CAPE

This is technically round 2 now, as the actual warm front is lifting north over the area. Next we see how unstable we can get from around mid morning on. What develops at that point would be round 3, and carry severe potential, with the best chances of mixing some of that strong wind field aloft down to the surface. Winds are really picking up here now, with some heavy showers moving through.

Precisely

Looks like this will be fairly localized over the higher terrain of w VA/WV, with an upper jet, area of 700-850 fronto forcing, and probably some orographic lift thrown in- if it comes together at all. As PSU said, Euro is not impressive with the dynamics on the latest run. Either way it looks to be very elevation dependent for any accumulating snow. No shocker there.

Pretty reasonable for mid April, right?

This is clearly an elevation "event". 2000 ft+ probably a few inches of wet snow. Once you get down to 1000 ft, maybe some wet slush bombs mixed in. Below that, it's a chilly rain. LOL at snow in southern NJ. Keep those maps coming though!

I think wine is more appropriate for Easter, but I will get to that later, with dinner. Right now a Voodoo Ranger IPA is doing the trick.

Well, Mount Holly went with a fairly widespread High Wind Warning. I thought it might only be hoisted for the immediate coastal counties of DE and NJ.. ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with 50 to 60 mph gusts expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central, northern and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday that could result in even stronger wind gusts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

My hope is renewed everyday, right around 4 pm.

There is a big oak tree on the edge of the lot next to me that is leaning and the root ball is lifting on the one side. Just noticed this the other day, and it probably got worse in the recent wind event. Its going to uproot, just a matter of time. Its not near the house, but if it falls it will completely block my driveway. It is leaning in a NNE direction, so the winds in the upcoming event might do it.

@frd How is your grass coming along?

I mentioned this in the severe thread, but probably the high wind watch will go to a warning for the immediate coasts of DE and NJ, with advisories elsewhere. In our region, this area is most likely to see gusts to 60.

I have a feeling the watch here will end up being an advisory, with a warning along the coasts of DE and NJ, and also the western highlands.

These suckers are vectors for all sorts of nasty stuff as it is- don't need to add something else. I have one clear source of mosquitoes here, a woodland (non-tidal) wetland- that is wet in the late winter/early Spring then it dries up. If I hit it with larvicide a couple times, the only mosquitoes I see around my place in the summer are ones that can be easily controlled my not having objects/places near the house where small amounts of water can sit for a few days after it rains.

Ha mostly yeah. Its dried up back there quite a bit with the low dews and all the wind and minimal rain over the past 10 days. A tad concerned about the wind potential here(tree issues), but that almost never materializes to an extreme. Hopefully the high wind watch here goes to an advisory later on.

@Weather Will These snowfall maps are cool and all, but how about posting a total precip map from the 0z Euro for the next 2 days? Thanks.

It is known to do well in the shade, and I can attest to that. My issues with it in the past was it burning up in the part of the yard that gets many hours of direct sun.

Looks great! Black Beauty is the shiit. Pricey but worth it. I went away from it when it failed during a really dry period several years ago. I never found anything better though, and they have improved the drought tolerance since then. I just mowed mine for the second time today. Has some weedy stuff mixed in but such is life in the woods. I couldn't put any pre-emergent down because the grass wasn't mature from last fall. I have not had a lawn like this for many years lol.

High wind watch in effect here, Oh joy, haven't had enough of that. Monday looks interesting for sure. Latest AFD from Mt Holly on the potential: A significant storm system producing both strong and damaging winds and heavy rain is gearing up to affect the region from late Sunday night through Monday. Broad low pressure will continue to develop and organize over the Midwest Sunday evening as a deep upper trough digs through the western U.S. Meanwhile, out ahead of this low, a strong 70-80 kt LLJ at 925 mb and 80-90 kt winds at 850 mb will lift through the region Monday morning through Monday afternoon. In addition, a southerly pressure gradient will tighten over the region as the low rapidly intensifies, lowering from around 994 mb Sunday evening over the Midwest to around 980 mb by Monday evening. The NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate a low level inversion that would suggest that the strongest winds would remain aloft. However, with a tight gradient, and with heavy rain showers through the morning, there should be strong enough mixing. Generally expecting wind gusts of 40-50 mph in the southern Poconos, far NW New Jersey, and through the Lehigh Valley. For the rest of southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, the rest of New Jersey, and Delmarva, wind gusts will generally range from 50-60 mph, and there is the potential for even stronger winds right along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, possibly as high as 60-70 mph. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for most of the region, except for the far northern zones.

How is your black beauty doing? I am amazed at how well mine has come on so early. I had probably 8 weeks of growth last fall before it went dormant, and it looked pitiful at the end of Feb into early March. I put down some starter fertilizer, and March was nice and wet, and man it looks like a golf course green now lol. I only hope I can keep it looking good for a year. Harsh here in the woods, esp with well drained soil.. and moles.

There is no collective "we" when it comes to this.

The first 'phase' will be relaxation of some of the restrictions, and it will occur state by state. Its not like Trump is just going to say, OK we all open for business now! Some of the red state governors may go with that, but it wont happen that way in most states. In MD, Hogan will make the call as to when it is prudent to remove the stay at home order, and when to allow restaurants, etc to reopen.

Ever been on there? Little to no intellectually honest discourse takes place lol. Even if you 3 attempted to do it, you would be trolled mercilessly.

I did see a few mins of graupel here yesterday.