CAPE

Excessive rainfall discussion from WPC- South/Central Appalachians/OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Ahead of this boundary, very moist and unstable air will be in place. Some weak impulses moving atop this environment should support scattered to widespread convection. Precipitable water values will climb to around 2 inches aided by light southwesterly flow. This is around 1.5-2 standard deviations above the mean. Instability will be modest with MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. While convection is expected to move at a decent pace eastward, multiple rounds moving over pockets of lower FFG could result in isolated flash flooding across this region. Not to mention, as the front starts to sag south across southern New England, the propagation vectors will align with the mean wind parallel to the front. This will result in training of convection in some locations. Given this and the convection observed from yesterdays activity, a Marginal Risk was expanded across a large portion of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic southward into southern Appalachians and north into the OH Valley. Worked with the local offices and coordinated an upgrade to a Slight Risk across much of the central/southern Appalachians where HREF probabilities were fairly decent and FFG values were fairly low.

Yeah looks like a legit front(for July) with an upper level perturbation, and a set up that supports slow movers/training/back building. Should be juicy, and some places are likely going to see some heavy rain.

1.10" in the last 24 hours, and right about 5" for the month now. Hopefully more to come tomorrow.

Same. I saw one dude in a store, technically wearing a mask- it was hanging on his chin- not covering his nose or mouth. lol.

Yup. Some people can learn new material without actual contact/feedback from an instructor, while others find it difficult. This is where it comes down to the design and execution of the online platform- making it as analogous to the traditional classroom experience as is possible.

Even the few courses we have put online, for adults, who are motivated presumably because these courses are international requirements for them to keep doing their jobs lol, it was like herding sheep. Instructors have to constantly monitor and keep after them to login and put in the time for each module, and post on the board/chat for specific topic discussion, which substitutes for class participation.

Online can be fantastic for self motivated college students, if it is set up and managed properly. Especially Masters students for certain degree programs. The success rate falls off dramatically when you get to HS aged kids. It is so dependent on the bandwidth of the available internet technology, the parents, and the self discipline of the student, which is generally lacking at that age. So many social distractions etc.. Just my opinion.

Last night was better for sure. Its raining. Bottom line for me. I had my severe experience a week and a half ago. Just got those trees cut up- stacked and waiting for better weather to split it. 0.45" here so far, and exactly an inch over the last 2 days. I'll take it.

Raining hard here. Only a few rumbles of thunder. Nothing like last night.

Obligatory shots across the farm fields..

Some nice redevelopment as that line approaches.

Looks like the city of Baltimore is getting some torrential rain.

That bowing segment looks pretty weak now. Have to see what happens as it crosses the bay. Maybe some cold pool/outflow redevelopment. Otherwise it looks like it could be pretty uneventful for this area. The Greensboro-Goldsboro split is underway!

It could evolve that way. I'm ok if it misses. Scored decently last night, and tomorrow looks promising.

Looks like the line is bowing out as it approaches Annapolis.

Its real, but not bad the past month.

I am at 4.5" for the month. Would be nice to make it to 5 tonight. As if it matters lol. More grass shriveling up to thatch by the day. Cant win in the woods. Need to get that sun angle down..

ha, still good rains up that way!

That line needs to fill in a bit for @nw baltimore wx

90/80 here. MUCAPE and SBCAPE values of 4k+ over the Delmarva per SPC meso analysis.

89/80

I drink it as it was intended- a digestif. Plus the cold brew coffee version is much better imo.

A few Jagerbombs?

0.56" from the storm last night. Had some impressive T&L.

Mount Holly AFD on the severe threat for Wed- Kind of a mixed bag in terms of environmental parameters. Temperatures will no doubt be on the hot side, but MLCAPE values are somewhat of a question mark due to uncertainty in how much mixing will occur. While MLCAPE will certainly be sufficient for convection, there is disagreement on whether values will be "good" or "great". If dew points mix down into the 60s, convection may struggle to develop or weaken as it approaches, as some of the CAMs suggest. However, if dew points remain in the 70s, instability will be greater. So mesoanalysis with regards to the dew points will be important. In terms of shear, deep layer flow will increase as the shortwave approaches. Bulk shear has trended down a bit, and may only be in the range of 25 to 30 kt, whereas yesterday 35 kt or slightly greater looked achievable. SRH parameters also do not look as impressive, with shear profiles looking increasingly unidirectional, not to mention the generally weak low level flow. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, it is a low risk, and the better chance for that will probably be to our north where SRH is better. Given warm low levels, modest mid-level lapse rates (around 6C/km), and likelihood for linear convective organization, severe hail is also a fairly low risk. So the main hazard is going to be damaging wind. Shear values, while not great, should be sufficient for some organized multicell convection, with some of the CAMs suggesting an MCS is possible. Difficult to pin down where exactly the greatest threat is, with still a fairly wide spread in CAM solutions, hence the continued broad-brushed slight risk area in the SWODY2. Would generally favor areas further west and south (E PA and Delmarva) for the greatest chance of severe weather since they should have the best instability and since diurnal timing looks most favorable there, but a risk exists everywhere.