CAPE

Wes had a great CWG article on the phases/states of the indices wrt to DC snowfall years ago, with some scatter plots to illustrate. -AO has the highest correlation to above avg snow in DC, and when that occurs we almost always have a -NAO too. That being said, there are other ways to get there as we saw with favorable EPO/WPO in back to back winters several years ago, with little to no help from the the AO/NAO. That setup has a high risk of cutters for anything amped though. Ofc we also want ENSO to be warm neutral to moderate Nino in general for big snow in these parts.

I agree we need significant HL help, particularly for the first half of winter with a moderate Nina. The ens means have been pretty persistent in advertising a -NAO in recent runs so thats a good sign- all caveats apply about verifying in real time. We are also seeing a western US ridge return on the means beyond day 10, and that would be be big in conjunction with a favorable NA in getting some cold aimed more towards the east. My posts about the EPO are wrt to the back half of winter. Assuming the Nina is going to continue to weaken some moving forward, we may see more of a tendency for ridging over AK at times later in winter. It would be great if the NA remains generally favorable throughout, and maybe it will, but recent history says otherwise. If a SWE does occur, who knows how that may shuffle things in the troposphere down the road, or if it will have any impact at all.

That should take its toll in the second half. Unless Roman does something dumb with the game plan again.

Defense is pretty awful outside of the one interception. No pressure. Got away with a flagrant PI.

Feels like I am watching an entertaining game between 2 really bad teams

Boykin??? lol wow

The false starts...****.

LOL This is how you lose to the cowboys.

Ravens are so perplexing. Tucker kicks the ball short,which is rare, and the ST coverage effs up. Way to give it right back.

Its all good. No worries. Player safety first!!

Was just thinking that. I am sure they are scrambling now with contact tracing.

Time for Hollywood to pull out of his funk. He had a nice play towards the end of the Steelers game, so maybe he has some mojo.

Yeah wtf. They better run for 200+.

I am generally of the belief that we ultimately need some decent PAC periods to have success this winter. I keep saying it, but I have more faith in a favorable EPO period than a blockbuster NA saving us from a persistently crappy Pacific.

Better looks, but same results so far. It's super early though. The next few weeks will be telling.

I have no idea what to expect from the Ravens tonight. They have some key players back, but minimal practice and some may show some post covid fatigue? Biggest concern is the lack of talent at TE now, and the continued reshuffling of the OL. Hopefully Dallas is as bad as advertised on the defensive side of the ball.

Well thought out post. Can't disagree with anything here.

Just where we want it, as they say...whoever they are.

EPS keeps the AO and NAO at least slightly negative through the end of the run.

And the very end of the 6z GEFS run looks like this. Western ridge amplifies and sends a chunk of cold southward. I Have seen worse looks on Christmas eve.

You have a guest room? I can pay with craft beer.

Yeah the 15th looks semi interesting, but not much cold air around. The 17-18th window has plenty of shortwave action and it would be colder, so that may be more realistic if we can get things to come together in time. Verbatim its too late on the 0z run and NE gets snowed on again.

No Andrews tonight, so the Ravens, who rely heavily on their TEs in both the run and passing game, will have Luke Willson(LOL) and a couple of practice squad players. Of all the injuries this season, losing Boyle is the worst. I bet they wish they still had Hayden Hurst.

Giants stunned Seattle, and WFT took out the Steelers. Another team from "lowly" NFC east gets a chance to upset a "better" team tonight. As putrid as Dallas has been, the Ravens will stumble enough to keep it close, and it would be no surprise if the Cowboys manage to win.

Clearly they are one of the best teams, and in the end every team is what their record says they are. If you do the analysis though, it reveals they are on the same level as a handful of other really good teams.You tend to miss the subtle points, so I will agree in general and leave it at that.