CAPE

Sitting right at 1.00" for the event. Give me more cloudy, damp days like today. Very enjoyable. High of 75.

In theory, although it seems nebulous to me, a QBO that is trending negative heading into/during the winter months, favors a weaker PV, and increases chances for a -AO/NAO, in general. During a Nina, a +AO/NAO tends to be favored, so I suppose the idea is that if the QBO is extremely negative, and the La Nina event is on the weak side, those tendencies can be mitigated, and the chances of HL blocking episodes increase. I will leave it to someone else to dig into the data for previous Nina winters to see if this has any validity.

I brought this up on the previous page, but the only info I found was from DT, and he has some of the years wrong. I will look at the links you provided. What I recalled was- wrt La Nina winters- there is a correlation to cold eastern US when there is a very negative QBO during winter, specifically during a weak Nina. It appears we are heading towards a weak Nina for fall/winter, but not so sure the QBO is going to cooperate(looking at current trends), so this may not matter.

Kinda goes without saying, but cant beat the combo of latitude and elevation, not to mention having a persistent mechanism for orographic lift. With the crappy pattern of last winter, even at this latitude places like Canaan still managed over 100" mainly because of the persistent NW flow induced snow. That usually happens even on the backside of mild inland tracking rain storms.

Got the initial heavy downpour here with some thunder, then on and off light to moderate rain overnight into this morning. 0.8" Over 6" for the month now, yet my grass is torched lol. Always a battle in the woods.

LOL I have thought about doing that whole area with fake turf. Or a hardscape.

Sprinkler? I give up lol. Reseeding will commence in 2 weeks.

Ha I'm going to cut the (mostly weeds and brown grass) when the sun gets a bit lower. Figured I would enjoy a nice beer first.

Thursday HH is sponsored by 'Double Your Citra' DIPA by Oliver Brewing.

That thing goes down a lot more than it should. Usually something mechanical related directly to the radar. You mean they don't have a backup hard drive? Or how about a redundant system? Piss-poor IT they have there.

lol Message Date: Jul 29 2020 11:52:45 KDOX IS DOWN DUE TO A CORRUPT DISK DRIVE WHICH IS PREVENTING A SOFTWARE REBOOT. PARTS ARE ON ORDER BUT A RETURN TO SERVICE SCHEDULE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

Looks active. Heavy rain threat tonight and tomorrow, with maybe some isolated damaging winds, more storms over the weekend, with a severe potential on Sunday maybe. Then we wait and see what the tropical impacts will be next week.

Most of my grass is torched but some serious rain would be fun and different.

Stalled/decaying fronts, fresh new fronts, waves moving along fronts, and tropical remnants. Looks wet over the next week. Lets hope. Heat with no action is boring af.

The clover ruins it though. It stays green.

It's happening!!

Yeah I saw that. We shall see. That next batch to the west could build more to the NE I suppose.

I was too lazy to walk beyond by wooded oasis to see it. But the amber glow was incredible. Actually made all the brown patches in my yard look attractive.

Southern MD over to the lower eastern shore are getting the goods this evening.

Looks like amber vision outside right now.

Enjoy the coolness tomorrow. Only 90 with dp maybe under 70.

GFS has been advertising a wet period, but more so for southern parts of the area. 18z moved the heavy precip totals a bit north though. With a stalled front hanging just to the south and some ul perturbations moving through, there should be some chances.

Lots of rumbling here but storms are pretty far south.

I drink the high gravity stuff lol. I also eat a healthy diet otherwise and workout everyday. Gotta do what it takes!

Drink the beer. Say no to refined sugar crap. You can keep the weight off.