CAPE

High of 49 here. Currently 43.

Everyone needs to just enjoy extended fall. Hopefully we can go abnormally dry. My WAG is we see a period of actual winter from roughly mid Jan to mid Feb, courtesy of a -EPO.

Just checking out the Carroll County highpoint on peakbagger. I think if I made my way there I would be looking at the yard of @psuhoffman

peakbagger.com is a very cool site too. It has topo maps, identifies the highest spots in every county of every state and tells you how to get to it.

No lol. The microscale elevation differences don't factor in around here when it comes to snowfall. The interior/upper shore does better because that region is a bit further north, not close to either bay, and is far enough removed from the ocean influence for winter storms that take a favorable track. My yard is almost always colder than Easton, and does better with snow esp in marginal events. I have been commuting to Easton for many years and it's interesting to see the bay influence locally, most notable during winter.

Yes just east of that general area. Chapel Rd and even running south of there. There are some spots 70+ feet.

They tend to get in up top. I actually sprayed the facia and the eaves/vents this year, and they didn't show up lol. I also wonder if they have been getting in at the ridge vent, because if they do, they are essentially in the house as I have no attic. One good indicator is none have come in through the chimney. Usually when I open the door on the wood stove insert there are bunches in there, dead and alive. Opened it the other day and not a one.

I usually see them all over the sunny side of the house in early Fall. Usually see them for weeks when the days are warm but getting shorter. I may have seen 5 total this year. Major difference. Hopefully something in nature adapted or the farmers eradicated them with insecticide. I will know soon enough. I usually see plenty in the house during winter.

The 6z GEFS wants to reshuffle the pattern a bit for early Dec- tries to establish a +PNA, with lower heights near the Aleutians. 0z GEPS says NO.

Pretty drive in this morning with heavy frost covering the landscape. Really gave the impression of a coating of snow.

24.5 Probably as low as it will go.

There actually is a "high" area east of town. Probably 60-70 feet, and the town is 30 or so. It's all relative on the eastern shore. I think the highest spot on the eastern shore is north of Chestertown. 100 feet or so. Usually when you see elevations of over 100 feet, it's a landfill lol.

25 at 5am. Might drop a bit more towards sunrise.

Unfortunately that is the default, period. The coldest air and lowest heights naturally reside in the high latitudes. It takes some work(equatorial heat transport) to disrupt that and produce anomalously positive heights up there with persistence, and with the changing climate, it seems the mechanisms required make that happen don't align as often.

Just hit 32 here at 730. eta- 30.5 at 8pm. First legit freeze. Radiating well here.

Another very short lived cold shot. Better than wall to wall ridging.

Down to 34 at 6pm. That ties the lowest temp here so far this fall.

Random op run silliness? Sure! Notice how it only snows well south of here into central/southern VA, and then rains all the way to the UP of Michigan. lol. Thats realistic! Good ol GFS at D10+..

High of 42 here. Currently 38.

The NAO 'goes like +2' every winter. Not interesting. Now a -2 otoh..

^Smoke and/or low solar will knock it back.

Extended GEFS still "evolves" the pattern to where +heights are building in the NAO domain a few days later, but it wouldn't do much good with that AK trough sitting there pumping the PAC puke and cutting off the supply of cold air. Hopefully we see a bit of a reshuffle out west by mid-month.

34 again this morning. First freeze tonight maybe. Forecast low of 26. I'll take the over.

Weeeeee!!! Time to get the Dec discussion thread started?

Yeah we have had leftover slushy slop on the ground, and snow a day or so later, but not any cases of a legit white xmas in my lifetime. I would defo take 13-14 over 15-16.The latter was a wretched torch winter with basically one week of legit winter and a big score. Epic tracking period but it was 60 degrees a few days later. I like to get out and enjoy it and it was sloppy muck before I could. Blah.