CAPE

Didn't your area get near 70 yesterday? Maybe you stayed in the marine air right near the coast. Was beautiful here with lots of sun. Back to miserable today. Been stuck at 46 with a stiff breeze and some light showers.

I hit a deer yesterday morning. All the years of living here with deer everywhere, I had never hit one. A few close calls. Anyway I have a leased vehicle that has to be turned in in 2 months, so I am getting it repaired hopefully the end of this week. Friend of mine has a "do all" car repair business, but the core business is auto body repair. Family run place, and they are usually swamped because they do excellent work. His business is down significantly now, but he has enough to keep all his employees working.

Showers just rolled in from the east here. Was hoping for another dry day. This wont amount to much, but will be just enough to be an annoyance. Currently 46. Feels raw out there.

Significant areas with only 80-95% of normal over a 90 day period? that's some serious shiit. My yard is only at 115. I am beginning to worry.

Did it actually snow before Jan 21? Oh yeah, I somehow managed to pick up a half inch at some point.

I hope you are being facetious, but I have a strong feeling you aren't. If the latter is true, please seek help.

Interesting, if not eye opening stuff. A (positive) side effect of the COVID-19 lock downs. I am sure this has been mentioned a time or two, but I just got around to really reading about it. Makes one think. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/emissions-impact-coronavirus-lockdowns-satellites/

You are at least a month late with this post.

I don't doubt there are localized areas in our general region that are at a deficit. That map, however, needs an update.

There is no longer a moisture deficit here, despite what any map shows. When the seasonal wetland on my property expands and drowns, the water table is charged. It took a while after the late summer/fall drought, but 4.3" this month has it exactly as it normally is. It fills when the water table has broken the surface, as it is low and there is no natural drainage there, so it sits until the trees become active and the longer, warmer days help to dry it up. I just hit it with larvicide, as I always do at the end of March. Normal.

Well, made it to 60. Very little sun, and zero convection within 150 miles.

Good question, and I clicked on the methods link, and found this: The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

Still cloudy but up to 60 now.

Here is a trick- and no it is NOT the same- add a bit of quality vodka to a glass, then pour the 90 min. Still tastes like a 90 min, but it jacks up the abv some.

You got one? I dont.

90 min IPA time I think.

Good stuff here. Eye opening. You can also see the projections by state. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Its creeping up here a bit, but no sign of any sun. 56 now. At this point I would be surprised to see the forecast high of 72.

That's a cool link.

Its up to 52 here!

12z 3km NAM is wholly unimpressive, but the 12z HRRR gets a modest line of convection going for N central MD later on.

Looks like a there is good amount of shear but pretty weak instability to establish/sustain updrafts. If the warm front clears early enough, and some places can get a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s, might be enough to kick off a few decent cells ahead of the cold front. This is all above my pay grade though lol.

50 and drizzle here. Temp has not budged since early morning yesterday. Forecast is still for low 70s here this afternoon, but high bust potential. I would love a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s.

Yeah I saw something like 60 cases?

Mount Holly AFD is a tad comical wrt to forecast temps tomorrow. Looks like a high bust potential.. A cold front will extend eastward then southward from the low and surge toward the area during the day as a strong midlevel jet streak races northeastward to the Northeast. As a result, the warm front should lift northward during the day, but I suspect the ageostrophic contribution to the onshore flow via upslope is being underplayed. Confidence is high enough to keep the northern CWA quite chilly tomorrow (around or below 50), whereas southern Delmarva will approach 80. Of course, temperatures in between are the tricky part and will ultimately depend on very short-term trends/guidance. In other words, expect the temperature forecast to be susceptible to considerable error in portions of the CWA. To illustrate, the latest MET MOS for PHL is 57 for tomorrow, and the latest MAV MOS projects 70. Even worse for GED: 66 versus 84. Yikes. For now, the forecast is generally weighted toward the colder NAM- based guidance but with some input from statistical guidance as well.