It looks less positive briefly, but models have it going deep blue up top beyond that.

I even suggested we might have to make a thread. That doomed it, till now apparently lol.

I mentioned the potential for snow showers/squalls yesterday with the colder air moving in but it kinda disappeared.

I think the 12z GFS run might be a disaster but I need Ji to confirm.

Looks relatively quiet this week. Some showers ahead of the front, but otherwise dry. I'll take it.

I know you wanted to.

Only one warm rain event this week before we end it with another 2 day dry chill down. Progress.

The way I see it evolving(most likely) if that all too familiar advertised anomalous ridge in the PAC is real(pretty good bet), the trough out west will dig hard, and a ridge will build downstream behind the departing eastern cold. The only difference I see in the overall pattern is the ridging in Canada, which is rapidly losing amplitude at the end of the run as the AK and GL vortices reemerge/converge. Sure there might be a briefly "favorable" window in that mess for something, but we both know how likely it is to actually produce lol. eta- looking at the latest EPS run