CAPE

I am slightly optimistic on a winter -NAO because it has been persistent throughout the summer, the QBO as we head into fall looks somewhat favorable, and we are at/near solar min. Also I believe we have had exactly 1(maybe 2) out of the last 24 winter months with an official -NAO. So we have Showme's WDI going for us.

It was posted here I believe. Pretty nice looking PAC, and EPO ridge, but meh NA.

Details! At this point it's at least nice to see the suggestion of a decent NA. CFS has been back and forth, and the Euro seasonal looks legit +NAO. We shall see. As I said, my only tracking interest over the next 1-2 months are ENSO and PDO. The rest we wont know much about until later in fall.

Looking at the latest guidance, tomorrow night , and then again Friday evening, look like the best potential for my area. And the latter depends on how fast the front moves through. That action could easily end up south of here.

Shocked me. Ofc I expect to see little to nothing here. Hope I am proven wrong, but I doubt it.

@showmethesnow Just saw this- its from Monday. Looks like he revised his initial tweet about the CanSIPS "fix". I thought the hindcast thing was mentioned in our discussion here, or maybe I saw it somewhere else. I didn't see this map posted anywhere in this thread, but maybe I missed it. Anyway it's interesting, and still a decent look.

Co-worker lives in Fed Hill. Nice area, and some great views of the Inner harbor.

This could happen with this front, if it is slow to move through and several perturbations can move along it with the front still in the area. Euro leans in that direction, while the GFS wants to basically plow the front through. Ensembles generally have it moving through more slowly. Even so, my yard would still manage to somehow miss the best precip lol.

That is a nice write up and cool vids on the SSW. I am with you on the CanSIPS. Just going to wait and see what the Sept edition looks like in about 10 days. I also expect it will look quite different.

I just want some damn moisture in the hard, desert-like soil so I can loosen it up and begin the annual task of reseeding.

Chances of decent rain over the next few days here look meh. NAM has less than a quarter inch through Sat in my yard lol. The front even looks like weak sauce on latest guidance. Certainly does not look like its going to deliver a widespread soaker. Same old haves/have nots stuff.

If you are not getting a storm now you probably won't see anything for the rest of the evening. The ongoing cells will likely weaken and die in place as we lose the daytime heating. Tired of these storms that fire on localized boundaries in a weakly forced environment. No trigger here away from the bays, and not close enough to the weak, diffuse boundary to the south and SW. That cold front better deliver something.

We get all kinds of cool cloud shots from the nearby storms that always miss. Its awesome!

I'd put money on that weakening and disintegrating before it ever makes it up our way. Or it might die and re-fire eastward in DE.

Drank quite a few from Long Trail. I especially liked this one.. http://longtrail.com/beers/vermont-double-ipa

Drinking a DFH 90 min IPA. Been into the juicy hazy IPAs lately too. Got hooked when I went up to Vermont and NH a few weeks back.

Agreed. Duclaw usually just misses the mark for my taste. They need to keep it a bit simpler. Artificial tasting peanut butter is a big ol' NO.

Would be nice to analyze/pinpoint the cause(s) of that. Been pretty persistent. Part of the reason may have to do with a topic most don't want discussed in these threads.

A bit obscured by trees, but here is the view of it a couple miles west of Easton-

I am in Easton currently, but funny you mention that- I was just looking at the line of towers to the E and SE. Pretty impressive looking, but not much happening at the surface(yet) looking at radar. eta- I needed to update my loop. its cranking pretty good between Dover and Lewes.

I guess one argument for what the CanSIPS is advertising is it would be a continuation of the HL blocking pattern that has been established for several months now. Not sure that works statistically, but one would think the WDI would apply to a -NAO for the winter months.

Weenie Drama Index?

No idea what the "issue" was so hard to speculate. You might be correct about running another simulation with the original data. I would have guessed whatever correction was implemented would be incorporated in the next edition, which is Sept 1 I think.

Yup. IMO at this stage and into early fall, the primary potential influences on the upcoming winter to keep an eye on are in the Pacific- the PDO and ENSO state. HL blocking is notoriously difficult to predict at range. I think the NAO has been predominately in the negative phase for 4 straight months. Pretty much neutral now but the guidance is a bit split on where it goes from here. The CFS favors a continuation of a -NAO into Sept. What are the odds that continues into fall and winter? I will leave the AMO/QBO/solar minimum etc. analysis/correlations to others. Without digging into it, statistically, my gut says it isn't very likely.

None of these LR/Climate tools are very reliable, as we all know from the perpetually epic EPS weeklies runs from last winter. That being said, recent runs of the CFS have advertised some big time HL blocking similar to the CanSIPS, but mostly for the back half of winter. Fun too look at and dream a little as we trudge through the dog days.