Look where the NA ridge is located. Cant have a high and a low in the same place. Ideally we want the +heights focused further NW. There are hints of that towards the end of the ens runs.
Troughs dumping too far west and shortwaves amplifying too soon/west is a tendency during Ninas correct? I think this is what we are going to be battling as we try to time up a storm with a favorable NA. Hopefully we can get a bit of a PNA ridge at just the right time.
Its one op run. I am just looking at it at face value. Not making any broader conclusions. I evaluate at h5, not the surface, and I can tell ya I saw where this run was heading pretty quickly.
Exactly.
Ji zooms in on one feature and thinks just because it exists, there can only be one possible result. It cuts because the PAC is crap and an eastern ridge pops.
The trailing energy after the main precip(rain) moves out is the thing to watch. Wont be anything widespread but possibly some hefty snow showers/squalls in places. GFS hinting at it, and the 12z 12Km NAM a bit. Have to watch the Mesos as we get closer.
The window for something looks to begin after the late month warm Miller B garbage event.
The GFS will do what the GFS does with shortwaves coming east under a block at range.
Ravens need to get in first. We need the Steelers to get their shit together. Their final 2 games are against the Colts and Browns. Ravens have the tiebreaker over both.