CAPE

Not a surprise seeing the upgrade to Enhanced given the look on the models the past 2 days. I am slightly interested, but these threats rarely amount to much more than a gust of wind, some T&L, and maybe some heavy rain, outside of a few isolated areas. Need a derecho in these parts for something widespread.

58 here. Coolest morning of the last 3. Will be a distant memory shortly.

I was you for most of July. Rain shield was placed squarely over my yard. Been doing better lately, but the damage was done. 2-3 weeks with little to no rain in July torches everything.

Ninos come in many flavors, and can certainly fail(like last winter for many) or can be on the stronger side and torchy like 2015-16. The top indicator for cold and snow for the greater DC region is a sustained -AO through the winter months. Doesn't guarantee anything, and does not necessarily correlate to "big" winter storms, but it usually brings the anomalous cold, and increases the probability of snow events overall for the lower elevations of mid atlantic. Ofc the trifecta of -AO/-NAO and a moderate Nino is ideal, but rare.

Euro looks even better for your yard. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019081112/delaware/acc-total-precipitation/20190814-1100z.html

The latest WPC QPF is leaning that way too. Remains to be seen where the front stalls and the impact of waves moving along it. Your area should be in a good spot esp beyond Tuesday afternoon with the initial round of (severe?) convection.

Root for the 12z Euro. Has the heaviest rain through Wed AM over central/southern DE and coastal NJ. 1-3".

CFS has not been hating us for the upcoming winter. Been pretty consistent with a big EPO ridge and suggestive of cold air intrusions into the eastern half of the US. Lately it has trended to a neutral looking NAO, possibly an east based -NAO, for Dec and Jan, and then for Feb it does this..

Tuesday continues to look potentially active. Mount Holly's thoughts this morning- On Tuesday, the aforementioned low pressure, associated with a decaying MCS from the source region, will push a frontal boundary into the forecast area. The exact placement of this boundary will dictate the resulting convective evolution throughout the day Tuesday, nevertheless the environment is likely to be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Being that this event will be driven by primarily by mesoscale processes, details are still a bit unclear at this range, however all severe weather modes (including damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail) will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Deep layer shear is forecast to be in the 35-40 kt range with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some guidance has impressive low-level wind shear profiles and low-level curvature to the hodographs for this time of year. Precipitable water values will be high as well (well over 2") so flash flooding will be a threat where the heaviest storms begin to train over the same areas.

What a weekend weatherwise. Hard to beat this time of year. Currently 63.

Excluding the far western highlands, no one should ever predict a cold and snowy winter in this region.

A little over 12".

I will gladly roll the dice with a neutral ENSO, even a weak Nina. Be hard pressed to match the failure of last winter in my yard.

Looks like a super nice weekend on tap. mid 80s/low 60s and sunny.

Can you send an email that will lead to a moderate el Nino with HL blocking for DJFM?

For once getting the "fattest" part of the line, with a bit of backbuilding. 1.5" and still going. Best rain since early July. House rattling thunder too. eta- 1.65" total

Plants getting a good watering. Just hit 1.00"

Pouring with some good T&L. Boom! Too bad its just a run of the mill fast moving squall line.

Incoming!

If your yard has been persistently missed over the past month- and we are talking July- it doesn't much matter that the region has had consistent rain for much of the previous 6 or 8 months, lawns are going to burn and plants are going to be stressed. Me personally- I don't care too much because my lawn always goes to hell, so I just water the plants and enjoy being outside with no mosquitoes. I will rake out the thatch and start reseeding in a few weeks.

Just for fun and fwiw- Latest CFS runs aren't bad, as long as you look more at the height lines and don't get hung up on the anomalies too much. Suggestive of an intact PV for the first half of winter, then some displacement with cold dumping into much of Canada, especially SE portion. Looks like a combo of PV perturbation/cross polar flow. Feb would be pretty interesting. Overall the HL look is not great, probably neutral to +AO/NAO, but the E/N PAC looks pretty good throughout.

I don't recall the shaded height anomalies having that jaggy/rippled look before, but then I don't often look at this model. Usually the LR/climate models are overly smoothed. Not sure if this is an indication of the "issue" its having. Fwiw, the 2m temp anomalies are a pretty good match to what is being advertised at h5. Colder east for all of winter.

Not bad. At this point, the winter looks to be a la Nada, er neutral. I will take it. Even if it ends up cold neutral, or a weak Nina, my area can do okay. Can hardly do worse than last winter here, Anything but a moderate/strong Nina, which seems pretty unlikely at this juncture. Hopefully the QBO combined with the solar min will tilt things in our favor in the HL region. If we end up weak Nina the tendency for NS dominance will likely be the biggest challenge,

Yep. Pretty safe bet.

Getting a pretty decent soaking here. The heaviest stuff has just missed my yard as usual, but picked up 0.42" and still raining. 0.90" total since last evening. Too little, too late for most of my lawn, but at least I don't have to water the plants for a while, and my mood is better lol. I get grumpy when the rain shuts off for weeks in July and everything burns to hell.