CAPE

Still super marginal with temps at 850 and surface, but trending in the right direction. Maybe a wet paste job.

Plenty of ground fog and heavy frost. Low of 29 but 31 this morning.

Yeah we could use a few more that have snow in my yard.

Not a big believer in the Monday event producing much frozen for the lowlands at this juncture. If the heavier precip gets further north, probably a better chance for the nw burbs..

6z GEFS early week deal.

Just looking over the 0z runs. Overall good stuff for the mid week potential. For I-95/east the CMC op has pretty much an ideal outcome for a mid December storm. Good track, doesn't amp too much/go negative, and the confluence is not displaced so the surface high ends up in a pretty ideal spot. Still a long way to go.

33 at 8PM

One of my go to places has a few bottles left from a year ago on sale. I have been bypassing it for other stouts, but tomorrow might be the day I pick it up.

Recent runs seem to be moving away from that idea. Stay tuned!

Still not overly enthused about Monday for our area, but it isn't dead. The mid week period holds more potential, but plenty of details to be resolved. In short, we simply cannot know.

Unless one simply likes hand wringing over details of a singular op run 5+ days out, love this panel and live for the next model cycle.

With the high pressure positioned nearly overhead, clear skies, and no air movement, temps will quickly drop below freezing, and over this way there is a freezing fog potential, esp over in DE and into NJ. Freezing Fog Advisory in effect for just NE of here.

Mount Holly mentions the potential in their AFD.. On Tuesday into Wednesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the southeast coast into the Mid Atlantic region. The current track from the model guidance keeps the low right along the coast. This would bring precipitation to the entire forecast area starting Wednesday morning, and continuing into Wednesday night. As of now, it looks like this would be a rain/snow event. As always, the track will determine the p-types. But it looks like much of the area could see some snow at some point during the evening, with an accumulating snow possible for some areas. We`re still a week away, so we`ll have several changes before then, but definitely worth watching.

I like the more neutral trough axis this run vs 0z, when it was tilting negative as it approached. That likely wont work for places east of the highlands this time of year without super cold air in place.

I am fine with him. He likes to post the twitter weather geek stuff. Some of it is interesting.

The inherent shookness of the weather weenie.

This is actually a decent look. Better than the GEFS surface depiction at that time.

The confluence/convergence up there is something to keep an eye on in future runs. That 50-50 low is moving pretty quick on the latest GFS runs as the trough digs and heights build in front. Surface HP is on the move further NE as a result. It might help if the developing block was further along, or a bit more expansive, to hold that low in position longer.

It's always difficult to predict how long it will persist. I like seeing the core of the +height anomalies shift further sw later in the ensemble runs, more towards the Davis Strait and Baffin. That's the sweet spot for the MA. Initially it looks to be focused over the Northern half of Greenland.

Just looking at the GFS, the trough amplifies and goes negative pretty early. That general idea would be problematic for the lowlands. Interior elevated areas could do well as long as it doesn't track too far inland. Still about a week out, so plenty to be resolved.

Shit ton of rain though. Immediately followed by cold and windy!!

Latest extended GEFS run looking towards early Jan. Lets add a -EPO to the -AO/NAO.

Horchata 10w-40 Imperial Stout from Hi-Wire for HH This is one of those stouts with a lot going on and it all works beautifully. Almond/amaretto aroma, dark bittersweet chocolate and spicy cinnamon on the palate, and smooth, almost creamy mouthfeel.

December 2009! 2020 redux, Nina style?