CAPE

Yeah I get it. I still think people get biased when they see 20" over their yards run after run, when in reality it is actually more like 10 verbatim, and then when they actually get 7..well you know.

I don't recall any snow amounts that high. The event was in and out in under 2 hours. It started with marginal temps, 33-34. Most of the snow here fell at 32 degrees, with massive aggregates. It piled up fast despite the temps. Yes the cold behind the front was impressive.

lol sorry. Hard to know when it comes to 'objectively' assessing model performance. I will say I think some folks here would be better served to never look at the ridiculous WB snow/ p-type maps and do some actual analysis of the data. I literally never look at them when I am analyzing a model run. Unfortunately I get to see them here ten times over.

I recall it being pretty well forecast at least a couple days leading up to it. It was convective in nature but fairly widespread. Totals ranged from 1 to maybe as high as 4". I maximized here pretty good with over 3. It all fell in an hour or so, and the end had a mini whiteout as the actual arctic cold came in.

I watched the globals pretty closely from the perspective of my yard, and the Euro was showing next to nothing here due to the warm temp profile, while the CMC still had significant snow, and the GFS was somewhere in between depending on the run. I am not into grading model performance, but among the globals none of them were very good 4-5 days out(surprise). The EURO(and the NAM) seemed to do better with depicting the extent of warm air intrusion inside 3 days.

We need something like the mid Feb 2015 event that kicked off our backloaded winter. Not sure how to characterize that one, but it was along a sharp cold front and intense af. That would be fun to have on Xmas eve.

Yeah its an art. Adding a subtle layer of flavor that jives with the other layers and the beer style isn't always easy. That RAR breakfast stout I drank last night was like eating a thick slab of salty, hickory smoked bacon. Not subtle. Way too heavy on the breakfast.

It seems very odd, but it's a local play on the traditional oyster stout, which does involve oyster(shells at least) in the mash. It reminds be of that type of stout, but it seems to develop an unpleasant off flavor if its not consumed within a few months. Not one of those 'better with age' beers.

Ggem does it but no cold again With a persistent vortex in/near the WPO domain, and a strong Asian-Pacific jet, it wont be easy to get super cold air in our source region. We probably need the AO to be significantly negative to mitigate that somewhat, and allow TPV lobes to break off and come south.

Now that is a legit west based block in the ideal spot for the MA.. Too bad it's a GFS op run and will never materialize.

The primary reason a -AO is number one when it comes to DC snow is it means the PV isn't a super wound up ball of doom, with all the cold locked up in the high latitudes. When there is a real deal -AO it reverses the "natural order", and allows anomalous cold to move into the midlatitudes with relative ease. As you said, we still want some NA blocking as it greatly increases chances for a favorable storm track underneath, and it is pretty much a requirement for an HECS as it inhibits a coastal storm from flying up the coast. Ofc 2009-2010 was the classic example of a negative AO/NAO working the magic.

All flavored vodkas are terrible. The fruity ones are so artificial and gross. Very chemical like. Floor cleaner?

1.22" here 66.8" for the year.

This would probably be really good mixed half and half with KBS Expresso Stout.

I think RAR changes this one up a lot. I read reviews and they don't match what I am drinking at all. This is overwhelmingly hickory smoked bacon, and maybe a hint of maple in the middle of the saltiness. Kind of hard to taste anything else.

I hate all flavored vodkas, but this is ridiculous. DFH Breakfast Stout is made with copious amounts of scrapple. It's meaty. Pretty decent. Reminds me of an oyster stout. It doesn't age well though lol.

Drinking a 1st Meal Breakfast Stout from RAR. This stuff is literally a meal. Tastes like I am chowing down on some bacon lol. Different.

This is gonna evolve into an epic (Arctic) anafrontal snow event- one of the highest probability ways to get snow around here. On quick glance I counted maybe 7-8 EPS members that produce a shot of snow during that period. Others have rain showers presumably ahead of the front.

12z Euro has a bit of a wave moving along the Arctic Front for Xmas eve. Quick shot of snow verbatim then COLD.

A continuation of generally nice h5 looks on the extended GEFS. Ends up with this one a month or so from now.

The trough was a tad too far north and negatively tilted(too soon), and with that the 850 mb low tracked overhead, and the surface low was tucked in real close. Had it evolved the same way, but a bit later/further SE, better outcome.

Yeah that's a pretty nice look at the end of the run. EPAC looks about as good as we could hope for, and the Atlantic ridge builds further north/west into southern Greenland. Looks like the 0z EPS might be heading in that direction too.

Not a flake or a sleet pellet here. Just a frozen deck and car this morning.

Just talked to a colleague in Troy- closing in on 2 feet there and still snowing. My friend in Conway NH otoh is tired of getting missed lol. That area was a huge bust zone in the last big storm up there, and now getting fringed. Probably will still end up with 6 inches or so.

Fgen forced snow bands are great when you are under them, but frustrating as hell if you are in the adjacent area of sinking air.