CAPE

Since it is pretty clear we are heading towards a weak Nina for the winter at this juncture, how many weak Ninas/cold neutrals(just to expand a bit) over say the last 50 or so years have featured a -AO/-NAO for at least a third of the winter? Not that this correlates to above normal snowfall because we already know it doesn't the majority of the time with a Nina. Just trying to gauge the prospects of at least somewhat mitigating what will probably be a less than favorable Pacific, to at least improve the odds for some decent cold periods, and perhaps luck into a few well timed fluke events. Not that we will ever actually see a -AO/NAO in winter again lol.

^See Orioles, this is what good teams do. Addition by subtraction. Take the financial hit. Move on.

Ravens are about to release Earl Thomas, unless they can trade him. That would be a big bust, given the 4 year deal, and that he was mediocre in year one last season, and also the big cap hit they will take. Probably his behavior more than his performance, although they are intertwined. Very undisciplined during games.

No I get that. I am working in sections, and have areas in different stages. The first section I did a couple weeks ago almost needs cutting now, and I don't water as often, but longer when I do. But as I have said here before, in general my soil is well drained and dries out quickly. I just loosened/turned over a new area yesterday to seed, and a few inches down it was pretty dry, despite over 9" of rain this month.

Can see birds taking flight in 4 different areas, simultaneously, on the Dover radar this morning. Pretty cool.

Yeah had a few 61-63 degree mornings here. I have the sprinkler running now. Gotta keep the new grass watered to get those deep roots. Trees still robbing the soil moisture for another month or so.

Saturday, 4PM. DFH 120 min IPA consumption time. Its been a while, my very high gravity friend.

One month until the Autumnal equinox. The daily change in daylight hours will be approaching maximum over the coming weeks. Yessss!

Yeah some spits and drizzle here. .02" Looks like a pretty gross week coming up. Very warm and muggy.

Red Sox finally found a team they can beat.

Did you come up with that? If so, I am impressed lol. I like it. So it is official- the male counterpart to a Karen, is a Chad.

^According to Reddit, its either Chad. Kyle, or Keith.

lol Its one of those trendy terms/memes. Look it up on urban dictionary. I better be careful, because its probably considered sexist, although there should be the equivalent for men too.

472 cases and 3 deaths in Caroline. Living in an area with an extremely low population density has its advantages. Everyone here seems to comply with mask wearing, minus a few exceptions. Always a Karen or 2 around.

Happy Friday HH! Drinking a 'Straight outta the Southern Hemisphere' triple IPA.

The pitching is less than mediocre, and they aren't talented enough offensively to overcome that against better teams. If they play sloppy like they have at times during this losing streak, they wont beat the crappier teams either. Hopefully they can get it going back the other way and at least remain watchable.

Sorta like my bigfoot(Daryl) analogy with a -NAO.

Likely depends on the strength of the Nina. A moderate to strong Nina and +QBO likely eliminates any chance of HL blocking. A cold neutral/weak Nina AND a severely negative QBO may allow for either some HL blocking episodes or some favorable EPO periods, providing a mechanism for cold outbreaks in the east. PSU is saying his research finds no correlation, during a Nina winter, specifically between QBO and snowfall for the MA.

That would be perfect timing as long as it doesn't end up a slow moving front with rain. Having a family meetup near Luray that weekend. That would be awesome weather for some mountain hikes.

Yeah I was going to post a panel showing that, but TT just died.

TT is beyond slow now- its inaccessible.

Looking pretty toasty and humid for much of next week. Good bet we see a couple 90 degree days with pretty high dews.

DFH Oak Aged Vanilla WWS for HH. Freaking delicious.

Not surprising. As I have said, the QBO correlations seem nebulous, but in theory it impacts the strength of PV, and thus potentially the AO/NAO phases, so I would expect to see better correlation(-QBO) during a Nino, when HL blocking episodes are more prevalent (and we tend to get more snow).

CFS is on one of its better "runs" lately, Big picture h5 for Dec and Jan look pretty decent, and is a 'believable' look for a typical weak Nina. Feb doesn't look bad either, but with the massive +height anomalies it has in the EPAC, there would probably be more of a ridge in the east, although it also suggests a -NAO lol.