CAPE

No worries. I am the one who first posted about it here when it first came out. Does not appear to have been updated on TT- same initialization time, and the h5 panels for DJF look the same. The updated (fixed) run seems to have the same look overall based on the Ventrice post.

No x 2.

It appears the initialization issue has not changed the overall 500 mb idea. Its August. Its freaking hot. This is feel good stuff until we get to mid October when we might start to get some actual legit clues about how early winter will behave. The 2 indices to monitor over the next couple months are ENSO and PDO. eta- and SAI of course.

Defo on my bucket list.

Interesting read from the late afternoon AFD from Mount Holly for the Tuesday potential.. On Tuesday, a dying surface boundary will be stalled over the region, with a shortwave trough approaching. This will yield a good opportunity for convection. The setup for Tuesday is concerning from a hydro perspective. Pattern bears strong resemblance to the Maddox "Type 2/Frontal Event" pattern which is one of three patterns well known to favor flash flooding in our region. One or more slow moving and potentially backbuilding rounds of convection may develop in the vicinity of this boundary on Tuesday, with activity likely continuing deep into the night (another hallmark of the Maddox pattern just mentioned). With PWATs rising near to above 2", it`s hard to see there not being issues with flash flooding. Am not confident on which areas will have the best chance for activity, though if anything would probably favor the western half of the region at least during the daytime hours. With time, convective coverage may become fairly widespread. Cannot discount the severe risk Tuesday either. Weak shear should help limit the organization of storms. However, strong instability is likely to build, which should yield tall, slow moving storms with a threat for downbursts/wet microbursts and possibly some threat for hail in the tallest storms. Hot weather will continue on Tuesday as the weak frontal boundary does not have any sort of notable cooling behind it.

Per radar estimate- one hour total of 2" north part of the city.

There was one cold day after it fell before temps shot up into the 50s and 60s and the snow went to granular slop. Could hardly get out to enjoy it. The best part of that winter was tracking the event for week.

The dry slot was the end here. Maybe a half inch of additional accumulation after about noon. In retrospect, I really dislike that storm (as much as you can hate on an underperforming 15" event), and that entire torch of a winter sucked. Easing into bitter mode.

I don't hate the look in the EPAC and around AK for Dec and Jan. If we don't get much cooperation from the AO/NAO, we are gonna need a generally favorable PAC for a chance at a decent winter around here.

Picked up 0.18" from a couple quick pop-up cells. Very localized- the type that normally always miss my yard.

0.00" of rain in the last week. Yes Yoda, I will be complaining, yet again.

Weekend into early next week is looking hot. Several days in the low to mid 90s with HI 100+ likely for urban areas by Monday. I really want fall to come early this year.

That one was forgettable here lol. I appreciated it for the historic nature, but the track was too far west and it turned to 40 degree rain after 7-8" of heavy wet snow. Dry slotted after that. What was left froze and left an iceberg for a day or so.

Yeah the only BIG events I recall when I was living in Carroll County were the Feb 1979 storm(PD I) and the Feb 1983 storm. Lost plenty of brain cells since then, but those clearly stand out. Looks like some of the biggest events in recent times occured in my present location before I moved here lol.

Eastern areas got destroyed. Wow. I knew it was a big NE storm, but did not realize there was such a high impact for the coastal plain down this way.

I don't recall the 78 storm at all. Again I was in Carroll county, and that area was on the western fringe of heavy snow, so a 6-8" storm with some wind would not stand out as much in memory as a storm like the Blizzard of 1979.

I had maybe..12? Cloudy with high dews and no trigger for storms. BUST, and gross.

Satellite image for Blizz of 79. Looks a lot like BOMB CYCLONE from 2018 that hit the immediate coast. Main difference is the track. IIRC, models back then had it tracking further offshore until the end, thus is was a surprise for many and forecasters were scrambling.

I was a kid in Carroll county at the time. That storm probably locked me in as a weather geek for life. Looking at the map, kinda got fringed lol. I recall the total being right around 20". Areas around the bay got clobbered.

Mount Holly's latest take.. Not sure this will pan out. This looks like a graceful step down to what will be a lame event. Most of the action now looks like it will be well south in the Wakefield, VA forecast area. Convection and an associated convectively enhanced shortwave trough is located across the Ohio Valley and moving eastward toward our region. Some showers have already moved into the region from the west. Will expect to see this activity continue through the morning hours with coverage and intensity increasing as the day progresses. This will lead to quite a bit more cloud cover than previously expected, especially across the northern half of the area. As a result, confidence has decreased for this area to see much in the way of destabilization this afternoon. This will preclude any severe weather or excessively heavy rainfall threat for the northern portion of the forecast area. Therefore, we have shrunk the size of the Flash Flood Watch and removed all northern NJ and Lehigh Valley counties. The heaviest rainfall is currently forecast to fall from northern Delmarva east across southern NJ where training of heavy thunderstorms appears more likely at this time. Farther south across Delmarva and far southern NJ, considerable destabilization still appears to be probable, especially if excessive cloud cover remains to the north. MLCAPE values of 1500- 2000 with 35-40 kts of deep layer shear are still forecast across the areas with the most destabilization. In this case, the severe weather threat remains in play with all hazards possible (damaging winds/isolated tornadoes/large hail), but damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. SPC has removed the enhanced risk from our area, but Delmarva and extreme southern NJ remain in the slight risk with the marginal risk still covering SE PA and central/southern NJ.

Not difficult at all. Acquire high quality, local, fresh ingredients, add in a little execution, and chow the fuk down. And don't forget the presentation. You know you want to eat that.

My (significantly) better version of a Five Guys bacon double cheeseburger, made with local grass fed beef, local tomatoes, and grilled over charcoal on the Weber. Paired with a DFH 90 Min IPA.

Yes. Just wait till winter gets here.

Happens less than a snowstorm in DC.

It does get frustrating. I really enjoyed making posts complaining about failing to get rain in every possible way. Yoda seemed to like them. Have at it!